Compared with other listed companies in the track, listed liquor companies never skimp on year-end dividends. On July 2, the reporter combed through the 2023 dividend plans of 20 A-share liquor listed companies and found that among the 20 liquor listed companies, 16 liquor listed companies will pay dividends, and the cumulative dividend amount will reach 109.116 billion yuan (including Kweichow Moutai special dividends).
Although the liquor sector has staged a "heroic" drama in dividends, the total market value has been declining. According to statistics, the cumulative market value of the 20 A-share liquor stocks on the last trading day in the first half of 2024 was 3,284.011 billion yuan, compared with 3,752.1 billion yuan on the first trading day of this year, and about 468.089 billion yuan was evaporated.
Nowadays, when the hot dividend and the cold stock price collide, how will the second half of the liquor sector be laid out?
109.116 billion staged "banknote capacity"
According to statistics from a reporter from Beijing Business Daily, the cumulative dividend amount of 20 A-share liquor listed companies in 2023 will reach 109.116 billion yuan (including Kweichow Moutai's special dividend). Among them, 16 liquor listed companies pay dividends, and another four liquor listed companies, Rock Shares, Golden Seed Liquor, Huangtai Liquor and Shunxin Agriculture, do not pay dividends.
Among the 16 listed liquor companies that paid dividends, the five leading enterprises of Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao respectively distributed cash dividends of 62.787 billion yuan (including tax included), 18.127 billion yuan (tax included), 7.02 billion yuan (tax included), 5.331 billion yuan (tax included) and 7.949 billion yuan (tax included), totaling 101.214 billion yuan.
In 2023, the total cash dividend of A-share liquor listed companies will increase by 10.42% compared with the total cash dividend of 97.748 billion yuan (including Kweichow Moutai's special dividend) in 2022. Among them, among the 16 liquor listed companies that chose to pay dividends, a total of 13 increased their dividends, of which Wuliangye increased by 3.447 billion yuan, and 3 reduced their dividends, of which the drunkard liquor decreased by up to 97 million yuan.
From the perspective of the proportion of leading enterprises, Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Shanxi Fenjiu and Luzhou Laojiao accounted for 92.76% of the total dividends of 20 liquor listed companies, compared with 92.74% in 2022, an increase of 0.02 percentage points.
In this regard, Shen Meng, director of Xiangsong Capital, told a reporter from Beijing Business Daily that the liquor industry, especially the top liquor companies, has a low demand for capital expenditure, so they have a higher proportion of dividend distribution ability, and they are relatively generous compared with other industries. At present, the liquor industry does not rely on production capacity, R&D or innovation competition, but brand accumulation, especially the historical accumulation of head brands, so at present, enterprises do not have much pressure after obtaining a large amount of net cash inflow, or the impact of continued investment on the performance of liquor companies is limited.
Hidden behind the continuous increase in dividends is the inevitable result of the continuous improvement of the performance of liquor listed companies. The reporter found that in the first quarter of 2024, the cumulative operating income of the 20 A-share liquor listed companies was 150.156 billion yuan, an increase of 19.211 billion yuan compared with 130.945 billion yuan in the first quarter of 2023, an increase of 14.67% year-on-year.
Cai Xuefei, a senior expert in liquor, pointed out that behind the booming performance of liquor listed companies, more is the change of the high concentration of the liquor market, and the income of the second echelon of liquor companies continues to expand, with an income scale of 20 billion to 30 billion yuan, which is already several times that of some small and medium-sized regional liquor companies, which also reflects the further improvement of the market share of liquor head enterprises.
The market value evaporated by 468.089 billion
When the listed liquor companies raised the ceiling of cash dividends under the catalysis of performance, on the other hand, the market value of the capital market evaporated by 468.089 billion yuan in half a year.
The reporter sorted out and found that on the first trading day of this year (January 2), the market value of 20 A-share liquor listed companies totaled 3.75 trillion yuan, and as of the last trading day of the first half of 2024 (June 28), the total market value of 20 A-share listed liquor companies was 3.28 trillion yuan. After rough calculation, the market value of 20 A-share liquor listed companies evaporated by about 468.089 billion yuan in the first half of the year.
According to statistics, the largest decline in market value in the first half of the year was rock shares, from the first trading day of the beginning of the year of 6.014 billion yuan market value, down to 2.197 billion yuan on the last trading day of June, a decrease of 173.74%. For the substantial evaporation of market value, a reporter from Beijing Business Daily called the secretary of the board of directors of Rock Co., Ltd., but did not receive a reply as of press time.
