On the basis of practical cooperation with Afghanistan, countries in the region can further build consensus and create more favorable external conditions for Afghanistan, but the initiative is fundamental
Since August 2021, when the political situation in Afghanistan took a major turn, the interim government led by the Afghan Taliban (hereinafter referred to as Atta) has not been recognized by any country in the world, and Atta still faces various international and unilateral sanctions, and is even listed as a "terrorist organization" by some countries. However, compared with the period when he first came to power in the 90s of the 20th century, Atta is more open and positive to the outside world, realizing that the new regime cannot isolate itself from the outside world, either diplomatically or economically. How can Afghanistan rally support and integrate into the world? At present, the economic development project has become a "useful card" in the hands of the Atta interim government.
Launched a number of projects with international impact
In the nearly three years since taking power, the Atta interim government has promoted economic construction and launched a number of projects with international impact in many fields.
Promote the Ukrainian-Aba-Bahn Railway. In July 2023, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan signed a project protocol, planning to build a north-south railway line across Afghanistan, starting from Mazar-e-Sharif, an important town in northwest Afghanistan, through Rogar and other provinces in central Afghanistan, to the Haraki port on the border of Afghanistan and Pakistan, after completion, the Termez port of Uzbekistan and the Pakistan railway network can be connected, forming a railway passage from Central Asia to the Arabian Sea, the project is expected to build 573 kilometers of new railways, with a cost of more than 5 billion US dollars. In February 2024, Ukraine and Afghanistan signed a memorandum of understanding to launch a feasibility study for the project, and proposed to involve Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.
It is planned to invest in the Iranian port of Chabahar. In March 2024, Iran's ambassador to Afghanistan Qazemi announced that the Arab side would invest $35 million in the port of Chabahar to develop commercial, residential, office and other projects. Previously, in July 2023, the railway from Rozanak in Herat, western Afghanistan, to Haf, Reza, Khorasan, Iran, resumed operations. Recently, the Afghan Railways Authority started construction on an extension line that plans to extend the railway to a multimodal transport hub around Herat airport. The construction of the railway will lay the foundation for Herat's connection to the port of Chabahar.
Resumption of cross-border pipeline construction. In February 2024, the World Bank announced the resumption of construction and financing of the Afghanistan section of the Central Asia-South Asia Power Transmission and Trade Project (CASA-1000). In March 2024, representatives of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan and Pakistan held a joint working group meeting to reach an agreement on the resumption of the CASA-1000 project. In addition, the Interim Government of Atta announced the start of the construction of the Afghan section of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India Gas Pipeline (TAPI).
Construction of the Kush Tipa aqueduct. The Amu Darya River flows into the Aral Sea through Tajikistan, Afghanistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, and is the largest river in Central Asia by volume. The Kush Tipa Canal, which began construction in March 2022, is planned to draw water from the Amu Darya River from Balkh province to Faryab province via Jazjan province and will irrigate 550,000 hectares of land in northern Afghanistan and divert nearly a third of the water in the Amu Darya River by some experts. In October 2023, the construction of 108 kilometers of the first phase of the canal project will be completed, and the second and third phases of the project will be completed within five years.
Refurbishment of the Wakhan Corridor Road. In January 2024, Badakhshan province announced that it had built a road along the Wakhan corridor to the China-Arab border, and that asphalt would be laid to further improve access conditions.
Attract foreign investors to develop mineral resources. The Atta Provisional Government has encouraged foreign businessmen to enter the domestic oil, metal and other mineral development fields, and has signed a series of large-scale contracts.
The political significance behind it is even more prominent
The Atta interim government promoted a series of economic development projects to secure external support for the new regime in many ways. Most directly, the introduction of foreign capital, equipment and technology from these projects will drive economic development, create jobs, and improve people's livelihoods, which will help the new regime consolidate its foundation. But compared to its scale, construction schedule and economic benefits, the political significance of the project is obviously more prominent.
First of all, reshape the international image. Through the construction of large-scale development projects, it will demonstrate the renewal of Atta's concept of governance and the improvement of its capabilities, change the inherent impression and negative perception of Atta by the outside world, and shape the image of the Atta interim government as an "effective government", and then guide the outside world to gradually change its perception from "effective government" to "legitimate government".
