The first-tier cities have amplified their moves! The property market is picking up at an accelerated pace!

Jiang Hao said economically

2024-05-27 21:55Posted in Guangdong financial field creators

Just now, Shanghai has launched a new policy for the property market, which mainly includes the following six points:

1. Shanghai's social security for housing purchase is changed from 5 to 3, Xincheng talents are changed from 3 to 2, and Lingang Free Trade Zone continues to implement social security for 1 year;

2. Cancel the restrictions on single people to buy houses, and cancel the restrictions on divorced couples;

3. Fully support enterprises to purchase houses, and there is no limit to the number of sets;

4. The lower limit of the interest rate for the first set is adjusted to 3.5%, and the minimum for the first house is 20%; The interest rate of the second home loan is 3.9%, the mortgage in the outer area is 3.7%, and the down payment ratio is 35%;

5. The provident fund loan amount has been increased from 800,000 to 1.6 million;

6. Difficult type just needs to buy a house subsidy of 2-30,000 yuan;

Judging from the above six points, the strength is super-historical and unprecedented!

A few days ago, everyone was still discussing whether the first-tier cities would follow up on the 517 New Deal, and many people felt that the first-tier cities would not easily follow up.

Obviously, Shanghai's new policy is taken off to the end, and there is no hiding and tucking, and then the pressure is on Beijing and Shenzhen!

01, will Beijing and Shenzhen follow up?

In this regard, Mr. Jiang has 5 views:

First, according to the rhythm of these rounds of policy relaxation, once Shanghai is loosened, there is no need for Beijing to hold it, so Mr. Jiang judged that Beijing is also very likely to introduce a 5 to 3 policy!

Second, judging from the market after Beijing's 517, in fact, the property market is gradually heating up!

From May 1st to 27th, 14,000 second-hand houses have been transacted, and it is expected that Beijing can reach 17,000 units throughout May, close to the level of 18,000 in Xiaoyangchun in March this year.

Therefore, as long as the property market in Beijing is loosened, the property market will be completely ignited next!

Third, there is another data that everyone should pay attention to, that is, Beijing removed 8,000 houses from the shelves in May.

It shows that the expectations of many owners have begun to pull back, because they have confidence in the next Beijing property market, so they are not in a hurry to sell, wait for the market to improve, and sell at a good price!

Fourth, in Shenzhen, Mr. Jiang believes that he will immediately follow up on the relaxation policy.

And Shenzhen in this round of property market cycle, will still play a pioneering role, only Shenzhen leads the national market, Beijing and Shanghai to keep up, then the overall heat of the first-tier cities up, the national property market expectations can be successfully reversed!

Fifth, in the strong second-tier cities, only Hangzhou and Chengdu property market is still hot, and many outsiders have begun to go to Chengdu and Hangzhou to snap up high-product improvement projects, indicating that everyone is still full of confidence in Hangzhou and Chengdu!

It seems that the property market is picking up this time, it is already the trend of the times, the mainland property market is a policy market, as long as our high-level wants to save the property market, it will definitely be able to save it!

02, it is more difficult to buy a house, we have to wait patiently for the opportunity

But buying a house, I think the difficulty is getting bigger and bigger, everyone at this time, don't be blindly optimistic, after all, there is still a real big move has not come out, water release, treasury bonds, global interest rate cuts, all have not come, so at this time, we must calm down and wait for the flowers to bloom!

The property market is a cyclical game, and if you want to win in this game, you only need to do six words:

Buy before you go up, sell before you go down!

From 2020 to 2021, Mr. Jiang shipped a total of 3 sets in Shenzhen, and this year's goal is very simple, buy another 3-5 sets!

If you don't understand the property market, you will scold your mother, aren't you speculating in real estate?

You are wrong, this is not speculation, this is self-protection, even if you just need to buy a house, you must step on the right time, because the time is right, you can earn at least hundreds of thousands, or even millions!

Since it is a market, there is naturally a zero-sum game, and other people's losses are your profits!

It is human nature to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and there is nothing to be ashamed of, on the contrary, people who do not know how to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages need to improve their cognition!

I think the next three months are the time nodes that all people in the housing circle need to pay attention to, because in the next three months, the performance of the property market data is related to what kind of way we will enter the game!

03, what opportunities and changes will we usher in in the next three months?

The first is to stimulate inflation, and the series of special treasury bonds just released are actually the same as Japan's practice, the central government borrows money, pours monetary water into the market, and spares no effort to stimulate inflation!

Second, next, you will see the price of water and electricity bills, the price of high-speed rail, the price of college students, the price of fruit and meat, and even the price of Master Kong's instant noodles have to rise.

Third, rising prices are not a bad thing, the key is to inflation wages, to improve the income of the people, this can be seen from this national standing meeting, we want to do cross-border e-commerce, from overseas warehouses, to import and export tariffs, to corporate tax reduction, will give significant support!

