This morning, in "Important Highlights of A-shares Next Week: The Two Ministries and Commissions Promise to Amplify the Positive in the Near Future!" 3 plates will lead the counterattack! In the article, Jing Yang talked about the main opportunities and risks of the A-share market next week. According to Jingyang's analysis, after the gold needle of the market bottomed out on Friday, the decline of the market may slow down next week, and there is a possibility of the bottom of the current regional construction stage. However, despite this, the pattern of electric fans in the entire market may not improve, and the persistence of hot spots is generally poor.
However, even if it is the electric fan market, there will still be some relatively flexible directions, among which the mid-report performance wave that is about to enter the climax is worth keeping a high level of attention!
In fact, at the end of last week, Jingyang had already talked to everyone about the performance wave of the interim report, and told everyone how to judge the performance of the reported performance in advance through the quarterly report of the listed company? In this way, we can lurk in advance before a company discloses its earnings report! After the financial report is good, look for an opportunity to sell high!
Although this method can find some stocks that have already seen a sharp rise in quarterly results, such as semiconductors, CPO and electricity, these stocks will continue to grow high in the interim report. However, there are still some high-performance stocks that cannot be found in advance through this method. This kind of company is a company whose performance was flat in the first quarter of this year, but in the second quarter, the performance was accelerated!
So in this article, Jingyang will change the angle and help you sort out which listed companies in this sector will be more prominent in this year's interim report!
First of all, let's be clear, what is high performance? In Jingyang's view, the performance growth rate of less than 30% is considered low growth; The performance growth rate between 30% and 100% is not low; A growth rate of more than 100% can be regarded as high-speed growth! Judging from this ratio, which sectors will have a higher performance growth rate in the middle of this year?
We might as well do an elimination method, the vast majority of consumer, defensive, recession and overcapacity industry sectors, this year's interim performance growth rate may not be too high, which can exclude a large part of individual stocks, such as: liquor, medicine, catering and retail, scenic spots, tourism, real estate, banking, insurance, securities, logistics, textiles and clothing, lithium batteries, photovoltaics, wind power, etc.
In addition, there are many technology stocks, which seem to be dressed in a halo of high growth, but in fact the performance is not good, such stocks not only will not increase in performance, but also easy to let everyone step on thunder in the interim reporting period, such as: software, cloud computing, digital currency, mobile payment, and other information and innovation themes that have attracted high market attention in previous years. This is not the easiest for everyone to step on the thunder, even in the past two years of rapid outbreak of AI artificial intelligence, many large models and application companies, the performance has not broken out because of the high growth of the industry, most of them are in a state of loss or meager profits! For example, iFLYTEK, the global leader in intelligent voice, which disclosed its financial report this weekend, even lost 380 million in its interim results!
There are still many science and technology companies that are still in the infancy stage, or have not yet been commercialized on a large scale, and the medium-term performance will not be too good, such as quantum communication, nuclear fusion, hydrogen energy, humanoid robots, and even this year's hot flying cars and commercial aerospace, the performance will not be released quickly.
After excluding these industry sectors, what are the directions that can be expected to report results this year?
Jingyang gives you two lines: first, the hardware industry related to AI computing power; Second, there are strong cyclical industries with price increase expectations! At present, most of the performance of these two major industry sectors will not be bad this year!
Jing Yang first talked about the first category, that is, the hardware industry related to AI computing power. Why is the certainty of the performance explosion of AI computing hardware high, but the performance of large model and application companies has not kept up? This is actually easier to understand, just look at Nvidia abroad, shovel sellers are often the first to get rich!
Among the hardware related to AI computing power, the most familiar is CPO, which has begun to enter the high-speed growth channel last year and will continue to grow at a high speed this year. Jingyang takes the sector leader Zhongji InnoLight as an example to talk to you about the performance growth curve. Zhongji Innolight had a net profit of 250 million in the first quarter of last year, a net profit of 614 million in the middle of last year, and a net profit of 2.174 billion in the whole year last year. In the first quarter of this year, the company's net profit has exceeded 100 million, four times that of the first quarter of last year, which is much higher than last year's interim report. In the context of the still high demand for AI computing power, Zhongji InnoLight will not earn less in the second quarter of this year than in the first quarter, so the net profit in the second quarter will most likely exceed 2 billion, which is more than 3 times that of last year's interim report, reaching the level of last year. Together with Zhongji Innolight, the new Yisheng and Tianfu Communications, known as the CPO "Yi Zhongtian", are also in a similar situation.
