There is no pre-sale of 618, and the e-commerce platform has ushered in big changes

Titanium Media APP

2024-05-19 10:12Posted on the official account of Beijing Titanium Media APP

Text | The world's online merchants

A big promotion rule that has been used for many years was cut by the e-commerce platform in 618 this year.

In May, Taotian, JD.com, and Kuaishou announced that they would completely cancel the pre-sale system and directly sell spots, and Douyin e-commerce followed up.

The promotion cycle and core gameplay of each platform are as follows:

In the first year of the large-scale disappearance of pre-sales, all players pointed to the word "simple" in the rules of the game, but from the perspective of time span, the 618 front has not been shortened, and some platforms can even be called "the longest 618 in history".

"The pre-sale mechanism, which is 'only the buyer is injured', has finally been canceled." Under the hot search on Weibo, a large number of users expressed their support for the cancellation of the pre-sale system.

Looking back at the origin of the pre-sale system, there is a historical inevitability because of technical limitations, supply pressure and early competition stage. However, more than ten years have passed, and in the past two years, this system has been criticized for its damage to the user experience, and it is inevitable that it will come to an end.

In the triangle of interests of platforms, merchants, and users, the wrestling has never stopped. In 2024, major e-commerce platforms will collectively abandon pre-sales, which is not only forced by the times, but also actively corrected, and the fundamental thing is to return to "user experience".

The end of the multi-year pre-sale system may be seen as a signal that the balance is tilting - e-commerce platforms will go all the way to "C" (consumer) and enter a new era of buyers first and users first.

From a win-win situation for all parties to "only the buyer is injured", the pre-sale system has finally come to an end

Breaking 10 billion in 13 hours, Tmall created an e-commerce pre-sale system

"In 2012, Tmall introduced the pre-sale model of the real estate industry to the e-commerce promotion for the first time, and competitors followed suit." Titanium Media previously said.

That year, "Taobao Mall" was renamed "Tmall", and that year's "Singles' Day" was Double 11, shouting out "the whole site is five folds", and it sold 10 billion yuan in only 13 hours, setting a world record.

Looking back at the early days of Double 11, consumers only did two things: stay up late and wait, and grab on time.

At 0:00 on the day of the big promotion, the traffic skyrocketed like a flood, and the Taobao server was like walking a tightrope, and it "hanged" in an instant if it was not careful. In addition to the platform regards this as a major test, the pressure has increased by millions of merchants and express logistics, and the single machine is dry until it smokes, the goods are not enough to be off the shelves, and large-scale express delivery explosions occur from time to time.

The task of solving the lack of computing power of Taobao fell on the head of Alibaba Cloud. However, this technical cultivation was not achieved overnight, at that time Alibaba Cloud was established less than 3 years ago, and it was reported that in 2012, Alibaba Cloud participated in Double 11 for the first time, and only processed 20% of Taobao Tmall orders.

The birth of the pre-sale system helped a lot in that era - not only for the platform and merchants, but also for the user experience. Daniel Zhang, then president of Tmall, said that the pre-sale model is the direction of Tmall's optimistic e-commerce strategy development. "The future of e-commerce must not be B2B or B2C, but C2B, and the pre-sale model is in line with this, which tests the efficient supply chain of merchants."

Since the pre-sale requires users to pay a deposit in advance to lock in the goods, and the final payment is paid about a week later, after the sales period is extended, the user's orders can be diverted, which relieves the technical support pressure of the platform on the day of the promotion.

Merchants also breathed a sigh of relief. After the pre-sale, some sellers who lack the ability to react quickly with small orders can produce in quantity according to the order, thereby reducing inventory risks, logistics pressure, and speeding up capital turnover.

For users, there will be no page jams when grabbing goods, and the overall experience will also be improved.

From the overall effect, pre-sale can not only lock in users in advance, but also guide demand - because the deposit amount is small, consumers are prone to impulsive consumption, and when the balance is paid, it is possible to spend again. For platforms and merchants, this is an effective way to drive GMV growth.

Over the past ten years of e-commerce promotions, the beautiful battle reports that have been frequently refreshed, and the pre-sale system has also contributed to it.

The pre-sale, which contributed 3% of the sales volume to the big promotion, slowly became tasteless

Since Tmall, JD.com and other platforms have followed suit, and after the rise of content e-commerce, Douyin and Kuaishou have also joined the pre-sale camp.

At the beginning, consumers were not averse to pre-sale - fresh gameplay, cheap buying, and additional rights and interests such as gifts, pre-sale mobilized a large number of consumer enthusiasm, and young people were ridiculed for being confused by consumerism, while being willing to be a "tail payer".

The 618 pre-sale, which begins at the end of May every year, often issues large consumption coupons between the deposit and the final payment, and the gameplay has also changed from the initial balance payment that can only be paid separately to the full reduction of the single payment.

The live broadcast room with strong discounts and strong incitement has become one of the main battlefields of pre-sale.

On the first day of pre-sale of 618 in 2021, hundreds of millions of users flocked to Li Jiaqi and Wei Ya's live broadcast room, and on Double 11 in the same year, Li Jiaqi's live broadcast record of Double 11 pre-sale exceeded 10 billion, reaching 10.6 billion yuan.

