NIO Firefly (internal codename) was exposed to new spy photos again. With less than one year to be delivered, the information about the first model of NIO's new sub-brand is becoming clearer. Boutique cars, battery swaps, and the possibility of approaching the minimum car purchase threshold of 100,000 yuan have become the core product points of NIO Firefly. So combined with the above points, is it possible that with the battery swap technology, the NIO Firefly is reducing the price of the vehicle by reducing the battery life?
It is speculated that with a 60-degree blade battery, the range is 500km?
Theoretically, there is a battery swap technology, and in the face of endurance anxiety, the battery capacity can also be reduced. However, the battery swap technology itself also requires compatibility. At present, it is relatively clear that the NIO Firefly will be able to adapt to the NIO fourth-generation battery swap station. At this stage, looking at all models of NIO and its sub-brands, the smallest battery pack capacity is about 60kWh of the Ledao L60. As a size reference, the BYD Dolphin, which is also a compact car, has a battery capacity of about 60 kWh in the longest-range version. Moreover, these two battery divisions are from the same family, both from BYD's lithium iron phosphate batteries.
However, the battery capacity of 60kWh is likely to be the upper limit of the battery that the NIO Firefly can carry. In terms of brand tonality, Firefly and Weilai are in the same line, and the former is fundamentally different from the Ledao brand in terms of positioning. The downward product line of the burden brand, borrowing from the model design of NIO, such as the NIO ET5, has always maintained a body length of 4.7 meters. From a European point of view, this falls into the absolute standard wheelbase midsize range. That said, the NIO Firefly is unlikely to be a product that emphasizes body size. Of course, judging from the spy photos, the wheelbase of the NIO Firefly is also extremely exaggerated. This is similar to the design of products such as the BYD Dolphin and Volkswagen ID.3. Therefore, plugging a 60-degree lithium iron phosphate battery should not be a big problem.
Another suspense lies in the fact that Ledao L60 can be adapted to NIO's third-generation battery swap station on the basis of upgrading. And the caliber of NIO Firefly's expression so far is still only compatible with NIO's fourth-generation battery swap station. If both cars have the same 60kWh battery pack, then this compatibility gap is a bit awkward. But it is not unexplained, such as the requirements of the third generation of battery swap stations for body size. After all, the size of Ledao L60 can be found in the NIO product system, but the NIO Firefly is obviously not. Therefore, from the perspective of compatibility, it can only be said that it is doubtful.
Then we take 60kWh, the battery capacity ceiling under the tentative deduction. The cruising range of the NIO Firefly is likely to reach the threshold of 500km (CLTC working condition). The BYD Dolphin and the Volkswagen ID.3, which are close in price and positioning, are speculated here. First of all, the BYD Dolphin has a range of 520km (CLTC mode) with the blessing of a 60-degree battery pack, while the Volkswagen ID.3 has a range of 450km (CLTC mode) on the basis of a 52.8-degree ternary lithium battery.
Combined with the spy photos of the NIO Firefly, the design is similar to that of an SUV, or a bit similar to the design language of the original BMW i3. and 18-inch wheels, and a 215 tire width. In addition, the new car comes from the NT3.0 platform, and it is positioned as a competing car, and the charging port of the spy photo is also on the rear side of the vehicle, so the rear drive is a high probability event. If the impact of the high-voltage platform on efficiency is not considered, the NIO Firefly's range may be slightly lower than the BYD Dolphin's performance of up to 520km with the possibility of more horsepower rear-wheel drive, wider tires, and design differences.
The battery is not small, and it costs 45,000 yuan less to choose to rent electricity?
As for why the impact of the high-voltage platform is not considered, it is because of the working conditions of small cars like NIO Firefly, as well as the battery capacity, the input-output ratio of 800V is not high. Combined with the NIO NT3.0 platform, the performance in chassis structure, three-electric system, intelligence and other aspects. If you want to get the price as close to the 100,000 yuan threshold as possible, giving priority to cutting 800V may be the most likely choice. In fact, the smart elf #1, which was launched earlier, also thinks the same way. And in terms of intelligent driving, judging from the information exposed, the NIO Firefly will be equipped with the Horizon Journey 5 chip with a computing power of 128Tops. Whether it is with NIO's four NVIDIA OrinX solutions or Ledao L60's single NVIDIA OrinX solutions, there is a big gap in computing power.
But even if NIO Firefly has made concessions in 800V and intelligence, it is unrealistic to force the price to the threshold of 100,000 yuan while maintaining the positioning of boutique cars in terms of chassis, performance and configuration. Even the BYD Dolphin, which uses a 60-degree battery, can't do it. Reducing the battery capacity is indeed an idea, but for NIO's Firefly, the price of selling a car can be more completely separated from the battery, which is NIO's BaaS power rental service.
Assuming that the cost of the battery is deducted, how much can a NIO Firefly potentially save on one-time car purchase costs? Taking the smallest capacity at this stage, that is, a 75kWh battery pack, as an example, if you choose the BaaS model, the purchase price of the car can be reduced by 70,000 yuan. Then the buyout cost per kilowatt-hour is about 933 yuan. Combined with the fact that NIO Firefly may all be purchased from BYD's lithium iron phosphate batteries, the buyout cost of the new car per kilowatt-hour may be 750 yuan based on the price difference of 20%. Referring to the above, the maximum battery capacity of the NIO Firefly should be less than or equal to 60kWh, and the cost of the whole battery may be about 45,000 yuan.
If the BaaS model is adopted, the cost of the initial car purchase can be reduced to a level that can approach 100,000 yuan. Then it also means that the actual price of the NIO Firefly is about 15-200,000 yuan. Whether it is referring to NIO's most entry-level mid-size car NIO ET5 at this stage, or comparing it side-by-side with the smart Elf #1 and electric MINI COOPER that have been launched. The price positioning of new cars is relatively reasonable and competitive in the market. AFTER ALL, THE BATTERY CAPACITY OF THE ELECTRIC MINI COOPER IS ONLY 51.5 DEGREES, AND THE PRICE THRESHOLD HAS EXCEEDED 180,000 YUAN. The smart elf #1, which is responsible for driving down the price, even has a lithium iron phosphate battery that only has 49 kWh. Not to mention the difference in the competitiveness of the core technology of NIO, the battery swap technology.
From battery life to price, the analysis of the core product strength of NIO Firefly is actually inseparable from the technical moat of battery swapping. It is precisely because of the existence of battery swapping technology that new cars can gain more technology and flexibility to cater to the market in terms of single battery life, as well as the control and selection of car purchase costs. The BaaS model is a big killer move born out of the battery swap model, which actually reduces the pressure of users to buy cars on the basis of not involving price wars. Especially in the car market with a lower price threshold, the lethality of this model will be more obvious.