Abstract:Although the development of sodium batteries has cooled down, with the continuous increase of policies and standards, the continuous development of enterprise layout and strategic capital, the increasing maturity of core technologies and the perfection of the industrial chain, the gradual emergence of cost advantages and scale effects, and the effective expansion of downstream application markets and new scenarios, the growth potential and development opportunities of the sodium battery industry will also be released one after another.
The site of the 2024 China (Wuxi) Sodium Battery Industry Ecosystem Entrepreneur Summit
On July 24, the "2024 China (Wuxi) Sodium Battery Industry Ecosystem Entrepreneur Summit" hosted by Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance and China Battery Network, and guided by the People's Government of Xishan District, Wuxi City, was held in Xishan District, Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province.
With the theme of "Building a Sodium Electricity Ecology and Sharing Industrial Opportunities", the summit focused on the cutting-edge technology, development model, investment layout, industrial chain construction, market application and future trends of the sodium battery and energy storage industry, jointly explored the road of high-quality development of the industry, promoted the resonance of upstream and downstream supply and demand, and helped industrial innovation and upgrading.
The application of sodium electricity has gained momentum
According to the predictions of market-related research institutions, sodium-ion batteries are expected to form a market size of 100 billion yuan in the next 5-10 years.
At present, in terms of application market, energy storage is the largest application market for sodium-ion batteries, followed by electric two-wheelers and new energy vehicles.
Yu Qingjiao, Secretary General of Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance
"This year is a critical year for the development of the sodium battery industry, the industrial chain is constantly improving, and the prototype of the industrial chain matching cathode materials, anode materials, separators, electrolytes, etc. has emerged, and the industrial development is gradually moving towards a synergistic effect." Yu Qingjiao, Secretary-General of Zhongguancun New Battery Technology Innovation Alliance, said, "At the same time, the downstream application market is also further opened, with sodium battery two-wheeled vehicles on sale, new energy mass production models delivered, and large-capacity energy storage power stations put into operation." ”
Zhao Yongqiang, Director of the Renewable Energy Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission
In the field of energy storage, Zhao Yongqiang, director of the Renewable Energy Center of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that from the perspective of new energy storage technology routes, costs have been declining in the past few years; In the long run, cost, safety, and resource security are the most critical driving factors for its technological development. The safety issues of large-scale new energy storage development are becoming increasingly prominent, and sodium-ion batteries have become one of their technical routes due to their excellent performance.
Haiyan Wang, Professor/Doctoral Supervisor of Central South University
In the research direction of low-cost, high-safety and long-life energy storage batteries, Wang Haiyan, professor/doctoral supervisor of Central South University, also mentioned that although the energy density of sodium-ion batteries is low, they have great advantages in resources, cost, safety, power performance, low temperature performance, etc., and the production process is compatible, which can complement lithium-ion batteries and have broad application prospects.
Gu Wenhao, head of the Xishan District People's Government
In the field of electric two-wheeled vehicles, Gu Wenhao, head of the People's Government of Xishan District, said that in the sodium battery industry, Xishan actively embraces the "sodium" outlet, seizes the "sodium" track, and relies on its own industrial advantages of "two-wheeled electric vehicle production reaches one-third of the country" to accelerate the application demonstration of "sodium electricity + electric two-wheeled vehicles".
Judging from the latest progress of sodium battery industry projects, the first flexible mass production line of sodium-ion batteries in the country of the Pangu New Energy Project, which will be implemented in 2023, has been officially put into operation, and the sodium electric models of leading electric vehicle companies such as Yadea, Xinri, and Tailing have been put on the market one after another, and the emerging industry of sodium batteries and the traditional industries of electric vehicles have achieved two-way empowerment and complementary advantages in Xishan.
Hu Mingxiang, chairman of Wuxi Pangu New Energy Co., Ltd
Hu Mingxiang, chairman of Wuxi Pangu New Energy Co., Ltd., pointed out that at present, the electric bicycle industry chain has begun to act, Honda, Harley, Ducati and other brand motorcycles have begun to transform into electrification, Huawei Hongmeng, Tencent, Midea and other giants have also begun to participate in the layout of electric bicycles across the border, and vertical enterprises such as tower battery swap, Dudu battery swap, and Fodi battery have begun to deploy sodium electricity.
