This week, the A-share market hit a new low again! I don't know when it started, even 3,000 points in A shares have become a luxury, and now we have begun to fight a battle to defend 2,900 points! This week, the market rose 2 and fell 3 times, and the first two days obviously felt the lack of strength when hitting the key pressure level of the 20-day line, which laid the groundwork for the pullback in the next three days. Although Jingyang also knows that the 20-day line will not be easily overcome, it is also surprising that the market easily hit a new low when it was adjusted!
Fortunately, on Friday afternoon, the market climbed up from the ghost gate again, and after the golden needle bottomed out, it finally closed above the stage low on June 26! At the same time, the market also deviated downward from the 5-day line to leave an oversold gap, which left hope that the market may continue to reverse next week!
Although the strength of the market rally on the last day was quite good, to be honest, the most troublesome problem of the entire market right now has not been solved because of this! After the short-term trend of the semiconductor industry chain has ended, the A-share market has fallen into an embarrassing situation of no main line hot spot in the past two weeks. Not only will the direction of the rally be switched every day, and a day trip will be staged repeatedly, but more importantly, Jingyang has not found any sector by the close of trading on Friday, and it is possible to become the main line of the market in the next stage!
From this, Jingyang can generally judge that the A-share market may not fall too much next week, and there is even the possibility of a double bottom in the construction stage. However, the electric fan market may still continue, and the money-making effect of the market is still not good!
Previously, Jingyang and everyone have emphasized many times that there are two kinds of markets in the A-share market that are the most difficult to make money, one is the unilateral decline market, in which making up for the decline is the biggest risk; The other is the electric fan market, there is no main line hot spots, and all hot spots are not sustainable, so people can't find the direction.
So how should we deal with the electric fan market? In Jingyang's view, the most important thing to pay attention to in the electric fan market is not to chase high. Try to pull back near the key support level in some active hot spots, and step on the rhythm to buy low. After entering the market, you also need to lower your expectations and accept it when you see it, so that it is possible to survive in the electric fan market.
Since this is the case, we need to find the short-term hot spots that are relatively active next week when there is no main line hot spot in the market, which may be difficult to continue to rise throughout the week, but if there is a downward rebound, the elasticity is still not small! After integrating market news, capital, fundamentals and technology, Jingyang believes that next week's data elements, Internet of Vehicles and high-growth stocks in the short-term elasticity are the largest!
1. Data elements: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will study and formulate policies for the development of data element industries, and the 12 trillion yuan industry will be good!
According to the estimation of authoritative institutions, the added value of the core industries of the mainland's digital economy was estimated to exceed 12 trillion yuan last year, accounting for about 10% of GDP. There are two main reasons: first, data elements are an important branch of the big theme of information innovation, but the high heat period of information innovation in the previous years, the last year or two artificial intelligence, flying cars, robots and other new quality productivity is too hot, the big data and cloud computing and other old industries can not turn over; Second, in the A-share market, most of the listed companies in related sectors such as data elements and data rights confirmation are not of high quality, so it is difficult to stimulate large funds to sweep goods on a large scale!
So why is the elasticity of the data element sector relatively greater next week? This is because the industry is extremely positive this week, and there are already institutional funds in the sector that are low-key fundraising. In addition, there is no main hot spot in the market itself in the near future, which gives the data elements room for short-term speculation!
Let's talk about the news first, this week the 2024 Global Digital Economy Conference opened at the National Convention Center. At the meeting, the National Data Administration and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have made important statements, and are accelerating the research and formulation of policy documents on the development and utilization of data resources, and some policies will be introduced soon! Since the official has made verbal guarantees, we have reason to believe that it will not be long before the heavyweight policy benefits of the data element sector will land! So before the good landing, now the whole sector has hype expectations, and when the good landing, the plate hype space will disappear.
From the perspective of capital, according to Jingyang's observation statistics, on June 26, that is, the beginning of last Wednesday's new low, data elements gradually entered the attention of major institutions. From last Wednesday to this Friday, more than 4 companies in the sector were heavily bought by major institutions. This past week, the main latent direction of the main institutions. Although the entry of institutions is not too large, in the current market, the main institutions have maintained unilateral positions in data elements without reducing positions, which brings the possibility of short-term changes in the entire sector next week!
From the perspective of plate trends, the data elements are stable in the downward triangle pattern in the medium term, and are currently near the bottom of the platform, and have tested the bottom of the stage many times in a row, but have not fallen through. If the market stabilizes next week, the sector may break through the moving average harness and change upward!
2. Interim report: The market is about to kick off, and the hype of high-growth stocks and sectors is at the right time!
In last weekend's article, Jing Yang had already mentioned that the mid-report market was about to begin. Last week, the Shanghai Stock Exchange disclosed the scheduled disclosure schedule for the interim report, the Shanghai Stock Exchange began to release the semi-annual report on July 17, and the Science and Technology Innovation Board began to release the semi-annual report on July 25.
Although there is still a period of time before the semi-annual report of listed companies discloses, the interim report forecast has begun to enter an intensive release period! According to Jingyang Observation statistics, as of this week, more than 100 companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen have issued interim reports, compared with only 33 at the end of last week! It is worth noting that, according to the financial report disclosure habits of listed companies, companies with outstanding performance will often release performance forecasts before the market to facilitate market speculation. For those companies with extremely poor performance, they will try to postpone the release of their earnings forecasts, and some companies will not even release forecasts to avoid stock price shocks.