Second, blend in with the surrounding area. Unlike the United States and the West, which blindly accuse the Atta interim government of "lack of inclusiveness" and "ignoring human rights", regional countries advocate guiding Afghanistan to reintegrate into the international community through practical engagement. At this stage, Atta lacks the will to meet the conditions put forward by the United States and the West in terms of political tolerance and social tolerance, and has almost cut off the possibility of the United States and Western countries recognizing his interim government. Therefore, it is clear that Atta will focus on seeking diplomatic recognition among regional countries, using its geographical position to promote a series of development projects involving neighboring countries, promoting bilateral and multilateral exchanges, and avoiding being completely isolated from the international community.
Third, strengthen the international presence. Taking advantage of the needs of low-political economic development projects, the Atta Interim Government has frequently sent delegations to foreign exchanges and signed cooperation documents with foreign governments and enterprises, thus fulfilling government functions and improving external acceptance of Atta's international presence. In particular, the signing of legally binding documents with foreign parties or the fact that the Atta Interim Government has become a participant in multilateral cooperation will objectively help it to occupy the status of a legitimate government. For example, in the face of the rapid progress in the construction of the Kush Tipa aqueduct, Uzbekistan has proposed that Amu be included in the existing Amu Darya water distribution mechanism among the Central Asian countries.
Finally, mobilize geopolitical relations. Although the Atta interim government welcomes the pragmatic policies of regional countries toward Afghanistan, it is also reluctant to become the target of joint pressure from regional countries. Moreover, Afghanistan is located at the "crossroads" of East and West Asia and Central Asia and South Asia, and has a unique geographical position and has been subject to repeated external intervention in the past. The Atta interim government has simultaneously promoted connectivity projects in different directions and introduced multi-party investment, in fact, it also has the intention of mobilizing the strategic competition and cooperation of relevant countries and balancing the geopolitical combination of multiple pairs. In this way, not only does it strategically avoid the risk of "putting all your eggs in one basket", but it also opens up room for flexible maneuver in terms of strategy.
The water must be completed
The Atta Provisional Government has used economic development projects to greatly improve the external environment, break the situation of absolute isolation, and open a breakthrough from neighboring countries, but it is clear that it has not yet succeeded in breaking through. Because economy is a good card, but it's not a panacea.
It is difficult to gather consensus. Since the development of the changes in Afghanistan in August 2021, regional countries have basically agreed that the recognition and acceptance of the Atta interim government should be based on regional consensus, but there is no consensus on how this consensus is formed and what its main contents include. In other words, the countries of the region are not ready to recognize and accept the Atta interim government, which will require a process of continuous interaction between multiple parties.
Difficult to solve concerns. Although countries in the region have adopted a pragmatic policy toward Afghanistan, it does not mean that they have no concern about Atta's administration. At this stage, security concerns are the most prominent. Countries in the region do not want Afghanistan to become a "safe haven" for international terrorism again, and hope that Atta will earnestly fulfill its counter-terrorism commitments and take more effective measures to crack down on terrorist organizations in Afghanistan, especially cross-border terrorist forces. In fact, cross-border counter-terrorism issues have caused serious tensions in Afghan and Pakistani relations. In addition, although regional countries are willing to help Afghanistan's political and economic reconstruction through economic cooperation, they also expect the Atta interim government to respond more forcefully in building an open and inclusive political structure and pursuing moderate and prudent domestic and foreign policies.
Difficult to reconcile interests. These economic development projects involve complex interests and do not necessarily improve Afghanistan's relations with its neighbors. For example, the development of cross-border water resources has not only raised concerns among neighboring basin countries, but also cast a new shadow on the relationship between Afghanistan and its neighbors. For example, due to concerns about border control, relevant neighboring countries also have specific considerations for the construction of cross-border communication lines. Another example is that in long-term projects such as mineral development and industrial park construction, many foreign businessmen still have a wait-and-see attitude towards the political and economic macro situation and the implementation of specific policies in Afghanistan.
As Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi noted, "I believe that as the concerns of all parties are more forcefully addressed, diplomatic recognition of the Afghan government will be a matter of course." On the basis of practical cooperation with Afghanistan, regional countries can further build consensus and create more favorable external conditions for Afghanistan, but the more powerful initiative of the Atta interim government is the fundamental one.
Source: "China Institute of Contemporary International Relations" WeChat public account
Author: Lin Yiming
Editor: Hu Liang
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