After Surin was elected general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam, his foreign policy attracted much attention from the outside world. #军史观察团#
There are two main reasons for this.
One is that Surin was once seen as Nguyen Phu Trong's successor. The day before Nguyen Phu Trong's death, Surin was de facto acting as general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam.
Nguyen Phu Trong's tenure has embraced the idea of "bamboo diplomacy," which simply means that Viet Nam refuses to take sides in great power competition and prefers to establish friendly relations with countries around the world based on their own interests.
Given that United States is still trying to woo Viet Nam, if Surin can continue this policy diplomatically, it will obviously help to manage the situation of regional confrontation.
Second, led by the Philippines, Viet Nam has also made some noise on the South China Sea issue. At present, the Philippines is still actively intervening in regional affairs with the United States, Japan and other countries, and once Viet Nam goes further on the South China Sea issue, it will have a negative impact on Sino-Vietnamese relations and peace and stability in the region.
Therefore, we can understand that the most concerned thing is actually whether Viet Nam will lean towards United States after Surin is elected, and whether Viet Nam will change its China policy.
As for the questions that the outside world is concerned about, Surin has already given a clear answer at the press conference after his election.
Surin's exact words were: We do not change our foreign policy. At the same time, Surin also stressed that he will continue to strengthen Viet Nam's contribution to world and regional peace and development.
The translation should be that Viet Nam is not interested in cooperating with United States in provoking confrontation in the region.
As for Surin's China policy after his election, we can refer to his previous statement when he met with Chinese Ambassador to Viet Nam Xiong Bo. Surin reiterated at that time that for Viet Nam, developing relations with China remains the top priority of Viet Nam's foreign policy.
Based on such statements, some analysts believe that at least for a long time, Viet Nam should continue the established line established during Nguyen Phu Trong's term of office in terms of relations with China.
Of course, this is not to say that Viet Nam will alienate United States. Since United States President Joe Biden's visit to Viet Nam last year, the U.S.-Vietnam relationship has been upgraded to a comprehensive strategic partnership, and United States has become de facto one of Viet Nam's highest diplomatic ranks.
This means that Viet Nam will most likely maintain some balance between Vietnam-China, Vietnam-Russia and Vietnam-US relations.
The Chinese side has said on many occasions that we are always open to normal exchanges and cooperation between relevant countries. Although the "bamboo diplomacy" pursued by Viet Nam is quite a source of left and right, as long as Viet Nam's development of relations with United States does not harm China's interests, it will not actually have any negative impact on the development of Sino-Vietnamese relations.
However, such "bamboo diplomacy" is not what United States wants to see.
In the past, United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited a number of countries surrounding China, starting with Viet Nam and ending with Mongolia.
For Blinken's trip, public opinion generally believes that this is part of the Biden administration's vigorous promotion of the "Indo-Pacific strategy", and the United States hopes to consolidate the "encirclement" formed against China through such high-level diplomacy.
Viet Nam has repeatedly asked the United States in the past to remove the country's so-called "non-market economy country" label. According to the original plan, the Biden administration should give Viet Nam a final answer on July 26. However, due to technical problems, the US side did not announce the final decision until August 2.
Taken together, Blinken does not rule out that such a decision is used as a bargaining chip to lobby Viet Nam.
According to Viet Nam's relevant regulations, the "troika" positions in the country's top leadership, including the general secretary of the CPV Central Committee, are often held only by those who have served in the Politburo of the CPV Central Committee for more than a year. And only Surin and Viet Nam Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh meet this requirement.
Coincidentally, Blinken also made two bets during his visit to Viet Nam, holding talks with Surin and Pham Minh Chinh respectively.
Judging from Blinken's later visits to Japan, the Philippines, Mongolia and other countries, Blinken probably also made some noises that were not conducive to Sino-Vietnamese relations during his visit to Viet Nam.
From this point of view, the United States' final announcement the day before Surin's election that Viet Nam will continue to be recognized as a "non-market economy country" is likely that Blinken's visit to Vietnam did not get what he wanted. Specifically picked at this point in time, it cannot be ruled out that it is a disadvantage for Su Lin to be elected.
However, I am afraid that such a blow by the US side may not be able to achieve the desired results.
On the one hand, Viet Nam has expressed its disappointment with the US decision. Faced with high tariffs on exports to the United States, Viet Nam is likely to strengthen trade cooperation with other friendly countries to eliminate such an impact.
On the other hand, at the critical moment, China and Russia gave Viet Nam reassurance.
Less than 24 hours after Surin was elected, the Chinese and Russian leaders congratulated him by telephone and telegram. In the congratulations, the Chinese and Russian leaders both talked about one point, that is, they hope to continue to strengthen cooperation with Viet Nam. With the strong support of China and Russia, United States want to use trade to put pressure on Viet Nam, and it will inevitably only gain more than it loses.