1. This week's public opinion focuses on key topics
1. The "sodium incident" of wolfberry was exposed again, and the safety of Chinese herbal medicines became a major hidden danger;
2. The Bozhou Pharmaceutical Fair will be held in 2024 and become the vane of market operation in the second half of the year;
3. The performance bulletin of listed Chinese medicine companies disclosed that the overall decline may affect the market trend of Chinese herbal medicines;
4. Whether the continuous fermentation of traditional Chinese medicine tea will affect the consumption of related medicinal materials;
5. The super typhoon is coming, adding themes and gimmicks to some varieties;
Second, this week's market keywords
This week's market, from the perspective of the market, there are not many commendable varieties, there are still few hot spots, and the market as a whole is also tepid. The market as a whole is still falling more and rising less, with large declines and small gains, mostly small rebounds, mostly downward trend reversals, and the market continues to diverge.
1. The general decline of production and newness. In the current market, the new industry fell before the opening, the new industry fell later, and the general decline of the new industry has become the mainstream mode of market fluctuations, which also indicates the change of market trends and wind directions
2. The second continued decline. The decline in the price of new production indicates an increase in production, and the price continues to decline as the supply of goods is listed one after another.
3. Weak rebound. The current price increase has not strongly enhanced market sentiment, and most of the merchants are mainly wait-and-see, and the market is mainly based on a slight rebound, and the overall heat is not high.
4. Be cautious and wait and see. After experiencing the sharp rise and fall of the market and the test of the roller coaster market, most businesses have declined in their willingness to invest, and they mostly have a cautious wait-and-see attitude.
5. Wait for clarity. The current merchants are waiting for the new and bright production and the demand for the quiet.
3. This week's hot varieties and market rise and fall list
3.1 This week, the market and origin focus on the analysis of varieties
Atractylodes, jujube kernel, white peony, danpi, cork, schisandra chinensis, etc.
3.2 Analysis of rising symbols
Table 1: Hot varieties of market price increases this week (unit: yuan/kg)
This week's price-increasing varieties of seasonings dominate, accounting for as much as 60%, but it should be noted that although there are many varieties of seasonings that have risen in price, the overall increase is not large, all of which are below 5%, indicating that the market is not hot. Other varieties of jujube kernels and lilies belong to the theme of sharp price decline in the early stage and strong rebound in the near future; Millennium Jian belongs to the wild theme; Cassia belongs to the long-term low-cost theme.
Sour jujube kernel: The historical sky-high price of 1,000 yuan has just passed, setting a new benchmark for its subsequent market development. In the early part of this year, there was no good theme to boost, coupled with high prices to suppress demand, resulting in a steady decline in the market. It's just that the rain in the later period has affected the output and led to a strong rebound in the recent market. The high price for several years, the development of family production, the potential of resources has been large, and the current price is less concerned by peripheral businessmen.
Lily: This round of the market belongs to the rebound market, this year's overall output increased, but due to the weak inventory, resulting in market shocks and difficult to stabilize, this price belongs to the historical high price, and will stimulate the development of production next year.
Pepper has added a typhoon theme, and the follow-up attention to the theme is promoted. The production of grass and fruits is new, and the price of fresh goods is high, which drives the rebound of market prices; The import of white cardamom, cumin, cassia and male cloves dominates, and the recent volume of goods is not large, coupled with the linkage of the seasoning plate, the market also fluctuates.
3.3 Analysis of falling symbols
Table 1: Hot varieties of price reductions in the market this week (unit: yuan/kg)
From the perspective of the subject matter, the price decline varieties this week are mainly new and new, with 10 varieties, accounting for 67%; The second is that the production of new products is large, the supply exceeds demand, and the market has a second pullback, with 3 varieties; Finally, the demand is insufficient, the supply of goods moves slowly, and the market is sluggish and downward. However, judging from the decline in the market this week, only 3 varieties fell by more than 10%, and 12 varieties fell below 10%, and the overall decline is slowing down and decreasing, which also shows that with the advent of the peak season, the mentality of market holders has gradually stabilized.
Beisha ginseng: high prices for several consecutive years, stimulating the expansion of production, now entering the new production, the market decline is inevitable, but the inventory of this product is not large, this spring seeds to create a historical sky-high price, investment costs have increased significantly, will also support the bottom of the market upward, the market outlook is concerned about the rebound opportunities.
Banxia: Gansu has produced new, Hebei is not far away, facing bumper yields, large volumes, inventory backlogs and other bearish suppression, the market continues to fall, prices fall again, has moved closer to the bottom. At present, the overall situation of growth is gradually determined, and merchants are waiting for the opening price to be further clarified, but the price is not high, and the merchants are paying great attention to it, and it is estimated that the new market will also fluctuate.
Xin Yi: This round has also created a historical sky-high price, the current high price, stimulating the production of new products in advance, the amount is not large, the market outlook is waiting for the new goods to be listed on the market changes, and the current franchisees are more wait-and-see.
Angelica dahurica is large, the price is sluggish, the market has not rebounded significantly, pay attention to the planting situation next year. Star anise resources have great potential, and there is no obvious positive promotion this year, and the price of new production is also declining steadily. The high price of aconite stimulated, production increased, and the new price of production was reversed. The price of Poria cocos has been good for several years, the production has kept up, and the price of new production has withered. The small variety of Chinensis is not large, and the high price in the past few years stimulates the increase in production. The new price of woody incense is slipping; The high price of cimicifuga stimulated, the supply is large, the market supply is not selling fast, and the market price continues to slide. Bone fragments rose strongly in the early stage, and now it has entered a pullback period, and the later stage is waiting for the market to be further clarified, and the popularity foundation is still there. There is no supply gap for psyllium. The turtle carapace is not selling well. Atractylodes atractylodes is waiting for the follow-up to produce new and bright.
Fourth, the market trend next week
1. Focus on new varieties. At present, the autumn production continues to deepen, the number of new varieties will increase one after another, and the new production situation will become increasingly clear, which will become the most important price fluctuation sector in the market.
2. Pay attention to actual demand data. Actual sales have become the main factor in the development of the market in the future, and the quality of demand will directly affect the business holding and business mentality, which will bring about fluctuations in the market.
3. The trend of falling more and rising less will continue. At present, the market trend has changed, merchants are more cautious, and the external driving factors have been small.
4. The price rise is dominated by a weak rebound. Without the impetus of sentiment, the market will not have enough upward momentum.
5. The autumn nourishing season is approaching, and whether the market and businesses can generally pull the market back.
For more detailed interpretation, please contact the background and refer to the "2023 Blue Book on the Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry" and the "Industrial Big Data and Trend Analysis in the Next Three Years" series of reports launched by Zhongkang Yunling Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry Data System (click on the picture below to get the full text of the catalog)!
(Unless otherwise noted in the article, the data are from Zhongkang Yunling)