If A-shares rebound next week, we need to focus on this node

National Business Daily

2024-05-26 11:22Published on the official account of Sichuan Daily Economic News

Every reporter: Zhao Yun Every editor: Peng Shuiping

In the past trading week (May 20-May 24), the upward momentum of A-shares weakened, and the volatility was significantly amplified. In the first half of the week, it was still high and volatile, but in the second half of the week, it suddenly fell in two days, and the Shanghai Composite Index temporarily fell below 3,100 points.

I believe many people are wondering, why did A-shares fall this week?

Compared with the market in previous weeks, it can be found that there are three main problems:

1) Shrinkage of energy

2) Northbound is not buying enough

Although northbound funds are no longer a real-time intraday indicator, judging from the data released after hours, there is still a clear correspondence between their trends and market ups and downs, or rules.

For example, this week, the trading day of northbound net inflows (Monday and Wednesday) is also the day when A-shares close.

Judging from the weekly performance, the northbound funds that have been continuously net inflows in the past 5 weeks have also closed the corresponding weekly K-lines of the Shanghai Composite Index when the buying intensity was greater in the previous 4 weeks.

There are also views in the market recently that northbound funds are one of the main forces in this wave of rebound. Some investment influencers said that the northbound inflow strength guides the future market direction, and the priority (at present) is greater than the technical form.

3) Hedging of funds

On the one hand, there is relatively unfavorable news from the periphery.

The main reason is that after the Fed meeting minutes were strongly "hawkish", the statements of many Fed officials continued to carry out the "eagle song" to the end. U.S. stocks and Asia-Pacific markets have been impacted.

On the other hand, geopolitical tensions can also affect market sentiment.

Other more microscopic reasons will not be analyzed here.

Based on the above three points, if the market rebounds next week (whether it is a temporary rebound or continues to rise strongly), it is clear that there should be at least one of the following three improvements:

1) The amount can be rebounded

2) Increase inflow in the northbound direction

3) The news side and emotional side are warmer

In addition, let's talk about "technical forms" again.

Some optimists believe that the current annual line of the Shanghai Composite Index is around 3076 points, which is very close to this Friday's closing point, and you can find an opportunity to buy the bottom.

3076 points is also the starting position before the Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke through 3100 points on April 26. Regardless of whether it rebounds next week or not, and what the quality is, when the Shanghai Composite Index falls to the annual line, it is always a node of the game.

This Friday's morning market surge and late volume increase are actually funds in the game.

1. Among the indices that hit new highs after March, the five major indexes of the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index, the CSI 300 Index, the CSI 500 Index, and the Shanghai 50 Index all showed a top divergence.

2. Among the indices that have not reached new highs after March, the MACD of the ChiNext Index, the CSI 1000 Index, and the CNI 2000 Index have all appeared dead forks, and green columns have appeared. The STAR 50 Index has been "underwater" in the past few days and has seen a dead fork.

3. Judging from the above five top divergences, the Shanghai Composite Index, the Shenzhen Component Index, the CSI 300 Index, the CSI 500 Index, and the SSE 50 Index all have a 30-minute and 60-minute top divergence.

In other words, the five major indices have all seen a top divergence, and all of them are multi-period top divergence resonances. This situation of "multi-index and multi-period top divergence resonance", judging from historical experience, is likely to usher in a medium-term adjustment.

How do you deal with the adjustment?

As long as you feel that "it is impossible to empty a short position", it is recommended to continue reading and have a more systematic grasp of the possible information gap this weekend and next week.

1. Preview of next week's events

Monday, May 27th

The National Bureau of Statistics will release a monthly report on the economic benefits of industry

Previous data show that from January to March this year, China's industrial enterprises above designated size achieved operating income of 30.96 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%; The total profit was 1,505.53 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.3%.

Tuesday, May 28th

(No major events yet, relatively dull)

Wednesday, May 29th

The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council held a press conference

The Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council is scheduled to hold a regular press briefing at 10 a.m. in the press briefing room of the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council, at which the spokesman will answer reporters' questions on recent cross-strait hot issues.

