Iran or drone missile attack on Israel, April operation again?

Reporter | Anjing

Editor|Liu Haichuan

Tensions in the Middle East have escalated again with the killing of Ismail · Haniyeh, leader of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) Politburo, in the Iran capital, Tehran, and the Israel killing of veteran Lebanon Allah military commander Fouad · Shukur.

Iran officials revealed that Iran will meet with allies in Lebanon, Yemen and Iraq to discuss retaliatory actions against Israel. There is also information that the Iran military is considering launching a drone attack on Israel mainland.

The last time the standoff between Iran and Israel escalated was in April 2024, when seven people were killed in an Israel airstrike on the consular office building of the Iran embassy in Syria. Iran and Israel then took turns attacking each other's homeland.

At that time, the United States, which had enormous influence over Israel, did not draw a red line to constrain Israel's behavior. Now, Haniah's death has directly undermined the Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire negotiations promoted by the United States, and United States did not know about the attack on Chaniyeh in advance. But United States still refuses to draw red lines.

On August 1, United States President Joseph · Biden spoke with Israel Prime Minister Benjamin · Netanyahu to announce new military support to Israel. Even European and American scholars have begun to complain that United States' approach is exacerbating the turmoil in the Middle East.

Iran considers a counterattack

Iran officials revealed that on Thursday, Iran will meet with representatives of Hamas, the Lebanon Allah Party, the Yemen Houthis and Iraq pro-Iran forces in Tehran, the Iran capital, to discuss how to retaliate against Israel. Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Ali Khamenei and senior members of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will attend.

Haniyeh was attacked in the Iranian capital while attending the swearing-in ceremony of Iran's new president, Massoud · Pezekhitsian, and the time and place of his attack were undoubtedly a direct provocation and threat to Iran: if you can attack Haniah in Tehran, you can also attack Iran's top or other pro-Iran armed leaders in Tehran. Middle Eastern officials have recently revealed that the explosive device that killed Chania was smuggled into Chania's residence two months ago, and the explosives were remotely detonated.

Several Middle Eastern officials also said that while Israel officials did not officially admit responsibility for the attack, Israel intelligence officials briefed United States and other Western governments on the details of the operation after the attack on Chania.

Ali · Akbar · Ahmadiyan, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of the Iran, has announced that the "axis of resistance" led by Iran will retaliate against Hania's death on "all fronts". The "Axis of Resistance" includes anti-US and anti-Israeli forces such as the Iran Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, the Lebanon Allah Party, the Yemen Houthis, Hamas, the Iraq and Syria forces.

Lebanon Allah Party leader Saeed · Hassan · Nasrallah warned on Thursday that the group's conflict with Israel had entered a "new phase." He announced that he would carry out a "carefully studied counterattack" against Israel, but did not say how it would be counterattacked. On the same day, Allah held a funeral for the group's senior military commander, Shukur, who is also a senior adviser to Nasrallah.

Iran officials say Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has called for a direct attack on Israel. Iran's military is considering launching drone and missile strikes on military targets near Israel's Tel Aviv and Haifa, with civilian targets out of consideration. Another option is to Iran a coordinated attack with the Lebanon Allah and other armed forces to achieve maximum effect.

This scene is also a repetition of April.

At that time, Iran launched nearly 400 missiles and drones at Israel mainland, but before the launch, it repeatedly announced through the media and excluded civilian targets from the strike range. Most of these missiles and drones were intercepted by United States, Israel and neighboring countries, and there were no Israel casualties.

Israel then launched a missile counterattack in Isfahan Province, where several of Iran's nuclear facilities are located, and the counterattack did not cause damage to Iran's nuclear facilities. Subsequently, the two countries ceased their retaliatory and counter-retaliatory actions.

United States officials expect Iran to act in the coming days. The operation will be similar to the April strike, consisting of drones and missiles, but likely to be larger and more complex, with pro-Iran forces likely to coordinate attacks in the event of an Iran attack.

vicious circle

Iran and Israel's actions in April were carefully calculated restraint and counter-retaliation, making it clear that neither country wants to wage a full-scale war in the Middle East. But with the Israeli-Palestinian conflict lingering and Israel carrying out another assassination attempt on Iran soil, tensions in the Middle East have escalated again, increasing the risk of miscalculation leading to an intensification of the conflict.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on Thursday declared a state of high alert in response to possible retaliatory actions by Iran and the armed forces. Israel Defense Forces spokesman Daniel · Hagari said Israel has a good defense system. In addition, "international partners" have also stepped up their presence in the Middle East to assist Israel in countering threats. When Iran retaliated against Israel in April, Jordan and other Arab countries assisted Israel in intercepting missiles.

United States officials are meeting with Jordan, Qatar and other countries to persuade Iran not to fight back or to refrain from retaliation, and the European Union's coordinator for Iran's nuclear talks, Enrique · Mora, met directly with Iran officials in Tehran.

While calling on Iran to exercise restraint, the United States did not criticize Israel's actions for undermining the Palestinian-Israeli ceasefire talks, but spoke out in support of Israel and continued its contradictory posture of "fighting fires while pouring oil."

On Thursday, Biden spoke with Netanyahu. While calling on Israel to reach a ceasefire agreement as soon as possible and acknowledging that Hania's death is not conducive to negotiations, Biden also made it clear United States that he will help Israel defend against "all threats" from Iran and various armed forces.

Biden also announced that United States will send additional military support to help Israel respond to possible drone and missile attacks, but United States has not said exactly what additional military resources will be sent. In June, United States aircraft carrier "Eisenhower" left the Red Sea, and the "Roosevelt" aircraft carrier battle group traveled from the Pacific Ocean to the Middle East, and is now in the Gulf of Oman. The amphibious assault ship USS Wasp, which carries F-35 fighters, and several U.S. Navy ships also patrol the eastern Eastern Mediterranean.

United States and European scholars have begun to criticize Israel's practice of not drawing red lines for Israel and conniving at Israel's escalation while pushing for peace talks.

Speaking out on multiple platforms, Wali · Nasr, a professor of international studies at Johns · Hopkins University, said that United States did not know about the attack on Chania in advance, indicating that United States was "out of control" with the Israel.

He said that Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and U.A.E. all hope for a ceasefire between Palestine and Israel, and do not want to see the Palestinian-Israeli conflict expand into a regional war. But when countries expect United States to influence Israel, they see that United States is unable to restrain it, unwilling to restrain it, or does not know how to restrain Israel. And the very fact that Israel is able to circumvent United States' actions and escalate regional tensions will make United States' Middle East allies even more uneasy.

Tahani · Mustafa, an analyst on Palestine at the International Crisis Group, believes that while no country wants a full-scale war in the Middle East, Israel's continued provocations are leading the Middle East to war. If Israel allows the conflict to escalate without consequences, the Israel government will continue its current provocative behavior and push the situation to a breaking point. Mustafa said that United States' refusal to draw red lines for Israel is to condone Israel to escalate the situation.

Bilal ·Saab, an associate researcher at the Middle East and North Africa Program at the Royal United Kingdom Institute of International Affairs, writes that all United States politicians are busy United States presidential elections, and no one is drawing a coherent course to prevent the expansion of the conflict in the Middle East.

Saab believes that while the Biden administration has repeatedly called for de-escalation in the Middle East, no United States leader has made it clear to Netanyahu what the red line cannot be crossed. An important reason for this is that if United States Republican presidential candidates Donald · Trump or Kamala ·Harris, who is about to receive the Democratic nominee, decide to suspend military aid to Israel, both of them could end their political careers.