Today's market is quite frustrating.
The opening rose slightly, and then dived rapidly, with the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 indices falling 1.2% at one point, and a large number of companies fell. I thought it was cold again today, but the index kept climbing the pit, and the tail market rose again.
At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index was 2,995 points.
It's close to 3000 points, right? It's a pity that the index is coming back soon, and our money is still far away, and we are well-deserved "financial consumers".
1. Talking about "financial consumers"
Over the weekend, in some official websites and media reports, the previous term "financial investor" was changed to "financial consumer".
As soon as this incident broke out, many netizens were full of complaints.
Image source: official website
I specifically looked up some definitions, explanations.
With the increasing abundance of financial products in the past decade, financial consumer products such as credit cards, reserves, credit payments, and installment payments have developed wildly.
In terms of policy definition, it may also refer to this category.
The rapid development of financial consumer goods has blurred the boundaries between the two. However, I believe that the essential difference between financial investment and financial consumption is still obvious:
First, there is a great risk of loss of principal in investment, and there must be a corresponding return on income. Consumption generally refers to eating, drinking, and having fun, and spending it when it is spent.
Second, if there is no return on investment after bearing the corresponding risks, then who still makes high-risk securities investments? Who would risk the loss of some consumer goods at an exorbitant value?
Third, among the troika of the domestic economy -- foreign trade and export, investment, and consumption, the three have always been distinct and have not been mixed together.
Therefore, 100% of long-term high-risk investors such as basic citizens and shareholders are "financial investors". It would be sad and lamenable to change from "financial investors" to "financial consumers......
2. I've lost 12-13% year-to-date
However, looking at the whole market, the median A-shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell by 23% in the first half of this year.
The style is 19 different!
A small number of weighted companies, such as banks, coal, electricity, etc., have performed better because of higher dividend yields, institutional groups, and national team blood transfusions.
Most of the other 80-90% companies, mainly small, medium and micro caps, generally fell by 30-40% in the first half of the year.
Therefore, we are all real "financial consumers".
Source: iFind; As of June 30, 2024
On the contrary, the bond market is walking steadily and happily.
Taking the CSI Pure Bond Fund Index (930609) as an example, except for two waves of drawdowns in the past five years, it has risen steadily in other times.
If you need a list of bond bases and want to know about the real bond base positions, you can get the list by private message.
Source: iFind; As of June 27, 2024
By the way, I would like to report to you:
My current personal equity position has reached more than 80%.
The main reason is that I was more optimistic about the situation before, thinking that A-shares and Hong Kong stocks can stabilize their positions, at least they will not fall sharply, right? ! The result is not angry, and it is back to the freezing point......
and overconfidence in some of the deep-value targets. It is mainly a certain wind automobile group in Hong Kong stocks, and as a result, such a large central enterprise has fallen from the extremely undervalued price-to-book ratio of 0.13 times when it was bought to the more extreme price-to-book ratio of 0.11 times now......
The above two major judgment errors caused me to increase my position and the damage was full.
Coupled with the fund account part, I have probably calculated that all my earnings this year have fallen back, and I have lost about 12-13% year-to-date.
Writing this, I suddenly remembered a wise saying:
"Inflation won't make you lose a lot, but trying to outperform inflation and over-inflating yourself will make you lose a lot of money or even go bankrupt."
However, ridicule is a challenge, and a complaint is a complaint, and investment involving real money cannot be emotional, but it is still necessary to analyze and make decisions objectively and rationally.
At this point, I will never admit defeat!
Note: The sharing of personal investment views does not constitute investment advice.
3. Follow the national team into the field
In the morning, during the morning meeting of the department, a colleague said that he would follow the national team into the field. This point of view is indeed correct and worthy of affirmation.
As of last Friday, according to iFind data, in just 10 days (two weeks, 10 trading days), as much as 55.6 billion yuan of funds have been used to buy A-shares through ETFs.
It can also be seen from the funds in the chart below that these funds mainly buy broad-based index funds, and the purchase volume of industries, strategies, and styles is not prominent.
Source: iFind; As of June 30, 2024
Specific to the composition of funds, the purchase of the main national team, it is estimated that the national team will buy a total of 300-40 billion in the near future, and the rest will follow the funds.
Let's review the national team's past buying situation and future performance.
Some of the buying points of Huijin Company are shown in the figure below:
Source: iFind; As of June 30, 2024
For example, in October 2012, when the A-share market continued to slump, Huijin began to buy the four major banks of industry, agriculture, China and construction. As of April 2013, Huijin has increased its holdings by more than 2 billion.
For example, in June 2013, Huijin once again increased its holdings in the four major banks. At the same time, when the Shanghai Composite Index fell to 1,849 points, Huijin subscribed to a large number of ETF index funds.
For example, during the stock market crash in 2015, Zhengjin and Huijin appeared on the list of the top ten circulating shareholders of more than 1,300 companies, costing about 1.23 trillion yuan. There are also 10 major CSI financial asset management plans, which also cost 200 billion. The total cost is 1.5 trillion.
Another example is the present, at the beginning of this year, Huijin and other national teams bought 400 billion, and recently bought another 300-40 billion. It cost more than 430 billion yuan in half a year.
Looking back, from 2008 to 2024, the national team has been in the market for more than 15 years, and the intensity of entering the market is greater and greater every time, and the time of entering the market is mostly when the market panics. Therefore, it is a good investment strategy to follow the national team into the field.
Maybe you will lose some time, but you will never lose much space.
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Disclaimer: The content of this article is based on public information research and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should make prudent decisions and bear risks independently.
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