Per reporter: Wang Yandan Per editor: He Jianling
Image source: Photo.com
In recent years, fixed income + products with secondary debt-based and partial debt hybrid funds as the main stream have created incomes that surpass the Shanghai Composite Index with lower volatility, and the cost performance is higher. At the same time, due to the accelerated transformation of bank wealth management products, more and more investors are considering adjusting the allocation of bank wealth management funds to non-monetary public funds. In this case, the fixed income + fund characterized by low drawdown and steady return has become the preferred alternative to bank wealth management products, and has also become the choice of more and more investors, playing the role of "ballast stone" for family wealth management.
But in the face of a variety of fixed income + related products, how should investors choose and how to choose the time? On the afternoon of September 17, Hou Jie, fund manager of China Merchants Ruiyang, visited the live broadcast room of the daily economic news Weibo "Hao Ge's Afternoon Tea", shared his views on the recent stock market with investors, and gave suggestions for investing in "fixed income +".
Hou Jie, fund manager of China Merchants Ruiyang (Source: Provided by the interviewee)
<h2>The ratio of stocks to bonds in "Fixed Income+" is dynamically adjusted</h2>
Hou Jiexian explained the concept of "fixed income +" for investors. He pointed out that in fact, there is no fixed definition of "fixed income +", in overseas markets, it can add some bonds to the portfolio, but also some stocks, and even some commodities. For investors of "fixed income +", they are mainly pursuing relatively safe returns while increasing earnings by adding stocks and other ways. However, everyone's tolerance for volatility is different, and in general, they still want to increase their earnings while minimizing volatility.
At the same time, Hou Jie shared some experiences in "fixed income +" investment with investors. He pointed out that many people are concerned about the proportion of equity and debt in the "fixed income +" product, but in fact, there is no fixed model, and dynamic adjustments will be made according to the market conditions of the stock and bond market. For example, China Merchants Fund's Rui series fixed income + products, the company provides unified investment and research resource support, flexible large-scale asset allocation, allocation strategy according to the equity-debt risk-return ratio within the risk limit range of dynamic optimization adjustment; on the basis of large-scale asset allocation, select individual stocks, and further strive to provide drawdown protection and offensiveness for the portfolio.
<h2>When the stock valuation is low and there are positive changes, it will be a good time to increase the position</h2>
Hou Jie pointed out that when the "fixed income +" is operated, when to increase the stock allocation and how to increase it, it is very challenging for the fund manager, which involves the problem of balancing returns and risks.
In simple terms, it can be summarized as "stocks add a little more at a low level, and stocks add a little less at a high level", but it is a difficult thing to judge when a stock is at a low level and when it is at a high level. Of course, there are sometimes valuation poles, such as the end of 2007 and the middle of 2015, the stock market is significantly overvalued, it may be easier to make decisions, but most of the time the market is not extreme. Overall, when the valuation of the stock market is relatively low and there are some positive changes, it may be a better allocation point, so it is necessary to dynamically observe macro data, industry policies, etc.
He pointed out that the "fixed income +" products of different investment strategies have different methods of operation for fund managers. Some fund managers will not be particularly time-picked, but good at digging deep in individual stocks; there is also a type of fund manager, in the case of market risk, if the stock position is very low, but the opportunity arises, it may also increase the position, and even half of the equity-debt ratio, which requires the fund manager's timing ability very high. Hou Jie said frankly that because he is relatively optimistic about the A-share market, he will usually maintain a relatively high position, and then take the initiative to reduce his position when he predicts the risk.
At the same time, he shared one of his feelings: it is very important to select individual stocks from the bottom up. When tracking plates on a daily basis, he will spend more energy tracking some of the larger declines to find out whether they will change fundamentally at low levels. He noted that, at the end of the day, it was a way to balance gains and drawdowns. As a "fixed income plus" investment, it is necessary to balance the relationship between returns and volatility. It may be that some stocks will rise to 200 times the price-earnings ratio after rising to 100 times the price-earnings ratio, but the ensuing volatility will also increase, and the margin of safety is very important.
<h2>Optimistic about banks, securities companies, consumption and other low-valued industries</h2>
When the Shanghai index oscillated around 3700 points, Hou Jie shared the industries and sectors that he is currently concerned about "positive changes under low valuations".
Banks and securities companies are the two major sectors that Hou Jie pays more attention to at present. Optimistic about the banking sector, one is because the bad debts in the banking industry have been very sufficient in the past few years, and the asset quality of the banking sector has now reached a historically good level; second, because the demand for wealth management is increasing, and the industry boom is constantly increasing; third, the current valuation of the banking sector is low enough.
Brokerages are similar to logic, and some brokers also hold fund subsidiaries. Judging from the semi-annual report, the profit growth rate of mainstream fund companies in the first half of this year is relatively good, and the valuation of securities companies themselves is necessary to revaluate. In the long run, under the big wealth management system, China's capital market and securities industry still have a lot of room for development.
In addition, Hou Jie also specifically mentioned consumer stocks. He pointed out that the current valuation of the consumer sector has fallen to a low level, and if there are positive changes in the economy, it will bring them layout opportunities.
He specifically mentioned the farming industry, which has suffered a double blow to performance and stock prices due to the decline in pig prices. He pointed out that in the near future, pig prices have fallen more sharply, and it may be a low point in the middle of next year. Generally speaking, the stock market will reflect the expectation of the bottom of the prosperity in advance, and the aquaculture industry has the expectation of a fundamental improvement, which can be arranged accordingly.
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