Lei Baorong, deputy general manager/chief engineer of Jiangsu Xinri Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd
"Not only the mainland is developing sodium batteries, the international market is also increasing, and it is also the future development trend" Lei Baorong, deputy general manager / chief engineer of Jiangsu Xinri Electric Vehicle Co., Ltd., mentioned that "relevant institutions predict that sodium electricity will exceed 2.3 billion US dollars in 2028" is a bit conservative, if China's sodium battery application has developed by leaps and bounds, exports in the international market are the absolute main force.
Lei Baorong further introduced that in the past ten years, China's production and sales of electric vehicles have been in the leading position in the world, reaching about 56.8 million units in 2023, and the number of ownership will reach 420 million (60% of electric motorcycles, 3kWh per unit; 30% of the electric self-class, each with 1.125kwh, 15 million takeaway express two-wheelers, plus 3 times, and 10% of tricycles, with 3.5kwh each), the huge stock of electric vehicles, resulting in a huge demand for batteries. It predicts that if 50% of the 420 million market stock is replaced with sodium batteries, the output value of sodium batteries will exceed 260 billion yuan.
Shi Binbin, deputy general manager of Tailing Technology Co., Ltd
Shi Binbin, deputy general manager of Tailing Technology Co., Ltd., also said that sodium electric technology can significantly improve the mileage and charging speed of electric vehicles, reduce the battery decay rate, and with the continuous growth of the market demand for two-wheeled electric vehicles, sodium electric technology has become a new trend in the development of the industry. At present, sodium electric technology has been applied in some high-end two-wheeled electric vehicles, and has achieved good market feedback.
Teng Xinxin, General Manager of Sodium Electricity Division of Huayou New Energy Technology (Quzhou) Co., Ltd
However, in the field of new energy vehicles, the current market penetration of sodium batteries has not really opened. Teng Xinxin, general manager of the sodium battery business department of Huayou New Energy Technology (Quzhou) Co., Ltd., introduced that in the A00 scenario, although there are many sodium electric models on the market, in the short term, the A00 scenario does not have the conditions for large-scale volume, continue to reduce costs, continue to improve the mileage, pay attention to whether CATL and other companies can really push the lithium-sodium mixed AB battery mentioned in the 2021 press conference to mass production, which is the follow-up highlight of the A00 scenario.
Zeng Tao, Executive General Manager of China International Capital Corporation Limited/Chief Analyst of Power Equipment and New Energy Industry
Zeng Tao, executive general manager of China International Capital Corporation and chief analyst of the power equipment and new energy industry, said that the industrialization of sodium batteries is crossing the 0 to 1 stage. After the shortage of lithium resources in 2021 put the industrialization of sodium batteries back on the agenda, at present, the supporting facilities of the sodium battery industry chain in mainland China have begun to take shape and enter the introduction period, and many companies have built GWh-level battery production capacity and material production capacity of more than 1,000 tons; At the same time, commercial cases have appeared in the fields of energy storage systems, electric vehicles, and electric bicycles. He predicts that the potential market space for global sodium batteries will reach 50.1GWh in 2028. At the same time, sodium electric materials have entered the 1 to 10 stages, and the era of large-scale supply is expected to open in 2027.
Technology-driven towards "sodium".
It can be seen that the sodium battery application market is gradually opening up, among which the continuous breakthrough of technology is the main driving force.
Xie Fei, associate researcher at the Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
"The rapid development of sodium-ion batteries has obvious advantages such as long life, wide temperature range, high rate, easy manufacturing, low cost and high safety, which make sodium-ion batteries have great potential in the field of new energy storage and electric vehicles." At the meeting, Xie Fei, an associate researcher at the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, pointed out that the most critical core points for the future performance improvement and application scenario optimization of sodium-ion batteries lie in the three parts of the positive electrode, negative electrode and electrolyte. Among them, the most mainstream anode materials are carbon-free materials, as well as organic, oxide, sulfide and other different technical routes.
