The Bozhou Pharmaceutical Fair will be held in 2024, which will become a major event of market attention in the second half of the year. Especially in the big bull market in recent years, Bozhou real estate varieties continue to lead the price increase, "three white and one black" (white peony, atractylodes, angelica and peony skin) because of the large amount, the rise is fierce, but also become a star variety. For example, in January last year, the market price of Atractylodes atractylodes in Anhui Province was 27 yuan, and the current price is 160 yuan, an increase of more than 4.92 times, peony skin has risen from 36 yuan to 105 yuan, an increase of more than 1.9 times, and white peony has risen from 19 yuan to 70 yuan, an increase of more than 2.68 times.
Entering 2024, the market of Angelica dahurica in the "three white and one black" has begun to decline significantly, what about the future market of other varieties?
In this issue, the Zhongkang Yunling Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry Data System analyzes the market trend of peony peel in Bozhou real estate varieties from the perspective of raw materials involved in Liuwei Dihuang Pill.
1. There are many manufacturers of Liuwei Dihuang pills
There are 145 manufacturers of Liuwei Dihuang Pill on sale, TOP3 Jiuzhitang Co., Ltd., Zhongjing Wanxi Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., and Beijing Tongrentang Science and Technology Development Co., Ltd. Pharmaceutical Factory; In 2023, the retail sales will be 2.003 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%; The sales of the hospital side were 109 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.6%.
From the perspective of market structure, the current market of Liuwei Dihuang in mainland China is generally scattered, with only three time-honored brands in Tongrentang, Wanxi Pharmaceutical and Jiuzhitang accounting for more than 10% of the market.
2. Liuwei Dihuang Pill is the main consumption channel of Chinese patent medicine for peony peel
Table 1: Core raw materials of Liuwei Dihuang Pill
Liuwei Dihuang Pill, the name of Chinese patent medicine. It is a tonic, with the effect of nourishing yin and nourishing the kidney. It is used for kidney yin loss, dizziness and tinnitus, waist and knee soreness, bone steaming hot flashes, night sweats and spermatozoa, and thirst.
(Note: For more analysis of the consumption and competition pattern of proprietary Chinese medicine raw materials, please log on to the official website of Zhongkang Yunling https://yl.sinohealth.com/homepage view)
3. The rise and fall of the core raw materials of Liuwei Dihuang Pill
Table 2: Table of the rise and fall of raw materials of Liuwei Dihuang pills
During the period from January 2023 to September 2024, the core raw materials of Liuwei Dihuang Pill will rise by 2 varieties, accounting for 33.3%; There were 4 varieties that fell, accounting for 66.7%.
3.1. The price of peony skin has risen too quickly, which has released the follow-up room in advance
Figure 3: Price trend of peony peel market from 2004 to 2024 (unit: yuan/kg)
Peony skin due to the long growth cycle, high prices and trough in the later period of the experience of a long time, the history has experienced three high and low price cycles, each cycle lasts more than 10 years, this cycle from 2014 around 15 yuan to start.
In 2018-2019, the peony skin market gradually declined to a trough close to ten years, and the lowest time fell to 12-13 yuan (scraping peony skin), when the price reached a bad market, and it was difficult to reach a balance between income and expenditure.
Low-priced merchants began to buy actively, the market began to rebound, and the situation of only digging but not planting in various producing areas led to a price rise to 39 yuan in 2022, and then the market continued to rise, reaching 105 yuan in August 2024. However, the price rose too quickly, which also released the subsequent upside in advance.
3.2. The area that can be dug for peony skin is reduced, and it takes time for planting to recover
During the period from 2015 to 2022, the planting area decreased sharply, and the 6-7 years have basically been in a state of only digging without planting, after 2020, the output of Bozhou production areas gradually decreased, and the proportion of Bozhou goods in 2022-2023 has decreased sharply. Judging from the current land area, merchants, operators and processors in market towns have reported that the area that can be mined in 2024 is estimated to be at least half compared with last year, and the output in the future will be decreasing year by year.
Fourth, comprehensive evaluation
1. The procurement cost pressure of peony peel and other varieties is relatively high The raw material pressure test shows that the current raw materials of Liuwei Dihuang Pill mainly come from peony peel in terms of supply pressure; From the perspective of quality pressure, it mainly comes from peony bark and dogwood.
2. The high level is bound to stimulate the planting area of peony peel In 2024, the new point plot of peony peel has reached 50,000 yuan per mu, and the annual income per mu is more than 10,000 yuan. In the future, the production of peony peel will be centered on the place of origin and quickly spread to the surrounding areas, and production overheating may occur again.
3. The peony skin market will still fluctuate at a high level On the one hand, the early hoarding merchants will inevitably have to take arbitrage out of the warehouse one after another; On the other hand, the rapid rise in prices has also suppressed demand, and the market of peony skin is expected to become a strong crossbow. However, due to the production cycle of this variety as long as 4-5 years, it is expected that the market of this variety will continue to fluctuate at a high level in the next 2 years.
For more detailed interpretation, please contact the background and refer to the "2023 Blue Book on the Development of Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry" and the "Industrial Big Data and Trend Analysis in the Next Three Years" series of reports launched by Zhongkang Yunling Traditional Chinese Medicine Industry Data System (click on the picture below to get the full text of the catalog)!
(Unless otherwise noted in the article, the data are from Zhongkang Yunling)