Text/Chen Haoxing
The "report card" of China's economy in the third quarter was released on the morning of the 18th.
China News Service held the "Economic Situation Analysis Meeting for the Third Quarter of 2024", inviting six economists to give authoritative interpretations from various fields such as macro, employment, consumption, foreign trade, and real estate.
How did the data perform in the third quarter? What is the economic situation in the fourth quarter and the whole year, and can the expected targets for this year be achieved as scheduled?
Consumption growth is "stable in total volume and new in increment"
In the first three quarters, the total retail sales of consumer goods 353564 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%.
Wang Wei, former director of the Institute of Market Economy, Development Research Center of the State Council. Photo by Zhao Bin
Wang Wei, former director of the Institute of Market Economy of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said at the third-quarter economic situation analysis meeting that the total volume is stable and the increment is new, which is the basic trend of China's current consumption growth.
Wang Wei said that from the perspective of consumer demand, the year-on-year growth rate of consumption in the first three quarters, especially in the third quarter, gradually stabilized, and the role of consumption as the main driving force of national economic growth continued to be stable. On the whole, consumption is now stable in aggregate and increased in innovation, and some relatively important structural adjustments have been achieved.
She said that in the first three quarters of this year, in addition to the relatively stable sales of physical goods, service consumption is also growing rapidly. In the first three quarters, retail sales of services increased by 6.7% year-on-year, higher than the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in the same period.
Wang Wei said that with the support of the trade-in policy of consumer goods, the sales of household appliances for old and new products have grown rapidly, and the policy effect is more obvious. According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, as of October 15, 20.667 million consumers have applied, and 10.134 million consumers have purchased 14.624 million units of 8 categories of household appliances, enjoying 13.17 billion yuan of central subsidies, driving sales of 69.09 billion yuan.
She said that in the process of changing consumer demand, the incremental "new" is also reflected in the fact that digital consumption still maintains rapid growth. In addition, new tracks and new needs are also emerging. Since the beginning of this year, some new products, new brands, new consumption scenarios, new service models and new creative consumption have been emerging, which has promoted the accelerated growth of many new tracks on the supply side. For example, the launch of new milk tea products has accelerated, and there are relatively many new brands in the fields of new energy vehicles, clothing and apparel.
The performance of foreign trade exceeded expectations
In the first three quarters, the total value of China's import and export of goods was 32.33 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.3%, and exceeded 32 trillion yuan for the first time in the same period in history. In addition, the import and export value of foreign trade in each quarter was above 10 trillion yuan, reaching 10.15 trillion yuan, 11 trillion yuan and 11.17 trillion yuan respectively, which was also the first time in the same period in history.
Zhang Jianping, vice chairman of the Chinese Society for Socio-economic System Analysis. Photo by Zhao Bin
Zhang Jianping, vice chairman of the China Society for Socio-economic System Analysis, said at the third-quarter economic situation analysis meeting that China's foreign trade performance in the first three quarters of this year exceeded expectations.
In Zhang Jianping's view, China is now the world's largest manufacturing center, and the added value of manufacturing accounts for about one-third of the world's total. As the only country in the world with a near-full-scale industrial system, China continues to encourage independent innovation and independent property rights, which have boosted the high-quality growth of foreign trade.
He also pointed out that at present, China has achieved remarkable foreign trade results through high-quality Belt and Road cooperation and the implementation of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). In the first three quarters, China's trade with more than 160 countries and regions around the world achieved growth. Among them, the total import and export volume to the "Belt and Road" countries reached 15.21 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, higher than the overall growth rate of foreign trade. Imports and exports to ASEAN reached 5.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 9.4 percent.
In addition, he said that from the perspective of the global market, the growth trend of global foreign trade this year is obvious. According to the latest forecast of the WTO, the growth rate of global foreign trade will reach 2.6% this year. As the world's largest country in trade in goods, China has contributed the most to the growth of global foreign trade. If it can be realized as scheduled, it indicates that even in the face of the challenge of de-globalization, China can still stabilize the growth of foreign trade.
The incremental policy package will continue to be effective
Guo Liyan, deputy director of the Economic Research Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomics. Photo by Zhao Bin
Guo Liyan, deputy director of the Economic Research Institute of the China Academy of Macroeconomics, said at the third quarter economic situation analysis meeting that a series of relevant measures to shape China's new kinetic energy and new advantages have been implemented, and the results have continued to appear, and remarkable results have been achieved in promoting the conversion of new and old kinetic energy and the steady development of new quality productivity. It is mainly reflected in three aspects: climbing high, moving towards the new, and transforming to green.
Climbing to the top means higher added value and higher quality. Guo Liyan said that at present, the growth rate of the mainland's commercial aerospace, aerospace, low-altitude economy, biological manufacturing, and other typical areas of new quality productivity is obvious. In addition to high-tech manufacturing, high-tech services and information technology services also remained in the boom range. The support of the high-tech service industry for the development of high-tech industries is accelerating the generation of new quality productive forces and promoting related industries to climb to a high level.
