In the past two days, the Philippines has completed the replenishment of supplies at Ren'ai Jiao, which is also the first time that the Philippines has resupplied daily necessities to its broken ship after China and the Philippines reached a "temporary arrangement" earlier. #军史观察团#
With regard to the "interim arrangement", China has previously clearly stated its principled position on the Philippines, requiring the latter to deliver necessary daily necessities to the broken ship only by strictly implementing the procedures of advance notice and accepting on-site inspection and full monitoring by the Chinese side before fulfilling its commitment to tow the broken ship away.
At the same time, the Chinese side also made it clear to the Philippines that if the Philippines violates the law in carrying out relevant supply tasks, that is, it attempts to resupply broken ships for reinforcement and other illegal building materials, China will continue to take necessary measures to stop it.
In the past, the Philippines has secretly transported illegal building materials to broken ships under the guise of transporting daily necessities, and China's move not only breaks off the Philippines' idea of such operations, but also demonstrates our willingness to return to communication and dialogue with the Philippine side.
The Philippines didn't appreciate it at first.
After China announced the relevant "temporary arrangements", the Philippines made a series of noises.
First, the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs flatly denied it, accusing the Chinese side of "not being true" and saying that the Chinese side would not be informed in advance of future supplies.
Immediately afterwards, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos also hyped up the South China Sea issue in his State of the Union address, threatening that the Philippines would not give in.
However, according to the Chinese Coast Guard, in the latest replenishment of Ren'ai Jiao, the Philippines did not go its own way as previously clamored, but completed the replenishment in strict accordance with the "temporary arrangement" reached by China and the Philippines.
Although the Philippines later denied the Chinese coast guard's claims, according to normal logic, if the Philippines refuses to abide by its commitments and agreements, it is almost impossible for them to complete the replenishment under China's close surveillance.
At this time, the Philippines should only be able to quibble verbally, that is, the Marcos government wants to cover up the fact that it is soft on China.
As for the purpose, on the one hand, it may be that it is worried about arousing the dissatisfaction of pro-American forces in the Philippines, and on the other hand, it may be deliberately said to the United States.
United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken is about to visit the Philippines, and the Marcos administration is clearly hoping for some support from United States.
There may be three main reasons why Marcos fulfilled his promise at this time.
First, less than 24 hours before the Philippines carried out the resupply mission, the Chinese and Philippine foreign ministers held talks in Laos.
Wang Yi made very serious remarks at this meeting.
Wang Yi said that the "temporary arrangement" reached by China and the Philippines is conducive to maintaining stability at sea, but if such a commitment or agreement is to achieve the desired effect, the Philippines must fulfill its commitments.
If the Philippines changes its orders and backtracks on its word, and insists on repeatedly going backwards and causing extraneous problems, China will resolutely respond to it.
In the past, no matter how much the Philippines clamoured, we have always kept the door open for dialogue with the Philippines. Public opinion believes that China's escalation of rhetoric is tantamount to China's further ultimatum to the Philippines on the Ren'ai Jiao issue.
The implication is that if the Philippines still wants to live up to China's goodwill, then we do not rule out escalating countermeasures. Even if the Chinese side does not directly destroy or tow the broken ship away, as long as we close the window for humanitarian supplies to the Philippines, it is estimated that it will be difficult for this broken ship, which has been illegally beached for more than 20 years, to survive.
To sum up, the Philippines still wants to resupply the broken ship, that is, it must fulfill its commitments and act in strict accordance with China's requirements.
The Marcos administration apparently realized the seriousness of the problem from China's rhetoric, and it retracted its previous rhetoric.
Second, to a certain extent, it is inevitable that Marcos will be soft on China in the direction of Ren'ai Jiao. As mentioned above, the wrecked ship is almost untenable. The Philippines has repeatedly reversed course and risked transporting illegal building materials to the broken ship many times in the past, but in fact, they are very aware of the specific situation of the broken ship.
Under such circumstances, the Philippines certainly has no reason to give up the opportunity given by China again. Wang Yi said so seriously, the Philippines is also worried that if they can't seize this opportunity, what awaits them is only an outcome like the breakdown of the ship.
Finally, Marcos should have also assessed the wind direction of the United States, Japan and other countries.
During the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting, the two major backers of the Philippines, United States and Japan, actively engaged in dialogue with Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
It is undeniable that the political significance of these dialogues is far greater than the practical significance. However, as far as the Philippines is concerned, as long as the United States, Japan and other countries are unwilling to turn the table, the substantive support that the Philippines can obtain from the outside for China's provocations is extremely limited.
However, considering that the Philippines began to make noise again after completing the replenishment, this shows that the "temporary arrangement" reached by China and the Philippines is still facing many uncertainties if it wants to continue.
However, as Foreign Minister Wang Yi said, if the Philippines fails to fulfill its commitments, China will resolutely respond. The Marcos administration is advised to seriously weigh whether the Philippines can afford to exhaust China's patience and goodwill.