On September 15, a reporter from Beijing Youth Daily saw that Huawei's official website showed that the number of reservations for the HUAWEI Mate XT Extraordinary Master, a three-fold screen mobile phone it had just released, had exceeded 6 million, and it was expected to be available for purchase on the morning of September 20. Since the release of Huawei's triple folding screen phone, the discussion of this new species has not diminished. Many listed companies, especially Huawei's supply chain companies, ushered in a wave of market. However, Huawei did not disclose which suppliers are this time. According to a report by a research institution, it is estimated that China's folding screen mobile phone market will ship about 10.68 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 52.4%, of which Huawei's folding screen mobile phone shipments have been in the first place in the past four years.
Rewriting the history of the industry, Huawei debuted a three-foldable screen mobile phone
Huawei's triple-fold screen phone, the Mate XT, has a single-screen, dual-screen, and triple-screen state, which can be flexibly switched between multiple forms and multiple functions. It has the world's largest 10.2-inch screen and is also the world's thinnest foldable phone, with a thickness of 3.6mm when unfolded. Its inner screen is covered with ultra-thin glass (UTG), a technology that is widely used in most folding flagships. At the same time, the inner screen is also covered with a layer of non-Newtonian fluid to better protect the display. Yu Chengdong said that Huawei's three-fold rewrote the history of the industry, broke the boundaries of the form of intelligent terminals, and turned science fiction into reality.
It is very difficult for a screen to bend inside and out, and it is even more difficult to ensure that it is resistant to extrusion, stretch, and durability. According to Yu Chengdong, Huawei's first Tiangong hinge system subverts the traditional structure, and through a comprehensive breakthrough in core components such as hinges and screens, it achieves both thinness and toughness, precision hinges and super-shaped three-fold large screens, and realizes internal and external bending for the first time.
In fact, since its birth, folding screen mobile phones have made great changes in the form of products, especially in the form of horizontal folding, whether it is from the social attributes or the actual use scenarios of large-screen applications, it is easier to attract the attention and interest of consumers and stimulate the desire to change the phone. However, with the current price drop of folding screen mobile phones and the continuous pursuit of larger screens and portability, the current folding screen mobile phones have been difficult to meet more needs of consumers. Therefore, folding screen phones need a new upgrade. With the official release of Huawei Mate XT, a new form of folding screen, the era of triple folding screen mobile phones has officially arrived, and it is breaking the boundaries of mobile terminals.
Larger displays can further increase the productivity potential of foldable smartphones. When fully unfolded, the smartphone's display is like adding another straight panel screen to its short side, making the display area about a third larger than a traditional large folding phone. However, since the display ratio is more suitable for displaying rectangular media content (e.g., PowerPoint slides, landscape videos, etc.), the readable area is said to be twice as large. This is the use case that Mate XT is particularly focused on by its target customers.
"I think the two most important points are the internal stacking and the largest piece of UTG glass, the former is because it is necessary to control the thickness of the whole machine after the final folding, which is related to whether it will affect daily use, and the quality of this point can be directly related to the completion of this product, whether it is a show of muscles or a real polish. The latter is because it is a combination of outer folding + inner folding, so the reliability of this UTG glass is very important", Yu Zhongguo, founder of CNMO Technology, told a reporter from Beiqing Daily that even if other manufacturers can achieve this technology, the degree of completion is not so high, therefore, at present, only Huawei can achieve mass production of three-fold screen mobile phones.
In terms of function, the tri-fold also has significant advantages over the traditional two-fold. Yu Zhongguo said,"At present, the advantages and applicable scenarios of the folding screen are actually similar to those explored,The first is to show the technical strength of the three-fold,The second is to make the size of the fully expanded form really effective,For example, if you watch movies or dramas after the traditional big fold is actually opened,The increase in screen size is not large,But the proportion after the three-fold is opened makes it look like a real tablet。 ”
In terms of price, the starting price of Huawei Mate XT Extraordinary Master is 19999 yuan, and the price of the highest configuration is 23999 yuan, which has also become the "ceiling" of domestic mobile phones. "The cost of this mobile phone is very high, and I hope that through the improvement of the process, the yield can be improved and the cost will be reduced," Yu Chengdong said on the spot.
Counterpoint Research believes that the emergence of the Mate XT is a litmus test for two important issues in the smartphone industry. The first is the average selling price (ASP) in the Chinese market, one of the world's largest markets for high-end smartphones. If the product can achieve significant sales, it shows that as long as the mobile phone device has a truly breakthrough innovation, China's smartphone ASP still has a lot of upside potential. The second is the growth momentum of foldable smartphones, which need to be reinvigorated by new designs.