Wang Haiyan said that the anode sodium-free battery has the advantages of high specific energy and low cost, and is a promising next-generation sodium-ion battery technology, and is expected to iterate to the anode sodium-free solid-state battery system.
Jiangxi Anchi New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. Deputy Director of Battery Cell Products/Dr. Liu Xia
"As a traditional manufacturer of lithium-ion battery cells, Anchi Technology is also closely following the latest industry trends in sodium-ion batteries and carrying out relevant R&D and product layout." Liu Xia, deputy director/doctor of battery cell products of Jiangxi Anchi New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., introduced that the resources, safety and cost of lithium batteries have boosted the application of sodium batteries. The material system of sodium-ion battery has changed, and corresponding measures should be taken in terms of cathode, anode and battery cell to adapt to the sodium-ion battery system.
Yang Daojun, General Manager/Dr. of Beijing Xibei Power Technology Co., Ltd
Yang Daojun, general manager/doctor of Beijing Xibei Power Technology Co., Ltd., introduced, "The company has developed a sodium-ion battery with a high report in the industry, with a specific energy of 260 watt-hours per kilogram at 25 degrees Celsius and 204 at minus 40 degrees Celsius."
Zhang Hui, Deputy General Manager and Dean of the Research Institute of Shenzhen Zhongxing New Material Technology Co., Ltd
"In the same way as lithium batteries, sodium-ion batteries are mainly composed of a positive electrode, a negative electrode, an electrolyte and a separator." Zhang Hui, deputy general manager and dean of the research institute of Shenzhen Zhongxing New Material Technology Co., Ltd., pointed out that sodium batteries can help with the advantages of chemical stability, mechanical strength, wettability, pore size and distribution, thermal stability, thinning and low cost by improving the properties of different materials, while also having specific needs for separator performance.
Bian Huijuan, general manager of operations of Zhejiang Shuangyuan Technology Co., Ltd
In the equipment link, Bian Huijuan, general manager of operations of Zhejiang Shuangyuan Technology Co., Ltd., introduced the new application of Shuangyuan Technology's new products in various production links of sodium electricity. For example, CT nondestructive testing, the light pipe penetrates the cell, and after taking images from multiple angles, the three-dimensional model is reconstructed, which can cut the part, and the OH value can be directly determined after AI deep learning. The cylindrical battery coating detection system uses CCD to obtain the picture information of the side and upper and lower sides of the battery, and completes the judgment of the surface defects of the cylindrical battery through AI deep learning algorithm, with a false judgment rate of ≤3% and a missed detection rate = 0.
Recently, the battery network found from the official website of the State Intellectual Property Office that according to incomplete statistics, according to the date of disclosure / authorization, as of June 30, this year's newly announced invention patents related to sodium-ion batteries reached 1,681, 371 newly authorized invention patents, and 79 utility model patents.
Since July, from July 1 to July 15, in just half a month, there have been more than 100 newly announced invention patents related to the field of sodium-ion batteries, reaching 103, 39 newly authorized invention patents and 7 newly authorized utility model patents.
"In the next few years, the technology change of sodium electricity will exceed the expectations of most people." Teng Xinxin introduced that the Huayou sodium power team has also counted the number of patent applications in the past 20 years, with more than 4,900 patent applications from 2004 to 2019, and more than 7,000 applications in nearly four years from 2020 to 2024. Teng Xinxin further dismantled the example: "Since 2016, the Ningde Department has made a patent layout related to sodium electricity, and the entire Ningde Department has been searched 609 times. ”
The prospects are promising, but challenges remain
At present, the application of sodium battery market has been developed, technology research and development is blooming, and the future growth potential is expected, but it is undeniable that sodium battery still faces many challenges.
In June this year, the "White Paper on the Development of China's Sodium-Ion Battery Industry (2024)" jointly released by the research institute EVTank, the Ivey Economic Research Institute and the China Battery Industry Research Institute showed that the actual shipment of China's sodium-ion batteries in 2023 will only be 0.7GWh, far lower than the previous forecast of 3GWh.
