plummeted by 650 billion, and the aura of Arowana collapsed

Sharp eyes on finance

2024-07-10 17:24Posted on the official account of Beijing Ruiyan Finance

The tanker truck loaded with chemical oil is also loaded with edible oil, isn't this poisoning in disguise?

Such a thing that breaks through the limits of normal people's imagination really happened.

Arowana, fryer

After the coal-to-oil tanker shipment of edible oil intensified, Luhua, Arowana and other giants have issued statements, saying that the transportation of edible oil is strictly supervised and strictly implemented.

However, Arowana's statement obviously did not dispel doubts, and gave people a feeling of "getting darker and darker".

A Blogger named Gao Jianli posted a message saying that he found the trajectory of the oil tanker "Ji E5476W" exposed by the Beijing News on the open source website, and found that he had sent oil to the Arowana factory.

The specific locations are the Arowana factory on Xianxing Road in Xianyang City, Shaanxi Province, and Yihai Kerry Grain and Oil Industry Co., Ltd. in Donghu District, Wuhan City, Hubei Province.

Here is a little science popularization, Arowana, Oliveira, Orchid and other well-known brands are all owned by Yihai Kerry.

What's even more surprising is that Arowana is also producing pre-made dishes next to mixed tanker trucks, is this locally sourced?

Regarding the trajectory of the tanker, Arowana said that the car in the Wuhan factory was in a new state when it was shipped, and the tanker in the Shaanxi factory was also operated in accordance with the requirements of the relevant system before shipment, and the product quality met the national requirements, and the company fully fulfilled its regulatory responsibilities.

Early in the morning of July 10, Arowana told the media that all enterprises under the group have fulfilled their regulatory responsibilities in the safe transportation of bulk edible oil, and have strictly implemented the requirements for special qualifications for transport vehicles, pre-loading, tank cleaning, and tank inspection.

Arowana's attitude is already obvious: there is nothing wrong with our company!

However, this obviously did not convince everyone, and the call for sampling of Arowana edible oil was widely supported.

plummeted, evaporating 650 billion

As the situation continued to ferment, Arowana's share price was also severely impacted, plummeting more than 8% as soon as the market opened on July 10, and then was pulled up by the disk protection funds, closing down 4.41%.

Today, Arowana released a huge trading volume of 467 million, several times that of usual, and the stock price also hit a record low.

In fact, since late May, Arowana's share price has shown a unilateral decline, and according to today's lowest stock price, it has fallen by more than 23% in just over a month.

In the past month or so, Arowana has been in a state of decline, and after today's "tanker incident" fermented, it is a plummeting volume.

Arowana was listed in October 2020, and there were two rounds of skyrocketing at the beginning of the listing, and the stock price once soared to more than 145 yuan.

Today's lowest price is 25 yuan, down a full 120 yuan, a drop of 83%, and the market value has evaporated as much as 650 billion yuan.

Even after falling so much, Arowana's price-to-earnings ratio is still as high as 40 times. A grain and oil company with a very low gross profit margin, but enjoys the same valuation as an Internet high-tech company, and there is still room for squeezing bubbles.

According to the data, from 2008 to 2013, the compound growth rate of China's edible oil market was 12.94%, and from 2013 to 2022, it decreased to 2.44%.

As the total population begins to peak and decline, the edible oil market will inevitably become more and more saturated, and it will also face overcapacity.

The peak saturation of the industry, as well as the change in the cost of raw materials, make the net profit and gross profit margin of Arowana lower and lower.

From 2020 to 2023, the company's gross profit margin will be 11.01%, 8.18%, 5.68% and 4.83% respectively, while the company's net profit margin will be 3.37%, 1.98%, 1.21% and 1.11% respectively in the same period.

In 2023, Arowana's revenue will be 251.524 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.32%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.848 billion yuan, down 5.43% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-profits was 1.321 billion yuan, down 58.5% year-on-year.

In the first quarter of 2024, Arowana's revenue was 57.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of -6.17%, and its net profit was 882 million yuan, a slight increase of 3.3% year-on-year.

Although the decline in net profit has been stopped, the share price of Arowana has still fallen, with a decline of more than 9% in a single quarter in the first and second quarters of this year.

The capital market is collectively abandoning Arowana.

The myth of Lin Yuan was shattered, and there were still funds to increase their positions

At the beginning of Arowana's listing, it coincided with the most prosperous period for consumer stocks led by liquor. At that time, Haitian Flavor once rushed to a market value of nearly 700 billion yuan, Kweichow Moutai had a market value of more than 3 trillion yuan, and Wuliangye had a market value of more than 1.3 trillion yuan.

Coupled with the hype of the public and private placements at that time, the stock price of Arowana reached its peak three months after listing, and its market value approached 800 billion yuan in one fell swoop.

At that time, the most famous person who speculated on Arowana was none other than Lin Yuan, the "Chinese stock god".

Lin Yuan made a lot of money on Kweichow Moutai and became famous, and there were many fans who followed him.

However, from the current point of view, the most ruined forest garden is also the Arowana.

Some people estimate that the cost of Lin Yuan to buy Arowana is about 90 yuan, and now the stock price of 25 yuan is about to be cut in half and cut in half.

Perhaps it was the success of investing in Kweichow Moutai that made Lin Yuan develop path dependence, and he always emphasized that he should invest in companies related to his mouth.

However, in recent years, consumer stocks have become the hardest hit area, and Lin Yuan's products have also suffered heavy losses, and the net value of many products has been lower than 0.5, reaching the level of halving. In addition, Lin Yuan's investment in No. 187, No. 194, No. 185, No. 303, No. 305 and other products is also close to halving.

With the plunge of the Arowana, Lin Yuan didn't mention much of his former heart. Rumors about his withdrawal from Arowana are also endless, and it is difficult to distinguish between truth and falsehood.

In fact, no matter what Lin Yuan is, the stock price trend of Arowana is the result of the general environment + reasonable factors in the market, and it is not something that can be decided by a single so-called stock market boss.

The celebrity effect can often attract many retail investors to follow suit, but retail investors are also very easy to become leeks to be harvested.

Since the peak of Arowana's share price, almost all participants have lost money in the three-and-a-half-year-long unilateral downward trend, which is also the inevitable price after the stock is speculated.

Arowana's fundamentals will not improve significantly, and the stock price will be even worse after the tanker transportation incident heats up. You can refer to the trend of Haitian Flavor Industry after the additive crisis from September to October 2022.

Arowana is getting worse and worse, but there are still funds that are not willing to give up and are increasing their positions significantly. In the first quarter of this year, E Fund ChiNext Index Fund increased its position by 2.78 million shares, and Huatai Pinebridge CSI 300 Index Fund increased its position by 1.98 million shares.

While these funds can be used as "passive" rather than "actively managed" to justify their significant exposure to Arowana, the stock price movement has proven to be a failed investment.

If there is any potential downside to Arowana, it is that 90% of the shares are non-tradable, and the ban will be lifted soon.

On October 16 this year, the company was listed for three years and the ban on up to 4.879 billion restricted shares was lifted, which will form a great "lifting flood", and it may have a serious impact on the stock price at that time.

Arowana has pit a large number of investors in the capital market, and now it is deeply involved in the "tanker door" incident, which has aroused strong dissatisfaction and doubts among consumers.

Arowana stock, Arowana products, is stinging more Chinese.

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Personal opinion, for reference only