A number of listed companies responded to whether they would participate in Huawei's three-fold screen supply chain
In terms of A-shares, with the release of Huawei's mobile phone, Huawei's concept stocks continued to be active, after Huaying Technology received 4 consecutive daily limits, Shenzhen Huaqiang, Huilun Crystal, Liyuan Information, Tianyi Shares, Century Dingli, Shengjian Technology, Haoshanghao and other dozens of stocks also received daily limits after their press conferences were finalized.
On the investor interactive platform, investors are also very concerned about whether there is a cooperative relationship between the listed companies and the three-fold screen released by Huawei. For example, an investor asked, "Does the gold hardware folding mobile phone business have Huawei?" Hongli Zhihui replied: "Jincai Technology has Huawei's folding screen structural parts business. Green Precision responded: "The precision structural parts produced by the company are not currently involved in the mobile phone product." ”
With the production of folding screen mobile phones, it will also drive the growth of related industrial chain business. Genesis said: "The company's fist product, the drilling and tapping machine, can be used for the processing of metal structural parts such as the middle frame and hinge of the three-fold screen mobile phone. The middle frame of the three-fold screen mobile phone is thinner and longer, the processing complexity increases, and the processing time becomes longer; At the same time, compared with the double folding screen, the hinge of the three-folding screen will change from one to two, and the number of hinges will also increase, which will increase the processing volume of the drilling and tapping machine; It is believed that with the listing and volume of three-fold screen mobile phones, the demand for the company's drilling and tapping machines will further increase. ”
In fact, Huawei has not disclosed the specific supply chain behind it. However, when someone disassembled Huawei's Mate 60 series mobile phones, it was found that its localization rate has exceeded 90%, except for a very small number of components from Korea and Japan, most of the components of the Mate 60 series have been localized. However, the news has not been confirmed by Huawei.
Liande Equipment bluntly said: "The company has provided an overall solution for laminating process equipment in the three-fold screen supply chain, and has formed sales orders. As a leading enterprise in the market segment related to folding screen lamination equipment, the company continues to give full play to its leading technological advantages and contribute to 'Made in China'."
"Huawei is quite high in the localization of parts, some are not easy to say, but some of the core, even including camera sensors, these are the use of domestic suppliers", Yu Zhongguo emphasized: "But it must be recognized that the localization rate has not yet reached 100%, which is actually a direction for our own brands to strive for in the future." ”
This year, the shipment of large folding screen mobile phones is the first ultra-small folding screen
At present, domestic mobile phone manufacturers are seizing the high-end market, and folding screen is the most important category in the high-end and ultra-high-end market. iResearch data shows that the current user replacement folding screen mobile phone brand shows a trend of moving closer to the head brand, and nearly half of the high-end users with a future purchase budget of more than 10,000 yuan choose Huawei as the intention to change the brand. Existing users have a high intention to continue to use the folding screen mobile phone category, and more than ninety percent say that the next mobile phone is still willing to use the folding machine category.
Previously, many companies have launched folding screen mobile phones. In the folding screen market, the top 5 models in the domestic market are from Huawei, OPPO and Honor. Among them, Huawei Mate X5, Huawei Mate X3, and Huawei Pocket S won the top 3 domestic sales in 2023, and OPPO Find N2 Flip and Honor Magic V2 also entered the top five. In addition, the Huawei Mate X5 is also the only single product that has achieved more than one million shipments. According to data, Huawei occupies half of the folding screen mobile phone market, accounting for 42% of the market share. In the ultra-high-end market of more than 10,000 yuan, Huawei's share is as high as 67%.
Folding screens are developing in the direction of "big". At present, there are two forms of folding screens: small folding and large folding. According to Counterpoint Research, 55% of the current shipments of folding screen phones are large folding screen phones. Previously, the market for small foldable models was mainly led by Samsung, as the brand has a more acceptable price (except for the Chinese market). However, as Chinese manufacturers such as Huawei, Honor, OnePlus and Vivo continued to launch new foldable phones since the second half of last year, Samsung's large foldable segment slowed down, leading to a reversal of popular models in the quarter. It is worth noting that the report shows that Huawei has also set very aggressive targets for the large folding model market, and plans to add a lower-priced model to its product portfolio. Honor and Xiaomi are also preparing to enter the large folding model market for the first time, which will further intensify the market competition.