Cross-border e-commerce is a very important part of the mainland economy, and we must export production capacity to the outside world, so that everyone's income can be boosted!

Through the above analysis, in fact, in the next 1-2 time, we have two huge opportunities, for ordinary people, in fact, it is the outlet!

The first outlet, of course, is cross-border e-commerce!

Next, those who are engaged in cross-border e-commerce industry chain related work will usher in a wave of wealth, of course, the closest city to this wealth wave:

One is the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area urban agglomeration with Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Dongguan and Foshan as the core;

The other is the Yangtze River Delta manufacturing city with Hangzhou, Ningbo, Suzhou and Shanghai as the core, as well as many third- and fourth-tier cities in the mainland, cities with characteristic industrial chains;

For example, the luggage industry in Baoding, Hebei, Weifang, Liaocheng, and Jining's electric three-wheeled industry, don't underestimate these small cities, these products have long been sold to Europe, America, Southeast Asia, Africa and other places through cross-border e-commerce!

Mr. Jiang has also recently invested in the cross-border e-commerce team, and in half a year, there has been a very good return!

The second outlet is investment!

At this time, you should actively go to first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities to deploy assets, especially Shenzhen, Chengdu, and Hangzhou, all of which have opportunities!

There are also opportunities in the stock market, and since the beginning of this year, the leading cross-border e-commerce stocks I have purchased have had good returns in the past few months!

Although the general trend has not come now, there are still small trends, lobster and abalone have not been eaten, but standing on the tuyere, small fish and shrimp are still full!

Summary: The opportunity for ordinary people to counterattack has come

The biggest risk of buying a house now is not that house prices will continue to fall, but that once you miss this opportunity, you will not be able to make up for it if you work for 20 more jobs or a lifetime! This is definitely not alarmist!

In the past 20 years, I have bought a lot of houses, and I use my experience to tell you that in fact, now is the bottom space of housing prices, and it is also the bottom space of policies, so buying a house now is the best time in the next ten years!

First, the down payment is 1.5 percent, the lowest in history!

There has never been a time in history when the down payment ratio has been as low as it is now, and what does it mean to get down to 15%? If house prices drop by another 15%, then buyers will become insolvent and will cut off their mortgages without hesitation, triggering financial risks.

One thing is ridiculous, that is, many financial big Vs are still singing about the empty property market in order to get traffic!

You can't understand the significance of the 517 New Deal today, just as you couldn't understand the 4 trillion water release in 2008 and the monetization shed reform in 2015!

Policy tools are dynamically changing, and if this is useless, there will be a more vigorous one, but the perception of the poor will not change, they will only continue to be stable and poor!

Especially those unscrupulous media, saying that population will affect housing prices, these people either have not bought a house, or they are simply greedy for traffic to deceive everyone!

Let me ask you rhetorically, with a population of more than 300 million in the United States, why have housing prices kept rising in New York? There are more than a dozen first-tier cities in the United States, as well as more than two dozen second-tier cities and regional center cities, and housing prices in the core area are rising!

So do we! It is the same in any country, only the core area of the core city is qualified to talk about real estate!

From the perspective of the 20 most expensive cities in the world, there are 18 cities in the country where the population is negative, and there is no city in the world that has high housing prices because of the large young population, but because of the imbalance between supply and demand caused by rising wages, good supporting facilities and dense population, so that housing prices have risen!

Therefore, we must clearly know that the fundamental reason for the rise and fall of housing prices is the relationship between supply and demand, and the city with the most typical supply and demand relationship in the mainland and the city with the most serious contradiction between man and land is Shenzhen!

Shenzhen covers an area of less than 2,000 square kilometers, but it has created a GDP of more than 3.4 trillion yuan, has a management population of more than 20 million, and the number of commercial houses in Shenzhen is only 2 million!

About 80 people in Shenzhen actually do not live in commercial housing, do you say that housing prices in Shenzhen can not rise?

Second, according to the population theory, China has 9.6 million square kilometers, in fact, per capita, everyone can live in a big villa, but why don't you have a big villa?

Because land is monopolized in the hands of the rich, it's like there are many high schools and universities in China, but only a few people can go to them!

Understand this truth, you will know why many cities have to control the supply of land, because if it is controlled, housing prices can rise steadily, and the wealth and economy of the city's residents can rise steadily!

After the 517 New Deal came out, the listing price of a second-hand house in Nanshan, Shenzhen rose by 1 million overnight, which is the difference between the way the poor and the rich make money, the poor can not earn 1 million in their lifetime, but the rich can earn it in one night!

Third, the biggest risk of buying a house now is not the fall in housing prices, but that once you miss this opportunity, you, and your children, may not be able to catch up with it if you work for 10 more years, 20 years, or a lifetime!

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Personal opinion, for reference only