CLNB 2024 The 9th China International New Energy Industry Expo will be held from 29 to 31

According to public information, the conference focused on the whole industry chain of new energy, focusing on industry development, technological innovation, energy storage applications, new energy vehicles, critical minerals and other fields, focusing on lithium battery, sodium electricity, energy storage applications, hydrogen energy, photovoltaics, new energy materials, high-end intelligent equipment, motor electronic control and new energy vehicles. At that time, more than 1,200 domestic and foreign enterprises will gather in Suzhou.

美股结算“T+2”变“T+1”

Starting from the 28th local time, U.S. stock trading will be "settled" within one day (T+1) (completing the exchange of dollars and stocks) instead of two days (T+2). At present, the U.S. stock market implements the T+0 trading system, but the T+2 settlement and delivery system is implemented, and investors buy a stock and can sell the stock on the same day, but the settlement of the transaction is not completed immediately.

Thursday, May 30th

The 13th Beijing International Robot Exhibition (CRS EXPO) will be held from May 30 to June 1

Friday, May 31

The National Bureau of Statistics will release China's PMI data for May

Previous data showed that in April, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.4%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, and was in the expansion range for two consecutive months, and the manufacturing industry continued to maintain a recovery and development trend.

After the new "National Nine Articles", the first IPO company on the Science and Technology Innovation Board will be presented

On the evening of May 24, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued an announcement of the review meeting of the Listing Committee, intending to review the application for the issuance and listing of Lianru Technology on the Science and Technology Innovation Board on May 31. This is also the first IPO listing committee review meeting of the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the Science and Technology Innovation Board after the release of the new "National Nine Measures" and the "Sixteen Measures for the High-level Development of Capital Market Services Technology Enterprises".

According to the prospectus, Lianru Technology was established in 2014 and is a platform-based chip design enterprise that provides data storage master control chips, AIoT signal processing and transmission chips. According to the prospectus, in the independent SSD main control chip market, in 2023, Lianru Technology's SSD main control chip shipments will account for 22%, ranking second in the world.

Saturday, June 1

The C919 will make its first commercial flight abroad

The Federation of Shanghai-Hong Kong Community Organizations will organize 150 outstanding Hong Kong students to fly from Hong Kong to Shanghai on C919 for internship, realizing the first overseas commercial flight of a large domestic aircraft.

On May 28 last year, the C919 completed its first commercial flight in China.

A number of paper companies raised the price of cultural paper, an increase of 300 yuan/ton

According to previous reports, Huatai shares, Chenming Paper, Jianghe Paper, etc. have price adjustments.

In terms of the market, Wind statistics show that a total of 62 companies' restricted shares will be lifted next week, with a total of 4.325 billion shares, and the total market value of the ban will be 93.88 billion yuan based on the closing price on May 24.

According to the closing price on May 24, the top three market capitalizations are: Dongpeng Beverage (53.444 billion yuan), Zhejiang Xinneng (15.519 billion yuan), and Aimer shares (4.755 billion yuan).

From the perspective of the number of individual stocks, the top three shares are: Zhejiang Xinneng (1.872 billion shares), China Heavy Industry (718 million shares), and Aimer shares (346 million shares).

Next week, the People's Bank of China will have 10 billion yuan of reverse repo maturity in the open market, including 2 billion yuan per day from Monday to Friday.

In addition, there are 2 new shares subscribed for A-shares next week, and no new shares are listed. Among them, on May 28, Li'an Technology subscribed; On May 31, Dameng Data subscribed.

Second, the recent news inventory

The China Securities Regulatory Commission and the exchange made big moves

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) issued the Interim Measures for the Administration of Shareholding Reduction by Shareholders of Listed Companies and related supporting rules.

The Administrative Measures for Shareholding Reduction refines the circumstances of violations that should be punished, which is conducive to shareholders fully understanding the types of violations, facilitating regulatory law enforcement, and punishing those who refuse to correct in a timely manner or the circumstances are serious.

