I thought that Blinken's trip to Asia to put Mongolia at the last stop was the main event, but judging from Mongolia's current bright attitude, Blinken is likely to be disappointed. #军史观察团#
Blinken's visit to Viet Nam and other six countries surrounding China this time is not untargeted. For example, Japan and the Philippines have been on the front line of cooperating with United States against China.
Some public opinion believes that Blinken's visit is actually aimed at consolidating a kind of "encirclement" against China by strengthening relations with these countries.
The reason why Mongolia was put last is probably to take into account the special geographical location of Mongolia. Regardless of whether Blinken's trip can reach any substantive consensus with Mongolia, such a political show can distract China and Russia to a certain extent.
To put it bluntly, the United States is now also out of tricks, and can only create some trouble for China and Russia through these tricks with far greater political significance than practical significance.
Before his departure, Blinken revealed that he would meet with Foreign Minister Wang Yi during his second stop in Laos to attend the ASEAN Regional Forum Foreign Ministers' Meeting.
Blinken's first talks with the Chinese side and then his visits to Japan, the Philippines and Mongolia are obviously of deep significance.
We speculate that Blinken is using these three countries as a bargaining chip to force China to make concessions on certain issues.
Not long ago, Japan and the Philippines signed an "Agreement on Mutual Visits of Troops" to further strengthen military cooperation. This was followed by separate calls from Japan and the Philippines to China, one reiterating that it would not budge on the South China Sea issue and the other describing China as its biggest challenge.
If nothing else, Japan and the Philippines will certainly be happy to act as United States bargaining chips.
But this time, Mongolia hit the brakes.
Prior to this, Mongolia had diplomatically placed a "third neighbor" such as United States on the same footing as China and Russia. In order to show the importance of United States, Mongolia even considered bypassing China and Russia to transport rare earths and other critical mineral resources to United States.
Although Mongolia had politely rejected United States' request to station troops, Mongolia still maintained close military ties with United States, such as the "Khan Quest" series of joint exercises led by the United States and Mongolia, which have continued since 2003.
According to normal logic, in the face of Blinken's visit, Mongolia even if it is to maintain a close relationship with United States, at least the face that should be given will definitely be given. If Blinken promises some benefits, Mongolia will not rule out pandering to the United States to make some noises that are unfavorable to China and Russia.
For Mongolia, similar "routines" have long been familiar.
But it is estimated that even Blinken did not expect that before others arrived in Mongolia, Mongolia first gave United States a "dismount".
According to the Ministry of National Defense, the People's Liberation Army (PLA) will be invited to send an army detachment to Mongolia in late July to participate in the Khan Exploration-2024 joint exercise. From the perspective of time, the time for the PLA to participate in the exercise in Mongolia should precede Blinken's visit to Mongolia.
As mentioned above, this series of exercises is led by the United States and Mongolia, and the political significance of this series of exercises is far greater than its military significance.
Mongolia's invitation to the PLA at this time is tantamount to telling United States that for Mongolia, the development of relations with China is as important as the development of relations with China, and Mongolia will not do anything to stab China in the back.
With such a premise, even if Blinken lobbied the latter to confront China during his visit to Mongolia, he will not get any positive response.
As for why Mongolia has a clear attitude towards the United States, we believe that in addition to Mongolia's close political and economic ties with China, and its own unlikely to be on the front line of confrontation like Japan and the Philippines, there may be two major reasons.
First of all, Mongolia don't believe that the United States at this time can come up with any substantial benefits.
The reason is simple: the United States election is full of too many variables, and the benefits promised by the Biden administration at this time may not be fulfilled later. In the long run, it will only be a few months away anyway, and even if Mongolia still wants to eat both between China and United States, Mongolia can still wait.
Second, it is too dangerous for Mongolia to cooperate with United States to further confront China at this time. Once Mongolia make concessions on some key issues, there is no guarantee that United States will not deploy intermediate-range missiles in the Mongolia, which will bring huge risks to Mongolia's national security.
United States itself wants to strengthen its military presence in Mongolia, and Blinken's visit to Mongolia at the time of the "Khan Exploration-2024" joint exercise cannot be ruled out as a test for Mongolia.
But for now, Mongolia doesn't seem to be planning to give Blinken a chance to speak.
Of course, considering that Mongolia's relations with the West are still getting closer, even if Mongolia politely rejects Blinken's woo this time, it may still become a destabilizing factor in the future around China and Russia.
In general, whether China and Russia strongly invite Mongolia to join the SCO, or whether China and Russia are open to Mongolia's participation in the Far East gas supply project, it is a reflection of the importance that China and Russia attach to the development of relations with Mongolia. If Mongolia falls to the West, it will probably lose much more than it can gain.