How to usher in the era of humanoid robots?

With the development and maturity of artificial intelligence, robotics and other technologies, the intelligent level of humanoid robots has been continuously improved, and the application scenarios have been continuously expanded. Under the combined effect of these positive factors, the humanoid robot industry is expected to usher in rapid development. It is estimated that the market size related to Chinese human robots will be about 2.76 billion yuan in 2024, 75 billion yuan by 2029, and further 300 billion yuan by 2035.

The potential and opportunities for the development of humanoid robots

The rapid development of humanoid robots will play a lot of positive roles in economic and social development.

First, humanoid robots can effectively help or replace humans in many tasks. Humanoid robots have similar appearance and functions to humans, and can perform many human-like tasks, they can not only liberate humans from heavy and high-risk work, so that the level of productivity and work efficiency can be greatly improved, but also have broad application prospects in industry, commerce, home, outer space exploration and other fields. Especially in the face of situations such as declining birth rate and aging population, humanoid robots can effectively hedge against the resulting labor shortage, rising labor costs and other problems, and provide strong support for the sustainable development of the economy.

Second, the development of humanoid robots will play an effective role in promoting the innovation and development of related industries. The development of humanoid robots requires the cooperation of many science and technology, so its development will have a huge impetus for the development of these technologies from the perspective of demand. For example, the development of embodied intelligence, the ability of agents to interact with their environment, is currently one of the major issues in the field of artificial intelligence. Due to the large R&D investment, but the economic benefits are relatively small, there has been a lack of R&D momentum in this field for a long time. With the development of humanoid robots, the application potential of embodied intelligence will become very broad, and its research and development momentum will become more sufficient.

Third, humanoid robots have a positive effect on the quality of social services and the improvement of people's living standards. The application of humanoid robots in the fields of medical care, housekeeping, and education will significantly improve the quality and efficiency of social services. For example, in the medical field, humanoid robots can assist doctors in performing surgeries and caring for patients. Especially in an aging society, humanoid robots can provide uninterrupted care services for the elderly, effectively improving the coverage and quality of medical services. In the field of domestic services, humanoid robots can take on tasks such as cleaning, cooking, and caring for children and the elderly, effectively improving the quality of life in families and giving people more time to enjoy their leisure life.

Fourth, the social security and emergency response capabilities of humanoid robots have been effectively improved. For example, in the field of security surveillance, humanoid robots can patrol and monitor public places, identify and prevent potential security threats in real time, and improve the level of social security. At the scene of natural disasters and accidents, humanoid robots can enter dangerous areas for search and rescue and assistance, reducing the risk of human rescuers and improving rescue efficiency.

Difficulties and risks in the development of humanoid robots

At this stage in China, the development of the humanoid robot industry has many innate advantages: technically, the development of humanoid robots is highly dependent on robots, artificial intelligence and other technologies, and the mainland has a deep accumulation in these fields. The mainland is the world's largest industrial robot application country, the installed capacity of industrial robots exceeds 50% of the world, and there are a lot of technology and experience reserves in the research and development, manufacturing and application of robots. In the field of artificial intelligence, China's technological strength is at the world's leading level. These technical conditions are enough to provide strong support for the development of humanoid robots in the mainland. In terms of supply, the mainland's manufacturing industry has a complete range of industries and a complete industrial system, which makes China have a strong potential in the manufacture of humanoid robots. In terms of demand, the large-scale, multi-level and multi-demand market in mainland China provides a broad deployment environment and testing space for the application of humanoid robots, and is expected to generate huge market demand. All these factors will contribute to the rapid development of the humanoid robot industry in the mainland.

But at the same time, we must also see that at this stage, there are still certain difficulties in the development of humanoid robots.

First, there is still a high technical threshold for the R&D and manufacturing of humanoid robots. Although China has made a lot of progress in artificial intelligence and robotics, humanoid robots are still technically difficult. Humanoid robots need to solve problems such as complex mechanical structure design, high-precision motion control, multi-sensor data fusion, and autonomous decision-making in complex environments, which require long-term accumulation and breakthroughs, and are difficult to solve in the short term. As for the high-performance chips required for humanoid robots, the mainland is still facing a serious "stuck neck" problem. Only by properly solving these technical problems can the mainland's humanoid robot industry truly achieve smooth development.