The new rules are also regarded by the market as the strictest and most comprehensive rules in the history of A-shares.

At the same time, the Shanghai Stock Exchange issued a notice saying that this week, the Shanghai Stock Exchange took written warnings and other regulatory measures against 67 abnormal securities trading behaviors such as lifting and suppression, false declarations, etc., and focused on monitoring stocks such as Nanjing Chemical Fiber.

On the evening of the same day, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced that it would focus on monitoring abnormal securities such as "Zhengdan shares" and "*ST Weihai" this week.

(Note: From 3.16 yuan to 31.77 yuan, Zhengdan shares will become the first 10 baggers in the A-share market in 2024 this Friday)

Goldman Sachs recently upgraded its ratings on these sectors in a bullish voice on Chinese equities

Goldman Sachs China Equity Strategist Liu Jinjin said at a media conference held on May 24: "Chinese equities have performed well since April this year, and many Asian funds underweight China have begun to underperform the benchmark, and investors may further increase their positions in China in the coming months due to performance pressure." ”

In terms of allocation, Goldman Sachs continued to be bullish on the Internet sector, upgrading the ratings of consumer services and real estate cycle-related sectors, and downgrading the automotive and industrial consumer goods sectors.

Ceasefire talks in Gaza will resume next week

CCTV news reporters learned on the 25th local time that ceasefire negotiations in the Gaza Strip will resume next week.

The head of Israel's intelligence and secret services, after a meeting with the director of the US Central Intelligence Agency and the Prime Minister of Qatar in Paris, agreed to restart the negotiation process with the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas) next week on the exchange of detainees and the ceasefire in Gaza.

It is reported that Egypt will also participate in the negotiations and mediation. 

The three major U.S. stock indexes closed higher on Friday, and most of the popular Chinese concept stocks were in the red

As of Friday's close, the Dow rose 0.01%, down 2.33% this week; The Nasdaq rose 1.1%, up 1.41% this week; The S&P 500 rose 0.7% and is up 0.03% for the week.

Most of the popular technology stocks rose, Tesla, AMD rose more than 3%, Nvidia, Intel, Meta rose more than 2%. Solar, semiconductor, and automaker sectors rose higher.

Most of the popular Chinese concept stocks rose, and the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index fell 0.35%, down 8.84% this week. Li Auto rose more than 3%, Pinduoduo and Tencent Music rose more than 2%, Bilibili, Xiaopeng Motors, and Futu Holdings rose more than 1%, and Weilai, Alibaba, Full Bang, iQiyi, and Vipshop rose slightly. NetEase fell more than 4%, JD.com fell nearly 3%, Baidu fell more than 1%, and Weibo fell slightly.

3. This week's market review

Index performance: The dividend index and the BSE 50 are relatively resistant

Leading the rising and falling sectors: aquaculture, photovoltaics, and electricity are slightly stronger

Divided by industry index↓

Divided by concept index↓

The number of ups and downs, the number of ups and downs, and the market volume

This week's cumulative number of gainers: Decliners→ 924:4390

Weekly rise and fall list of individual stocks

Northbound funding: The new "number one" is it

Wind data shows that northbound funds sold a net of 4.039 billion yuan on Friday. This week, northbound funds showed a net inflow, amounting to 835 million yuan. So far, northbound funds have been net inflows into A-shares for five consecutive weeks.

For the whole week, the net purchases of Yangtze Power and CATL were 1.376 billion yuan and 1.161 billion yuan. Bank of Ningbo, Zijin Mining, China Molybdenum, Aluminum Corporation of China, Lixun Precision, etc., have increased their positions by more than 500 million yuan.

Yangtze River Power is not only the "sweet and sweet" of northbound funds this week, in fact, since last Tuesday, it has had a net inflow for 8 consecutive trading days, with the latest market value of more than 50.7 billion yuan.

On the selling side, the net sales of NARI, Hengrui Pharmaceutical, and Weichai Power were 918 million yuan, 736 million yuan, and 703 million yuan respectively.

National Business Daily

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