Jingyang observed that more than half of the more than 100 companies that have disclosed the interim report forecast are growing, and 20% of them have a performance growth rate of more than 100%! From last week to this week, some high-performance stocks have also received great attention from the market, the most typical is undoubtedly Kaizhong Precision 002823, the company predicts that the performance will increase by 10-14 times! Stimulated by the high growth in the performance of the report, the recent stock price of Kaizhong Precision has seen continuous changes, after the previous three boards, the stock price has not made up for the fall, and this week also hit a new high! Judging from the transaction data, Kaizhong Precision has had a number of institutional seats involved in the past week or two, and there are also first-line tour capital participation. The trend of the main institutions to adjust their positions has told us that the high performance of the medium report is one of the key sniping directions in the near future!
It is worth noting that up to now, the disclosure of the report is just the beginning, although the performance of Kaizhong Precision has increased by 10-14 times, but it is certainly not the fastest growing company, I am afraid that it may not even rank in the top ten! Therefore, in the short term, the probability of high performance and high growth stocks is still very high in the market!
In a sense, the semiconductor industry chain, which has been highly active in recent weeks, is a gathering place for high-growth stocks in the reported performance! At present, BIWIN Storage 688525 has released an interim report, with a net profit of 280 million to 330 million in the middle of this year, compared with a loss of 300 million in the same period last year and a loss of 600 million for the whole year! Obviously, BIWIN Storage will usher in a large-scale performance inflection point this year! In addition to BIWIN Storage, after the close of trading on Friday, Weir shares and Montage Technology also released interim forecasts, with performance forecasts of up to 700%-800% and 600% in the other! In the semiconductor industry chain, there have been 3 companies whose reported performance has skyrocketed, which shows that the entire industry has seen a significant improvement in the industry's prosperity stimulated by the explosion of AI demand!
From this, we can also infer that there are more semiconductor industry chain companies, and this year's interim performance will be extremely bright! So in addition to semiconductors, which other sectors will not report bad results? Jingyang would like to remind you that the precious metals, chemicals, and port shipping in the early stage of resource price increases, etc., are worth looking forward to this year's interim performance wave! The strong strength of precious metals this Friday is due to a considerable part of the reason for the high growth expectation in the report!
3. Internet of Vehicles: The residual temperature of the main line hotspot in the early stage is still there, and the elasticity is still not low next week!
In addition to semiconductors, the Internet of vehicles is one of the directions with the highest attention in the entire market recently!
Judging from the news, the recent positive news of the entire sector is also extremely intensive, and all kinds of news before this week will not be mentioned. On Wednesday, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other five departments jointly issued the "Notice on Announcing the List of Pilot Cities for the Application of Intelligent Connected Vehicles". 20 cities (consortiums), including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Chongqing, Chengdu, Nanjing, Wuhan and Shenyang, have been identified as pilot cities for the application of "vehicle-road-cloud integration" for intelligent networked vehicles.
Subsequently, the city of Beijing solicited public comments on the "Beijing Autonomous Vehicle Regulations". It is proposed to make overall plans for traffic areas and roads, support the regional opening of intelligent roadside infrastructure improvement, coordinate the construction of a unified autonomous vehicle safety monitoring platform and cloud control infrastructure platform in the city, support relevant entities to carry out autonomous driving map application pilots, and give full play to the role of map support.
From the perspective of funds, the Internet of vehicles is also one of the few sectors in the near future, and there are institutional funds to increase positions. Since June 18, more than 6 companies in the sector have been heavily bought by major institutions. This Friday, there was a single needle bottom in the market, and from the direction of the day's institutional positioning, the Internet of Vehicles was once again bought by the main force in small quantities!
From the perspective of plate trends, this week's plate has gradually fluctuated and pulled, and by Friday, the sector index was still in the weak zone below the 5-day line, but it deviated slightly from the 5-day line and was slightly oversold. If the market is stable next week, most of the Internet of vehicles will appear in the main self-help market, and the probability of the plate index breaking through into the average harness is greater!
In Jingyang's view, although next week is still an electric fan market, it may be difficult for the vast majority of sectors to continue to strengthen for a week. However, the short-term elasticity of the three hot spots mentioned above should not be bad next week. What we all need to do is to step on the rhythm and suck low, instead of rising and chasing higher!
In addition to these hot spots, next week we also need to pay attention to the risk of making up for the decline in the high-dividend sector, as well as the risk of thunderstorms in the stocks with poor performance in the report!
Recently, many retail investors have just stopped out of small-cap stocks and switched into high-dividend sectors that continue to strengthen. But on Friday, banks, insurance, etc. collectively fell sharply, indicating that the risk of short-term catch-up in the high-dividend sector has appeared! Judging from the trend of bank stocks, after the fall in the yin on Friday, there are already signs of a stage double top.
I don't know if you have ever thought about why related stocks can still be stable and strong when you haven't paid attention to high-dividend sectors before. As soon as you noticed these stocks, you turned around and fell within a few days of buying them? Jingyang can only tell everyone that this is definitely not a coincidence! In many cases, opportunities that even ordinary retail investors can find are often not opportunities, but traps!