Loading...
Before reading this article, please click "Follow", which is not only convenient for you to discuss and share, but also can bring you a different sense of participation, thank you for your support.
Text: Entertainment and entertainment
Edit|Entertainment & Entertainment
Lead
The Fed's recent rhetoric about the direction of its future policy is like a bomb, and it is a depth charge, and the huge rooster sound wave not only puts the market in a nervous state, but also makes many people feel that it is as uncomfortable as a cold front.
Why is the Fed's rhetoric the way it is?
On the one hand, the Fed's imperative interest rate cut policy, and on the other hand, the Fed's blind optimism about its economic environment, its own economic situation is not optimistic.
However, after Chairman Powell's hawkish statement, the market generally believes that the Fed will definitely cut interest rates, which can further relieves the market, but why is it raising again?
This also makes many people wonder.
The September non-farm payrolls data not only greatly discounted the market's expectations, but even broke them, so why is that?
The Federal Reserve sounded.
The Fed's September non-farm payrolls data is not only a rebound from the job changes in July and August, but also back to the highest level since June 2015, when the Fed released its first non-farm payrolls data after raising interest rates.
So this means that the highest level since June 2015 means that the United States economy is starting to pick up, and there is no possibility of a rate cut.
The United States bull market has also picked up and will continue for a long time, and the September non-farm payrolls data also reflects that the Fed is not likely to cut interest rates.
As a result, market expectations for a Fed rate cut have also been minimized.
But after the release of the September non-farm payrolls data, Chairman Powell said: "The Fed is not going to change its monetary policy decision.
Therefore, under Chairman Powell's hawkish statement, the market is more nervous about the change in the non-farm payrolls data, which also makes the dollar rise strongly, and the yuan is also affected.
The exchange rate of the renminbi is inversely related to the U.S. dollar, and when the U.S. dollar rises, the renminbi depreciates accordingly.
And because the depreciation of the renminbi will lead to an increase in the cost of imports, and then the price of imported goods in the mainland will rise, which may eventually lead to domestic inflation.
At the same time, due to the depreciation of the renminbi, there will inevitably be funds to withdraw from the renminbi assets, which may run into the dollar assets.
The market is also worried that other funds will continue to withdraw, which will cause turmoil in the foreign exchange market.
However, analysts believe that the Chinese market will become a "safe haven", attracting a lot of capital to choose China.
In addition, there are 17 other countries and regions that can become "safe havens" like China.
Why?
This is analysed from the perspective of the Fed's policy.
The Fed's policies will affect the global economic markets, and it can be said that the Fed's policies are endless, reflecting the influence of United States.
As a superpower of the global economy, the United States has a strong economy, and naturally its currency, the US dollar, is also particularly strong.
And United States' consumer confidence data and retail sales data have risen rapidly recently, which shows that the current United States economy is still relatively good.
But we also need to start from the United States internal economic environment, the current United States economy is facing a large degree of inflation, and at the same time, its consumer spending is also greatly reduced.
So in order to curb inflation, the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates, but as interest rates increased, consumers' purchasing power also weakened, which led to a contraction in consumer spending.
And once consumers make decisions about spending, they will be more cautious.
And it will also have a greater impact on future consumer spending, and when consumers spend less, businesses will spend less.
At the same time, companies will reduce the number of human resources they employ, which will eventually lead to signs of economic recession.
This will undoubtedly lead to a certain recession index, and the Fed's official statement shows a strong expectation of a recession, but this will not affect the Fed's tightening of monetary policy.
Global financial markets were affected.
Every time the Federal Reserve releases its monetary policy, it affects the global financial markets, and this remark is like a depth charge, which shocks the global financial markets.
When the Fed tightens monetary policy, other countries and regions around the world will also tighten monetary policy, after all, the Fed has a greater influence on the global economy.
Therefore, this will lead to a certain amount of turbulence in the global financial market, and at the same time, it will also affect the position of emerging markets, resulting in certain pressure on emerging markets.
So the depth charge of the Federal Reserve is like a big tsunami, the formation of dolphins and submarine volcanoes, and other countries and regions are affected to different degrees.
However, fortunately, the mainland is still relatively optimistic in comparison, so it can be called a "safe haven" to attract foreign capital inflows.
In the face of the strong rise in the US dollar and the pressures and uncertainties brought about by other emerging market countries, the mainland's economic fundamentals are relatively stable, so it can attract foreign capital inflows.
The global economy is facing uncertainty, and only China has remained relatively stable, so a decline is unlikely.
In addition, the mainland economy is large and the market is relatively resilient.
The mainland is bound to maintain a relatively high economic growth rate, which means that it will also attract foreign capital inflows to a certain extent.
Although there are still many hidden dangers in the domestic market, especially real estate, which may have a certain degree of impact on the direction of the economy.
But for now, the Chinese market is a good safe haven, and the domestic economic recovery is still relatively good, and it can attract foreign capital inflows.
There are also different views on the flow of funds in the market, with some people believing that foreign capital will flow into RMB assets, while others will think that foreign capital will flow into US dollar assets.
However, no matter where foreign capital flows into, as long as it is in China, it will make a certain amount of investment and bring certain benefits to the Chinese market.
Investors seize the opportunity.
Just like capital investment, the markets in which Li Ka-shing invests can bring certain benefits, and they are all good places that generate value.
Investors are often the bellwether of the market, even investors in emerging market countries will follow up in time according to the changes in the Chinese market, or China will change according to the changes in the United States market.
Therefore, investors should remain sensitive, make adjustments in a timely manner, and make adjustments in a timely manner in the event of other emergencies to follow up on changes.
New financial instruments such as digital currencies have also emerged in the global financial market, and this financial instrument may become the mainstream of the world in the future.
Moreover, the turmoil in the global market will also make digital currencies more popular in the market and gain higher market recognition.
But investors in digital currencies should also remain calm, after all, unpredictable factors are their biggest hidden danger.
Investors should always pay attention to market changes and policy changes, seize opportunities to invest, and at the same time remain vigilant to prevent risks.
epilogue
Investors' vision and choices often affect the direction of the market, and only by adjusting strategies in time and seizing opportunities can we remain invincible in the market.
At the same time, it is also necessary to be sensitive to market changes, follow market trends in a timely manner, and avoid unexpected situations.
Therefore, in this fast-changing financial market, investors need to be sensitive and seize opportunities, while also remaining vigilant and guarding against risks.
Disclaimer: The above content is from the Internet, and the author of this article does not intend to target or insinuate any real country, political system, organization, race, or individual. The above content does not mean that the author of this article agrees with the laws, rules, opinions, behaviors in the article and is responsible for the authenticity of the relevant information. The author of this article is not responsible for any issues arising from the above or related issues, and does not assume any direct or indirect legal liability.