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3 blows, who will be the winner in the end? Under the shadow of the "nuclear" of Iran and Israel, where is the situation in the Middle East heading?
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The number "3" symbolizes a certain structure of stability in many cultures, but in today's tense Middle East, this number represents a disturbing unknown, since Iran's massive missile attack on Israel on October 1 this year, the military actions of the two sides, and the unflinching tough statements, seem to push the entire region to the brink of war. In the foggy Middle East, no one can give a definite answer
Chapter 1: Missile Rain, Quds Quds Tremble—Israel's Retaliation, Anger or Calculation?
On October 1, night fell, the moonlight, a symbol of peace, was torn apart by the sudden light of fire, dozens of missiles fell from the sky, aimed directly at Israel, explosions, sirens, and cries intertwined, breaking the silence of Jerusalem at night
The latest Iran attack on Israel and the largest in recent years — according to the Israel military, the missiles came from Iran's Lebanon Allah militant group and were aimed at retaliating for Israel's previous airstrikes on Iran targets in Syria
The international community condemned the attack and called on both sides to exercise restraint to avoid further escalation, which is not only a simple military provocation for Israel, but also a serious challenge to its national security and regional hegemony
"We will not tolerate any attacks on our citizens," Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a televised statement after the attack, in a tough tone, "We will defend ourselves by all necessary means."
Netanyahu's tough statement is undoubtedly sending a clear signal to Iran: retaliation is coming, and Israel's retaliation will not be a simple "tooth for tooth"
According to Israel media reports, the Israel military has developed several retaliatory plans against Iran, including:
Precision strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran: this is what Israel has always wanted to do, and it is the option that worries the international community most about the deadly threat to their national security if they Israel Iran possess nuclear weapons
Destruction of Iran's military bases and arsenals: Israel seeks to undermine Iran's influence in the region by countering its military power and preventing it from continuing to provide support to proxy forces such as Lebanon's Allah Party
Strikes on Iran's economic lifeblood, such as attacks on Iran's oil facilities, ports, and vital infrastructure, in an attempt to force Iran into submission through economic sanctions
Israel's retaliatory plans also face enormous risks and challenges
Iran is not a "soft persimmon", as an important force in the Middle East, Iran has strong military strength and rich combat experience, once Israel launches a large-scale military strike, Iran is bound to resolutely counterattack, then the entire Middle East region will be plunged into war
The international community generally opposes Israel's military action, and although United States is a staunch ally of Israel, it has also made it clear that it does not want to see Israel wage war against Iran, and Russia, China and other countries have also called on all parties to exercise restraint and resolve disputes through dialogue and negotiation
In the face of a complex situation, Israel's retaliatory actions appear to be particularly cautious, knowing full well that any rash action may lead to unpredictable consequences, under the dual pressure of national security and regional hegemony, will Israel really choose to be patient?
Chapter 2: The Roar of the Persian Male Lion – Iran's Counterattack, Is It a Bluff or a Broken Boat?
In the face of Israel's military threat, Iran did not choose to remain silent, on the contrary, they issued a tougher declaration of counterattack, like an enraged male lion, with a deafening roar
"If Israel dares to attack us, we will make them pay an unbearable price!" Fadawi, deputy commander of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, said in an interview that "our missiles can cover the entire territory of Israel, including their nuclear facilities, military bases, ports, airports, and even every city."
Fadawi's warning is not a bluff, Iran has the largest and most comprehensive missile arsenal in the Middle East, including ballistic missiles with a range of up to 2,000 kilometers, enough to cover all of Israel, and Iran also has a large number of drones and cruise missiles that can carry out precision strikes against Israel targets
In addition to a military counterattack, Iran could retaliate against Israel by other means, Iran could block the Strait of Hormuz, cut off the global oil supply chain, deal a heavy blow to Israel's ally United States and European countries, and Iran could wage a proxy war against Israel by supporting armed forces such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Palestine
Iran's tough statement, on the one hand, is aimed at deterring Israel and preventing it from acting rashly; On the other hand, in order to show its tough stance at home and abroad and safeguard national dignity and interests, Iran's tough attitude may also exacerbate regional tensions and push both sides into the abyss of war
In the eyes of analysts, Iran's tough statement has both its confidence and its helplessness
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Iran has abundant oil resources and an important geostrategic location, which is an important bargaining chip for it to dare to confront Israel, and Iran also has a strong military force and a firm anti-American stance, which makes Israel and United States dare not act rashly against it
Iran is also facing huge domestic and foreign pressures, United States' long-term economic sanctions have put Iran's economy in trouble, and domestic public dissatisfaction with the government is also accumulating, in this case, the Iran government needs to divert domestic contradictions and consolidate its rule through a tough foreign posture
Chapter 3: The Game in the Shadow of Nuclear Weapons: The Middle East Situation: Towards War or Peace?
The confrontation between Israel and Iran is not only a conflict between two countries, but also a microcosm of the geopolitical game in the Middle East, in which external forces such as United States, Russia, and European countries play an important role
United States is a staunch ally of the Israel and has always been hostile to Iran, and during the Trump administration, United States withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal and imposed severe economic sanctions on the Iran, trying to force Iran to submit through "maximum pressure", United States sanctions did not achieve the desired effect, but only intensified nationalist sentiment in the Iran, making it more determined to embark on the path of confrontation United States
Russia has close relations with Iran and is an important arms supplier and political partner of Iran, and on the Syria issue, Russia and Iran stand on the same side and jointly support the Syria government in fighting opposition forces, and Russia does not want to see Israel wage war against Iran, because this will destabilize the Middle East region and harm Russia's interests
The relationship between European countries and Iran is complicated, and European countries hope to maintain the JCPOA and avoid Iran's development of nuclear weapons; European countries are also worried about Iran's expansion in the Middle East and a threat to their interests, and in the confrontation between Israel and Iran, European countries try to play the role of mediators, calling on both sides to exercise restraint and resolve disputes through dialogue and negotiation
In the complex regional situation and international relations, the confrontation between Israel and Iran is full of variables
Risk of war: If Israel launches a large-scale military strike against Iran, Iran is bound to resolutely retaliate, and the entire Middle East will be plunged into war, and may even trigger a world war
Hope for Peace: With the good offices of the international community, it is possible for Israel and Iran to return to the negotiating table and resolve their differences through dialogue and consultation
Continuation of the stalemate: The confrontation between Israel and Iran is likely to continue for a long time, with the two sides engaged in fierce games in various fields such as military, political, and economic, but there will be no large-scale war
Whatever the final outcome, Israel's confrontation with Iran will have far-reaching implications for the future of the Middle East
Chapter 4: The Foggy Future – Who Will Be the Winner?
Three strikes, three temptations, the brink of a "nuclear" war between Israel and Iran, full of unknowns and risks, in this game, there are no real winners, only losers
War only brings destruction and suffering, while peace requires tremendous effort and wisdom on both sides
In an uncertain future, we look forward to the voices of reason and restraint triumphing over hatred and prejudice and bringing true peace and stability to the Middle East
Ponder:
How do you think the conflict between Israel and Iran will develop?
How should the international community play its role in avoiding the outbreak of war?
Where is the future of the Middle East headed?
Epilogue:
Peace is particularly precious in the Middle East under the shadow of "nuclear", and let us work together to bring true peace and hope to this war-torn region
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