Japan's discharge of nuclear sewage has made a lot of noise, and finally there is some eyebrows. I heard that China and Japan have reached a four-point consensus, so you can eat Japan seafood with confidence? Don't worry, it's not that simple.
On August 24 last year, Japan began pouring nuclear sewage into the sea, which frightened us. The Chinese government immediately announced an indefinite suspension of the import of aquatic products from Japan, and Japan complained bitterly. It is said that their exports of aquatic products to China were more than 40 percent less than the previous year, and this loss is not small.
The Japan government is anxious like an ant on a hot pot, and has repeatedly negotiated with China to reopen the market. But every time I touch a nose of ash, we just don't let go.
Four-point consensus: a diplomatic game
After a long tug-of-war, China and Japan finally reached a four-point consensus in 2024. Here's how:
First, China's firm opposition to Japan's unauthorized discharge of nuclear sewage remains unchanged. This is quite tough, but if you think about it, isn't Japan already arranged? Doesn't this mean that you don't say it?
Second, China will conduct separate sampling and monitoring of nuclear wastewater. This is a real move, but the question is, how do you take samples? How much to take? How long does it take? These details are not clear.
Third, China will urge the Japanese side to properly handle the issue of sea discharge. This sounds quite official, but how effective can the "urging" be? Could Japan just listen?
Fourth, this consensus does not mean an immediate and full resumption of Japan's imports of aquatic products. This sentence gives the impression that although it is not restored now, it may be restored later?
After listening to these four points, do you think it is still a little vague? Indeed, these statements give a sense of ambiguity, and one cannot help but wonder whether this is a real consensus or a game of diplomatic rhetoric.
Imports of aquatic products: a difficult problem
In the final analysis, the core of this consensus still revolves around the long-standing and difficult problem of aquatic product imports. Japan's exports of aquatic products to China will decrease by 40.9% in 2023 compared to 2022, and this figure is not a joke.
Think about it, those fishermen and aquatic enterprises in Japan must have suffered a lot when they suddenly lost such a large market. They are expected to hope that the Japan government can negotiate with China and reopen the door to the Chinese market.
But the question is, even if the Chinese government does lift the import ban, will we ordinary people dare to buy it? Nuclear sewage is scary to listen to, and who knows if it will go wrong if you eat it? Even if scientists say it's safe, they always feel weird in their hearts.
Haven't we been living well for more than a year? Without Japan seafood, there are no other countries? For example, Russia heard that last year's export of aquatic products to China reached 2.9 billion US dollars, and now 911 Russia enterprises have been allowed to export aquatic products to China.
Safety monitoring: a challenge
In the final analysis, the safety of nuclear sewage discharge into the sea is the most critical. The Chinese side said that it would conduct separate sampling and monitoring, which is indeed a good approach. However, there are too many technical issues to solve.
How is it sampled? Did you go directly to the waters around Fukushima to take water samples? What a battle! Besides, will Japan cooperate? Will they feel that this is a violation of their sovereignty?
How many samples are taken to be considered representative? Once a month? Once a week? Or do you take it every day? These details are not clear.
Even if a sample is taken, what criteria are used to judge whether it is safe or not? International standards? Chinese standards? Or is it Japan standard? These are all issues that need to be negotiated.
If the monitoring results show that there is a problem, how should China respond? Is it a total ban on imports again? Or do you do something else? These are all questions to consider.
International implications: a variable
The consensus reached between China and Japan this time is not just a matter between the two countries. It will have an impact on the entire international community.
What will other countries that oppose Japan's discharge of nuclear sewage think? Will they feel that China has "softened" its position? This could affect the relationship between these countries and China.
Will countries that support Japan, such as the United States, see this as a positive sign? Will they take this opportunity to further advance Japan's position on this issue?
The role of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on this issue is also worth watching. They have previously said Japan's plan to discharge the sea meets international safety standards, but China has been skeptical. Will this consensus change China's attitude towards the IAEA?
Will this consensus be a turning point in the improvement of Sino-Japanese relations? After all, the issue of nuclear sewage has always been a sore point in the relationship between the two countries. If this issue can be properly handled, does it mean that the relations between the two countries are expected to enter a new stage?
My opinion
To be honest, after reading this so-called "four-point consensus", I am still a little apprehensive. Although the government says it will be monitored, who knows if it will be in place? Besides, even if the monitoring results say it's safe, I still feel a little hairy.
However, this consensus is a step forward. At least the two sides are willing to sit down and talk, rather than blindly confront. Perhaps, this is the charm of diplomacy? It is necessary not only to protect its own interests, but also to leave a step for the other party.
This consensus gives the impression that it has neither completely repudiated nor fully accepted Japan's approach. Maybe this is the so-called diplomatic wisdom, right? But as ordinary people, I still hope that the government will be more clear about whether we should eat Japan seafood or not. After all, this is a big deal related to our "rice bags" and "vegetable baskets"!
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