In terms of breakdown, there are a total of 4 wine companies with a decline of less than 10%, namely Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Gujing Gongjiu and Jinshiyuan; There are 3 wine companies with a decline of 10%-20%, namely Kweichow Moutai, Yingjiagong Liquor and Kouzijiao Liquor; There are a total of 7 wine companies with a decline of 20%-50%, namely Yanghe Co., Ltd., Luzhou Laojiao, Shunxin Agriculture, Jinhui Liquor, Laobai Dry Liquor, Tianyoude Liquor and Elite; There are a total of 4 liquor companies with a decline of 50%-100%, namely Shuijingfang, Jiugui Liquor, Shede Liquor and Golden Seed Liquor; In addition, there are 2 wine companies with a decline of more than 100%, namely Rock Co., Ltd. and Huangtai Liquor.
Compared with last year, as of the last trading day of the first half of 2023 (June 30), the cumulative market value of the 20 A-share listed liquor companies was 3.97 trillion yuan, compared with 3.28 trillion yuan on the last trading day of the first half of this year (June 28), a year-on-year decrease of 21.01%.
From the perspective of the increase in the market value of individual stocks, among the 20 A-share listed liquor companies, the market value of Shanxi Fenjiu on the last trading day in the first half of 2024 increased by 12.24% compared with the market value on the last trading day of 2023. The other 19 liquor listed companies fell by 10.96%-278.93%.
In this regard, liquor practitioners pointed out that the off-season of liquor consumption dominated in the first half of the year, so in the state of insufficient demand in the end market, the performance of liquor listed companies in the capital market will also be slightly "sluggish". However, with the peak season of liquor, the performance of the terminal market and the capital market will rebound.
How to break free from inventory pressure?
Now, with the whistle blowing in the second half, what awaits the liquor sector is not only the recovery of the capital market, but also the gradual acceleration of market sales due to the arrival of the peak season.
Recently, the reporter visited some terminal markets in Beijing and found that the current market inventory pressure is large, and some of the products are seriously pressed. The general manager of a liquor company in Beijing told a reporter from Beijing Business Daily: "At present, the prices of most famous liquor products are upside down, and the capital chain of dealers is tight, and most of them do not make money, or even lose money. ”
According to the "2024 China Liquor Market Interim Research Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report") prepared by the Market Professional Committee of the China Liquor Industry Association, in the first half of this year, more than 60% of distributors and terminal retailers said that inventory increased, and 40% said that the inversion of the actual sales price had increased, and the price adjustment behavior of liquor companies did not completely offset the inventory pressure. In addition, in the first half of 2024, 80% of the surveyed liquor companies said that the market was cold.
In this regard, Dong Baozhen, chairman of Lingtong Shengtai Investment Management and manager of the fund of Nojitai, believes that the destocking work of the liquor industry may need to continue for a period of time. Judging from past market experience, large-scale destocking of enterprises will inevitably be accompanied by a large dumping of price for volume, which will lead to a sharp drop in market wine prices. At present, in order to maintain performance growth and market share, most wine companies use a long-term strategy of de-escalation, and adopt strict control measures for terminal prices, rather than conventional dumping, and the industry adjustment period has also been extended.
When the terminal pressure doubles, although wine companies have been digesting inventory through promotions and strong channels, the problems of overcapacity and imbalance between supply and demand are still obvious.
The reporter combed through the financial reports of 20 liquor listed companies in A-share and found that as of the end of 2023, the inventory of 20 liquor listed companies totaled 149.095 billion yuan, an increase of 16.262 billion yuan year-on-year, and the inventory of 19 listed companies increased collectively. It is worth noting that at the end of 2023, in the 10 billion club, the total inventory of Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Yanghe, Shanxi Fenjiu, Luzhou Laojiao, Gujing Gongjiu, Shunxin Agriculture, and Jinshiyuan will be 46.435 billion yuan, 17.388 billion yuan, 18.954 billion yuan, 11.573 billion yuan, 11.622 billion yuan, 7.52 billion yuan, 2.194 billion yuan and 4.996 billion yuan, totaling 120.682 billion yuan, accounting for 80.94% of the total inventory of liquor listed companies.
In view of the current multiplication of inventory pressure, the China Liquor Industry Association pointed out in the report that through the implementation of the price project, wine companies can gradually solve the problem of price inversion and stabilize the market price system.
Xiao Zhuqing, a liquor marketing expert, also told reporters: "It will take a while for the recovery of liquor purchasing power to recover. During this period, wine companies need to increase revenue and reduce expenditure, reduce various operating costs, reduce ineffective input, and change the extensive market operation mode, while fully developing corporate resources and pursuing more profitable projects, so as to share operating expenses. (Liu Yibo, Feng Ruonan)
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