Hu Maoren: Will there be an economic crisis in China if foreign investment is banned?

Not long ago, the same video appeared on multiple platforms on the Internet. There is a white middle-aged woman in the video, who says she is the former ambassador of the United States to NATO, and there are also videos that say that it is not an ambassador, but a representative. If it is a representative, it should be more reliable. But the middle-aged woman is not named, so it's a bit confusing here. I didn't really understand what this man was doing. She was just put on the hat of a former United States ambassador (or representative) to NATO, and it was difficult to distinguish the real from the fake.

The middle-aged woman spoke very bluntly. If there is a word "straight man" in the language of China now, then this white middle-aged woman can be called a "straight woman". In the video, she said that China is developing very quickly now, with a lot of weapons, missiles, nuclear weapons. If we want to defeat China in competition, we need to mess up their economy and create an economic crisis within them. This requires that the world's leading companies refrain from investing in China. In this way, China will not be able to develop.

Of course, if this kind of blockade of China can really be realized, China will definitely face huge economic difficulties. But to say that China may be doomed because there is no investment from large foreign companies is not very reliable. It always reminds me of the fifties and sixties of the last century. Since the founding of New China, the United States has been blockading China. In the fifties, the Soviet Union used to aid China, but in the sixties, the Soviet Union stopped aiding China, and also came to participate in the blockade of China. China at that time was indeed very difficult. However, relying on the spirit of self-reliance and hard work, it took only three years for China to emerge from a period of economic difficulties. Although the speed of China's development has not been so fast since then, the pace of China's development has never stopped.

The middle-aged white woman in the video says that to cause an internal economic crisis in China, it is mainly dependent on the world's strongest companies to stop investing in China. By internal crisis, she used the word internal crisis. In the middle-aged woman's view, if this can be done, China's economy will surely collapse. Here are a few questions: First, will China's economy be in crisis if the world's strongest companies don't invest in China? In fact, whether or how much these large enterprises invest in China has a limited impact on China's economy. Even among the world's top 500 companies, their investment in China is still very limited, and it is unlikely to fundamentally affect the basic situation of China's economy. China has many of its own enterprises, both state-owned and private. The strength of these enterprises should not be underestimated in today's world. At least although the so-called top 500 foreign companies attach great importance to the Chinese market, none of them dare to bet all or most of their net worth on China's side. So, even if these big companies stop investing in China, the impact on China's economy will not be as great as the middle-aged woman imagined.

Second, who will order the ban on these Fortune 500 companies from investing in China? Is it the United States government? Is it a European government? It is estimated that European governments generally do not give such instructions to such top 500 multinational companies. They don't have that authority, they can't do it. If it were the United States government, they would have the courage to issue such an order, and the United States are bold, and whether it can work or not will not be taken care of first, and they must first say it out to be serious. However, in the current state of United States, why do these multinational companies obey the orders he gives to United States? It's not scientific. Is there anything in the hands of the United States for the multinational groups? There may be a few companies that do have more serious handles for the United States to grasp, but if the United States does have such a handle in its hands, just like the United States did with France's Alstom, wouldn't it be over if it was killed directly? Why do you have to go to such trouble and issue some orders prohibiting investment in China? This is a bit redundant and completely unnecessary. At least, for most multinationals, they don't have any solid handle in their hands, as the United States did with Alstom. Without a hard handle, what can you do United States take these companies?

Third, if these large companies ordered by the United States do not obey, will the United States take the form of sanctions? This possibility cannot be ruled out, but it is not very likely. United States sanctions this and that every day, but how much effect it can really achieve has always been questionable. United States is actually somewhat jealous of multinational companies. Since they are multinationals, these companies have a lot of connections with many companies in the United States. The relationship between them has even reached the point of both loss and prosperity. Under such circumstances, how can United States pick up the stick of sanctions? You hit the multinational corporations, and inevitably the United States companies that are involved with the multinational corporations. When such a situation occurs, won't the United States turn upside down?

Fourth, foreign companies invest in China for the purpose of making money. If you don't let foreign companies invest, where can they go to make money? Isn't this smashing the jobs of foreign companies? With this trick, can foreign companies not be anxious with United States? Why should foreign companies listen to United States dictations? This middle-aged white woman came out with a purely motherly idea, which was completely unrealistic.

What tricks will the United States use to cause an internal economic crisis in China? Generally speaking, this is the so-called economic sanctions. It's just that after the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the United States and Europe launched round after round of sanctions against Russia, but Russia's economy has been growing. Although the growth rate is not high, it is still positive. But for the European partners in the United States who participated in the sanctions, it was already close to a disaster. Recently, a Chinese living in Sweden said in a video he posted that Northern Europe used to be a place that many people yearn for, where life is rich and the environment is peaceful. Now it's completely different. The influx of refugees has made life very unstable for the people there. Sanctions against Russia have instead led to a deep recession in their economy. He said that in the supermarket over there, meat was bought casually. Not anymore. A lock is attached to the outside of the cabinet where the meat is placed. If you want to buy meat, ask the clerk to come and open the lock first. Otherwise, there will be people who will take the meat away every day, just like the zero-dollar purchase in the United States. Some retired elderly people said that now they dare not eat anything, only meat sausages that are about to expire. Because the rest of the food is just too expensive. Some of us once boasted that NATO was so exaggerated that it was a paradise on earth. It's already plummeting now. Just ask, in the face of such a result of sanctions against Russia, will Western companies still participate in sanctions against China? If any other country wants to sanction China like Russia, don't they themselves want to live?

Sanctions are useless. What the United States still wants to use is the blockade. On the world's ocean lanes, the United States has added one blockade after another. In the Strait of Malacca, for example, both Chinese oil imports and Chinese commodity exports have to be blocked. The question is, does United States have enough military power to do this job? If China sends naval ships to participate in the escort of Chinese merchant ships, will the United States dare to take action when it sees this formation? I forgive him for not daring. If United States draws too much military power from this position, then United States' military power in other parts of the world is bound to be greatly weakened. If United States cannot use much military force, then the United States blockade will not work at all.

That white middle-aged woman is really talking. It's not an exaggeration to say she's a "straight daughter". When she said these words, she was just happy and happy, and she probably didn't even think about the actual operability. Some Americans today, including some high-ranking United States military personnel in the United States, often say this kind of verbal pleasure. They thought that if they said such cruel things against China, China would be afraid and would honestly listen to United States's arrangement. Let these people stay in such a high position, their IQ may still help China.

(The author is a senior researcher at Kunlun Ce Research Institute; Source: Kunlun Ce Network [Author's Authorization], revised and released; The picture comes from the Internet, invaded and deleted)