Moving towards the new is reflected in the acceleration of the promotion of the trade-in of the old for the new and the development of new quality productive forces in various localities. Guo Liyan said that the relevant data show that the "two new" policies (large-scale equipment renewal and consumer goods trade-in) and the implementation rules of various supporting implementations have achieved remarkable results. It not only improves the market correlation environment of enterprise revenue and upstream and downstream support, but also accelerates the cycle between new supply and new consumption, creating good conditions for accelerating the improvement of the demand side and stimulating the potential of more effective demand.
The transition to green is reflected in green, low-carbon and high-quality development. Taking new energy vehicles as an example, from January to September this year, the production and sales of new energy vehicles both exceeded 8.3 million, a year-on-year increase of more than 30%, and exports maintained a double-digit growth rate.
Guo Liyan believes that it is not easy for China's new energy vehicles to achieve such results. At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the national market continues to rise. In September, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the domestic market reached 53%, which provides a good opportunity for the development of intelligent networked vehicles in the future and the promotion of the automobile industry to climb high and transform to green.
Looking forward to the trend of the whole year and the fourth quarter, Guo Liyan believes that the current effective demand of China's economy is still insufficient, and it is necessary to further stimulate its potential. The key is to concentrate efforts and systematically implement a package of incremental policies. The incremental policy package will continue to be effective in the fourth quarter of this year and next year. The improvement of the actual business environment, the improvement of efficiency, and the enhancement of expectations of various business entities will provide a good foundation for stabilizing the macroeconomic speed and promoting the optimization of the national economic structure and the improvement of quality and efficiency.
At present, the property market has some conditions to stop falling and stabilize
In the first three quarters, the sales area of newly built commercial housing in China decreased by 17.1% year-on-year, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points compared with the first half of the year, narrowing for four consecutive months; the sales of newly built commercial housing decreased by 22.7% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.3 percentage points compared with the first half of the year, and narrowed for five consecutive months; the funds in place for real estate development enterprises decreased by 20.0% year-on-year, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points compared with the first half of the year, and narrowed for six consecutive months. In addition, China's real estate development investment fell by 10.1% year-on-year in the first three quarters, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
Ni Pengfei, Director of the Center for Urban and Competitiveness Research, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Photo by Zhao Bin
Ni Pengfei, director of the Urban and Competitiveness Research Center of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said at the third quarter economic situation analysis meeting that the decline in real estate data in September slowed down significantly compared with the first half of the year, and the current real estate expectations have changed from weak to strong.
Ni Pengfei pointed out that the property market has some conditions to stop falling and stabilize. At present, China's macroeconomic potential and resilience are relatively large, and now there are some positive changes. In particular, in terms of macroeconomic regulation and control, not only has the intensity been intensified, but also major changes have taken place in the mode of regulation and control, opening an important floodgate for promoting the sustained improvement of the macroeconomy through policies.
Recently, the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and other departments have issued a series of real estate regulation and control policies, adjusting and canceling restrictive measures for house purchases, reducing the interest rate on existing housing loans, and adding the implementation of urban villages and the renovation of dilapidated houses.
Ni Pengfei said that strong policies have created conditions for the market to bottom out and stabilize, and these policies together have theoretically been able to achieve potential release and expected improvement, and the next policy implementation is the top priority.
Two major positives drove the PMI to rebound more than expected in September
In the first three quarters, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8 percent year-on-year. In September, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.8%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month.
Wei Qijia, Director of the Industrial Economics Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the State Information Center. Photo by Zhao Bin
Wei Qijia, director of the Industrial Economics Research Office of the Economic Forecasting Department of the State Information Center, said at the third-quarter economic situation analysis meeting that China's PMI (manufacturing purchasing managers' index) rebounded more than expected in September due to seasonal factors and previous policies.
Wei Qijia pointed out that the unexpected rebound in PMI in September was affected by seasonal factors and previous policies. But he also said frankly that the lack of effective demand has produced a certain pressure on the steady operation of the industry in the future, and it is necessary to face up to such difficulties, pay attention to the balance between the industrial chain and the balance of the growth of industrial categories, especially to implement the current various inclusive bail-out policies to promote the steady operation of the industrial field.
The RMB exchange rate fluctuated mainly in the fourth quarter
Xie Yaxuan, deputy director of China Merchants Securities Research and Development Center. Photo by Zhao Bin
Xie Yaxuan, deputy director of China Merchants Securities Research and Development Center, said at the third-quarter economic situation analysis meeting that based on the supply and demand of foreign exchange and the external dollar index, the RMB exchange rate will still be mainly volatile in the fourth quarter, but it is more likely to be stronger.
Xie Yaxuan pointed out that the RMB exchange rate in the fourth quarter should consider the trend of the US dollar, as well as the supply and demand of the domestic foreign exchange market. On the whole, the foreign trade situation this year is good, and the settlement and sale of foreign exchange under trade will support the RMB exchange rate in the fourth quarter.
In terms of interest rates and exchange rates, Xie Yaxuan expects that the long-term interest rate will not be as smooth as the first three quarters due to the impact of fiscal force expectations. In terms of exchange rates, weaker exports and a slowdown in the depreciation of the US dollar may interfere with the trend of the RMB exchange rate in the fourth quarter, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7 to 7.3.
Source: The country is a through train
Editor: Gao Yanjiao
Editor-in-charge: Wei Xi