It can be seen that the net profit of high-quality listed companies in the CPO sector will not be too bad in the middle of this year, but the problem of this sector is also more obvious, that is, the cumulative increase in the past one or two years is too large, and to a certain extent, it will overdraft the high growth of performance!
In addition to CPO, the most concerned AI computing hardware this year is undoubtedly the semiconductor industry chain! This is because AI consumer electronics have begun to see a large-scale wave of replacement, and the sales of AI mobile phones and AIPC have begun to gradually accelerate.
Friends who have been paying attention to Jingyang should know that in the semiconductor industry chain that Jingyang has been tracking during this time, memory chips, PCBs and advanced packaging are all beneficiary branches under the explosion of AI computing power, and most of the medium-term results of related stocks will not be bad. In this morning's article, Jingyang has already mentioned BIWIN Storage, Weir and Montage Technology, and the reported performance has increased by several times, and the growth rate is not lower than that of CPO! And this weekend, South Korean semiconductor giant Samsung also released an interim report, with a performance surge of 1400%, exceeding market expectations!
The advantage of semiconductors over CPO is that the performance has just begun to be released, and the cumulative increase in stock prices in the medium term is not large, so the elasticity in the future is estimated to be greater!
Along this line, you can search for semiconductor memory chips, PCBs and advanced packaging that have not yet been disclosed.
Some people may say that the high performance of semiconductors is already a bright card, so are there any sectors with high medium-term performance, but the market has not yet explored? Of course there are! That's the price increase phalanx!
Since the beginning of this year, due to the impact of geopolitical conflicts, the prices of many resource products have soared sharply in the second quarter. The performance of resource listed companies is only positively correlated with resource price fluctuations, so we can also follow this line to find some industry sectors that have not been released in the first quarter, but the performance in the second quarter will be high, such as nonferrous metals, chemicals, port shipping, etc.!
In terms of non-ferrous metals, the strongest performers are precious metals and industrial metals lead, zinc, and tin. Judging from the price trend of related futures, most of them began to raise prices sharply at the end of March this year. That is to say, metal prices in the first quarter of this year are still relatively low, so the performance of non-ferrous metals in the first quarter has not been released. Although metal prices did not continue to rise in May and June after the sharp rise in March and April, they did not weaken either. During this time, most metal prices are fluctuating at high levels, and high prices will bring a positive boost to the performance of relevant listed companies!
And the non-ferrous metal synchronous fluctuation is the chemical industry, some chemicals price increase time is earlier by non-ferrous metals, such as titanium dioxide, and some price increases are later than non-ferrous metals, but generally at the same time, so there are many companies in the chemical products will not be bad in the medium term. Typical examples such as Qixiang Tengda and Luxi Chemical, the medium-term net profit growth rate has exceeded 5 times!
In the price increase phalanx, I have to say that port shipping, this year's international freight rate has risen by more than 300%, and it has also begun to increase prices after March this year. Therefore, the performance of port and shipping companies in the first quarter of this year has not been released, but the interim results may not be bad!
As for vitamins that have skyrocketed in price in the past month, perhaps the interim results will not be reflected, but the performance of the third quarter and annual report should not be bad.
If it is said that non-ferrous metals, chemicals, port shipping, the interim results will benefit from the price increase and high growth. Then the power sector will benefit from the dual expectations of thermal coal price reduction and market-based electricity prices, which will continue to grow at a high rate. The only difference is that the performance of thermal power companies has begun to increase in the first quarter, rather than the second quarter.
Jingyang roughly sorted out the industry sectors with high performance in this year's interim report and everyone, and finally made a small summary:
Among the growth industries of science and technology, CPO, liquid-cooled servers, and semiconductors performed the most in the interim report this year; Among the cyclical industries of price increases, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, port shipping and power are the most eye-catching!