Wheat has just risen and fallen, and corn, Shandong and North China were falling endlessly, and suddenly there was a sudden brake, and the stock market was red - people rose again.
It's a good thing that corn has risen, but the market's expectations for the subsequent corn market are even worse.
Why?
On the one hand, corn has been fluctuating for a long time, and it is common to rise and fall; On the other hand, there is a characteristic of corn in Shandong and North China, which everyone knows, that is, "watching the dishes under the car".
Recently, the amount of corn has dropped sharply, and the number of trucks in front of the deep processing door has dropped to below 200, so it is not surprising that corn has risen.
However, there is a problem, that is, this wave of reduction is not due to the shortage of grain at a high price, but more due to the influence of the weather.
After entering July, the focus of the corn market is not supply and demand, nor policy, nor purchase and sales, but the weather.
Because since July, the weather has been really changeable.
In addition to entering the traditional flood season, extreme weather has been frequent recently, especially heavy rain and torrential rain, which are often unpredictable and very random.
This is really in response to the sentence "there are unforeseen circumstances in the sky".
There are mainly two rainfalls affecting the corn market, one is the heavy rain in Henan and the other is the heavy rain in Shandong, and both of these places point to the Huanghuai region of North China, so the corn in this region has fluctuated frequently in recent days.
What's even more troubling is that not only wheat has rain-soaked wheat, but also corn.
Can such a market not be chaotic?
First, affected by the weather, some poorly stored corn will inevitably be shipped in a hurry.
It's very similar to wheat.
As long as this amount rises, it will definitely disrupt the rhythm of the corn market again.
Second, according to the previous law, after the rain and sunny weather, the amount of corn will most likely increase sharply.
Although everyone knows this law, there is no way, few people have that mentality to stand up, especially when there is chaos, the willingness to pay will increase significantly.
Third, as long as the volume increases, enterprises will inevitably reduce prices again.
Although the performance of deep processing this year is good, and the start-up rate has not been low, after two years of exercise, it is also a veteran of price reduction.
Especially in this weak market, buyers are more dominant.
And if according to this law, the more corn runs in the early stage, the less food can be supplied in the later stage, then the higher the expectation of corn rise, but why is the expectation declining?
This is because the main body of grain holders who have been tortured by the market do not dare to have much hope for the follow-up market.
Although the determination of the policy to support the city remains steady, the weather is unpredictable.
Moreover, a variety of experiences in the early stage have shown that all kinds of expectations are often bamboo baskets to draw water in the end, and they will be in the soup in the end.
Therefore, in this way, the spirit of the main body of grain is not so high, and the mentality of receiving it when it is good and leaving when it is good begins to increase.
Therefore, as long as the price rises slightly, the amount will increase, which leads to the rise and fall of corn and the continuous supply.
Although the probability of a sharp fall is not high, the probability of a sharp rise is also not high.
Or in fact, the market has changed a long time ago, what has not changed is the mentality, many people's mentality is still stuck in the era of high food prices in the first two years, so the market is still the same market, and what needs to be adjusted is the mentality.
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