Yu Qingjiao believes that whether it is the replacement of lead-acid batteries in the field of two-wheeled electric vehicles, or the complementarity of lithium batteries in the field of energy storage and new energy vehicles, the cost advantage of sodium batteries has not yet appeared. Therefore, it is imperative to promote the expansion of the sodium battery market and reduce costs, including cost reduction by scale effect, cost reduction by technological progress, cost reduction by supply chain links, etc.
Zeng Tao analyzed that since the second half of 2022, all links of the lithium battery industry chain have entered a downward cycle, which is reflected in the obvious decline in the quotation end, and most of the lithium battery material links are in the break-even line and are in an unreasonable quotation state, which has also led to a significant decline in the BOM cost of lithium batteries, and the current single wh cost of ternary/iron lithium battery cells is estimated at 0.46/0.34 yuan. Sodium batteries are still in the early stage of industrialization, and the scale effect has not yet appeared, so the price of its industrial chain is still far from the ideal price.
From the current point of view, Zeng Tao suggested that enterprises in the sodium electricity industry chain need to work more hard to find differentiated competitive advantages. At present, the performance of copper-based sodium-ion batteries surpasses that of lead-acid batteries, and there is still a certain gap between them and lithium iron phosphate batteries in terms of energy density, but they are close to or even better than lithium iron phosphate in terms of low temperature performance, safety, and environmental protection. Therefore, the current comprehensive capacity of sodium batteries has been close to the needs of low-speed electric vehicles, power tools, household storage and other scenarios.
Through in-depth cost analysis, Yang Daojun believes that the exploration of sodium electric opportunities focuses on increasing specific energy. How to increase specific energy? Material progress + process optimization = high specific energy technology. Yang Daojun pointed out that the four major technical directions to achieve high specific energy of sodium-ion batteries are positive and negative extremes, electrolytes, and electrode design. According to the problems that need to be solved urgently in the characteristics of the corresponding materials, Yang Daojun proposed corresponding strategies, which are: at the cathode material end, the high-entropy strategy is used to stabilize the O3 phase structure and increase the voltage of the polyanion system; At the anode material end, Sn-based alloy, P/C anode or metal anode is used to provide high capacity; electrolytes, which introduce solid or gelatinous electrolytes to address compatibility issues; Electrode design, ultra-thick electrode design and artificial pore making process to increase the proportion of active substances and optimize ion conduction.
Xu Fei, general manager of Polyfluoride New Energy Technology Co., Ltd
From the perspective of the logic of the whole cost, Xu Fei, general manager of Polyfluorine New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., compared sodium batteries and lithium batteries with 60130 all-tab and large cylindrical batteries, and the result was that basically all the materials of sodium batteries, the average cost to watt-hour is higher than that of lithium batteries.
In this regard, Xu Fei introduced that Polyfluoride is the first enterprise to develop sodium electricity through the three-chain integration layout, that is, through the innovation of materials, the performance of the battery system is realized, and the development of the sodium electricity industry is realized through the coordination of the upstream and downstream industrial chains. "We now have our own pilot line for cathode and anode, and the industry is the first to industrialize the 1,000-ton NaPF6 production line, and we hope to cooperate and communicate with our peers to achieve vertical integration of the entire industrial chain, which should be the logic of lead-acid to do this."
Conclusion: After drinking ice for several years, it is difficult to cool the blood. The sodium battery sprouted at almost the same time as the lithium battery has been running on the new energy track for 30 years, although the challenges and controversies continue, but the hope and opportunities are the same: the industrialization road is long and the scale has been poised to develop!
Based on the views of the above-mentioned speakers and representatives from all walks of life, although the development of sodium batteries has cooled down, with the continuous increase of policies and standards, the continuous development of enterprise layout and strategic capital, the increasing maturity of core technologies and the perfection of the industrial chain, the gradual emergence of cost advantages and scale effects, and the effective expansion of downstream application markets and new scenarios, the growth potential and development opportunities of the sodium battery industry will also be released one after another.