Analysis: Behind it represents the strong new quality productivity of China's supply chain
"So far, Huawei's entire supply chain has been dominated by Chinese enterprises, which represents the strong new quality productivity of China's supply chain." Xiang Ligang, chairman of the Zhongguancun Information Consumption Alliance, told a reporter from Beiqing Daily that Huawei generally seeks to supply from multiple manufacturers, and it is impossible for one manufacturer to supply, which requires more Chinese supply chains to participate in it, and domestic enterprises have occupied an increasingly important position in Huawei's entire industrial chain and supply chain.
"For example, how to make a mobile phone with a triple folding screen thinner and lighter? The first is the technology of stacking electronic components, that is, to stack all kinds of electronic components in such a mobile phone, and then not let it become very thick, this is very difficult, so far, its full deployment is only 3.6 mm, which is a height in the stacking technology. Xiang Ligang said that in addition to stacking technology, it also requires a variety of components to be reasonably configured, such as the need for more antennas and so on. In this way, it requires more components that are smaller, more sensitive, and more capable, which also places high demands on the components.
Taking the battery as an example, three batteries are placed in Huawei's three-fold screen mobile phone, each with only 1.9 mm, "We all think it is unimaginable and impossible to achieve." So thin, it can also have a large capacity, each battery is about 2000 mAh, and the total battery capacity is close to 6000 mAh, which also puts forward high requirements for battery technology. Xiang Ligang said.
"The main difficulty of the three-fold screen mobile phone is the hinge, screen, battery and other technologies, the hinge should support internal and external folding, but also to ensure the stability and non-shaking after full expansion, the screen should maintain the flatness after complex bending, and there is the three-fold application display and interactive equipment work", Liu Huafang, the founder of Mr. Science and Technology, told a reporter from Beiqing Daily, "The domestic supply chain and domestic mobile phone manufacturers are deeply bound, the research and development and application of cutting-edge technology are relatively fast, and the technology iteration speed is faster." Huawei's flagship, including the Chinese elements of the triple-fold phone, is more than 90%, which can basically be replaced by a nationally produced supply chain. ”
In fact, folding screen mobile phones are not Huawei's monopoly, and other mobile phone manufacturers in China such as vivo, honor, and Xiaomi are all laying out folding screen mobile phones, which also brings a benign stimulus to the supply chain. According to the IDC report, the active investment and layout of Chinese manufacturers in folding screen mobile phones has made China the world's largest folding screen mobile phone market. IDC predicts that China's folding screen mobile phone market will occupy about 40% of the global market share for a long time in the future. With the improvement of hinges, screens and other related technologies, the yield rate has been improved, and the price of folding screen mobile phones has continued to fall. The user experience such as the quality, thinness, screen creases, standby time and image will continue to improve, and consumer acceptance will also be higher.
"The folding screen market has formed a scale, and it is relatively successful in the high-end market, and it will accelerate its popularity in the future, and its market share will be higher and higher. The cost of three-fold mobile phones is too high, and other mobile phone manufacturers may not necessarily follow up, but dual-folding mobile phones have formed an unstoppable trend. Liu Huafang analyzed.
So, will the number of folds become more and more in the future? "We've seen that there are computers that can be folded, tablets that can be folded, and then there will be some new technologies that will be used in mobile phones. But in the direction of its main body, I personally think that the three-fold is unlikely to be broken through for a long time, such as the four-fold and so on, it is unlikely", Xiang Ligang believes.
"Huawei is accelerating the application adaptation of pure-blooded Hongmeng, and there is no problem in competing in China. Huawei's chip problem has also been solved, and it is in the stage of accelerating to regain market share, and the reconstruction and recovery of overseas markets is the real challenge and difficulty for Huawei," Liu Huafang said.
IDC believes that the development of the folding screen mobile phone market will be further promoted in terms of hardware, software ecology, and usage scenarios. Hardware level: continuous innovation in hinge and screen technology is the key to achieving triple folding; Software level: Break through the challenge of applying more screen streams; Usage scenarios: Break the scene boundaries of mobile terminals, and flexibly transform large and small screens to meet the needs of various scenarios such as life and work. In the future, under the active promotion of leading manufacturers and the upstream supply chain of the industry, the three-fold screen mobile phone will create a greater development space for the folding screen industry in the future.
【Copyright Notice】The copyright of this article (including the right of information network dissemination) belongs to Beijing Youth Daily, and may not be reproduced without authorization
Text/Beijing Youth Daily reporter Wen Jing
Editor/Fan Hongwei