Second, the development and manufacturing of humanoid robots are still expensive. Under the existing technical conditions, the development of humanoid robots is still a high-cost work. Especially in core components such as high-precision servo motors, reducers, etc., a large amount of investment is still required. Although China's manufacturing industry has economies of scale, there is still a gap between it and the international leading level in terms of high-end technology and precision manufacturing, which makes the cost of humanoid robots remain high in the short term. High R&D investment and production costs will limit the large-scale commercial application of humanoid robots.

Third, the commercialization of humanoid robots still needs to be explored. Although humanoid robots have great demand potential in theory, their specific commercialization form and path have not yet been verified. At present, there are no humanoid robots that have been successfully commercialized on a large scale. Although some companies have carried out application trials in specific scenarios, most of the humanoid robots are still in the display and testing stage, and have not yet formed large-scale market applications. The lack of commercial application may make it difficult for humanoid robots to gain wide recognition and support from the market, which in turn affects their industrialization process.

In addition to the above issues, we must also recognize that the development of humanoid robots may raise many social and ethical issues. For example, the widespread application of humanoid robots may trigger varying degrees of "technical unemployment" in the short term; Accidents caused by humanoid robots in the application may pose new challenges to accident attribution and compensation. The large-scale entry of humanoid robots into homes will also raise widespread concerns about privacy and personal data breaches. If these problems are not properly addressed, then the development of the humanoid robot industry will be seriously dragged down. If some of these problems intensify, they may also lead to serious social contradictions and conflicts.

Policy discussion to support the development of humanoid robots

In order to promote the sustainable and healthy development of the humanoid robot industry, give full play to its positive role in the social economy, and reduce its negative impact, it is necessary to formulate and implement a series of targeted policies.

First, it is necessary to further strengthen relevant basic research and technological innovation. First of all, the government has increased financial support for basic research on humanoid robots, especially in core technologies such as artificial intelligence, sensor technology, and new materials. Second, the government has set up a special fund to support joint research projects of universities, research institutes and enterprises to promote technological breakthroughs. Finally, science and technology parks and innovation incubators are encouraged to provide R&D and testing environments for robotics companies. In addition, actively promote cooperation between enterprises, universities and scientific research institutions, establish a collaborative innovation mechanism for industry, academia, research and application, and accelerate the transformation and application of technological achievements. Through government guidance funds, we will support the transformation of scientific research results into the market and shorten the path from the laboratory to the market.

Second, actively improve the construction of relevant industrial and supply chains. First of all, the government actively supports the research and development of key components. For key components such as high-precision servo motors, reducers, and high-performance sensors, special R&D funds and preferential tax policies are provided to encourage enterprises to break through technical bottlenecks and realize independent production of core components. Second, the government helps build a supply chain system. It is necessary to devote ourselves to establishing and improving the humanoid robot industry chain, supporting the cooperation between upstream core component suppliers and downstream machine manufacturers, and promoting the formation of a complete supply chain system from raw materials, core components to complete machine production, and improving the stability and autonomy of the industrial chain. Finally, the government promotes the construction of standardization. Develop and promote technical standards related to humanoid robots to ensure product compatibility and interoperability. Through standardization, standardize the market order and promote the healthy development of the industry.

Third, vigorously improve and promote market application and commercialization. On the one hand, we can consider selecting typical industries and application scenarios to carry out application demonstration projects of humanoid robots, and promote the application of humanoid robots in practical scenarios through government procurement and demonstration projects. On the other hand, strengthen the marketing and user education of humanoid robots, and improve the public's awareness and acceptance of humanoid robots. Promote the advantages and application scenarios of humanoid robots through multiple channels to attract potential users. For example, humanoid robot exhibitions and expos can be held to showcase the latest technologies and products, increasing the public's access to and understanding humanoid robots. At the same time, science education activities can also be carried out to promote the knowledge and application of humanoid robots in schools and communities, cultivate public interest and trust, and tap potential needs.

Fourth, improve the construction of relevant laws, regulations and ethical norms. First of all, a sound legal and regulatory framework is formulated for the legal issues that may be involved in the R&D, production and use of humanoid robots. In particular, laws and regulations related to data privacy, intellectual property rights, product safety, and responsibility attribution will be prioritized. Only in this way can the development of humanoid robots be based on the law. Secondly, a special ethical research institute should be established to conduct in-depth research on various ethical issues related to humanoid robots, and on this basis, corresponding ethical guidelines and behavioral norms should be formulated to ensure the safety and controllability of humanoid robot technology. Finally, a special regulatory agency will be set up to supervise and manage the humanoid robot industry. Develop access standards, quality testing and certification mechanisms to ensure that humanoid robot products sold and used in the market meet safety and quality requirements.