Founded 10 years ago, the domestic luggage brand Guliang Jiji ushered in a turning point in its fate with a mid-year promotion. In 2020, during a 618 live broadcast of Li Jiaqi, Guliang Jiji sold 30,000 packs, and the brand's sales soared to 230 million yuan the following year.

"The pre-sale system has really helped us alleviate the pressure of stocking at a critical time." The founder, Gu Liang, told "World Online Business" that the maximum time for live broadcast pre-sale at that time was marked to 25~30 days. "Relying on the supply chain advantages of Guangzhou, we hurried to produce 15,000 bags within 7 days, and the follow-up pre-sale will be supplemented in more than 20 days."

Previous data showed that the transaction volume generated by pre-sale accounted for about one-third of the final transaction amount of the 618 promotion in previous years. The pre-sale turnover of big streamers accounts for more than 50% of the total turnover of their live streams.

However, this seemingly three-party win-win situation is gradually no longer balanced as the full reduction mechanism becomes more and more complex and the waiting cycle becomes longer and longer. The pre-sale system is still beneficial to merchants and platforms, but for users, the consumer experience is getting worse.

"1 month has passed, the clothes bought by 618 have not been shipped, and it is time to pass the season when I receive it" "A 2699 yuan beauty instrument was put into the shopping cart, and the 618 pre-sale rose by 500 yuan, which is more expensive than the spot" "I forgot to pay the final payment, and the deposit can't be returned"......

There are complaints about the pre-sale time being too low and the price increase in disguise. These negative voices, on the one hand, are related to the shortcomings of the pre-sale mechanism itself, and on the other hand, they are related to the loopholes of some merchants in pre-sales, and there are dark box behaviors such as delayed delivery and secretly increased prices.

According to a survey of 1,507 respondents by China Youth Daily, 79.6% of respondents said that ultra-long pre-sales would reduce their shopping experience. On the "Black Cat Complaints", there are tens of thousands of pre-sale-related complaints, most of which are related to false publicity and delayed delivery.

The pre-sale has withdrawn from the big promotion stage, and e-commerce is no longer only GMV

The end of the big promotion pre-sale was put on the agenda.

On Double 11 in 2023, JD.com announced that it will be sold directly in stock. Tao e-commerce has cut the maximum pre-sale time from 45 days to 30 days, and Douyin has only retained 15 days.

A larger-scale "cancellation of pre-sales" will occur in 2024.

In April this year, at an internal meeting in Taotian, there was a heated debate about whether to "cancel the 618 pre-sale", and the supporters finally won. According to a later report, an employee said, "In the era when supply is not scarce, it is difficult to artificially create a sense of scarcity, and it is difficult to win users." ”

The shock caused by the cancellation of the pre-sale system may lie in the overall transaction scale.

Previously, the pre-sale of the big promotion mainly promoted a small number of popular models, and many merchants and anchors will focus their marketing and promotion expenses on the day of the sale, using the promotion strength and scarcity as the hook to create a "rushing" atmosphere and achieve a big outbreak of nodes.

After the pre-sale is canceled, the mind of the node outbreak will likely become weaker. Taking Taobao Live as an example, according to a late report, it is expected that there will be a 5%-10% revenue fluctuation due to rule changes.

In order to balance the GMV fluctuations brought about by the new regulations, stretching the front line is a countermeasure. This year's 618, Douyin, Kuaishou, and Tmall's activity cycles have been extended compared with 618 in 2023, with 32 days, 26 days, and 42 days respectively.

"The elongation of the 618 front means that merchants have to set the operation rhythm more finely." Gu Liang, the founder of Guliang Jiji, told "World Online Business" that considering the uncertainty brought about by the changes, Guliang Jiji decided to further pre-stock this year and prepare for more goods in advance in the warehouse.

One founder of a men's care brand said, "The cancellation of the pre-sale has no impact on us. This year, 618 will cooperate with the super anchors, directly sell in stock, and all the stocks will be pulled together in advance. ”

Some industry insiders pointed out that the change in the rules has little impact on FMCG, daily necessities and other categories, and the apparel industry and some products involving original design and handmade customization may be affected.

However, "World Online Business" found that the pre-sale system withdrawal promotion is not one-size-fits-all, and it still retains some flexible space.

For example, Li Jiaqi still maintained a 1-day short pre-sale in 618 this year, and the pre-sale products on May 19 paid the balance on May 20, which said that the purpose was "convenient for users to make up the full reduction and make up the platform for large coupons".

Wu Weiqiang, vice president of the national style children's clothing brand, told the "World Online Business" that the pre-sale system is adopted for the New Year's clothes every day, because the new Chinese style is a heavy industry category, and many embroidery and printing have a long construction period, and 618 still retains this model.

Overall, although the rules are changing, the pace of stocking and marketing of merchants is bound to be adjusted to a certain extent, but these changes are within a controllable range-

With the development of e-commerce today, it is no longer difficult to predict the number of orders based on big data.

At the technical level, the support of computing power at peak activity is no longer a problem. In terms of logistics, the phenomenon of warehouse explosion is also decreasing, and most merchants will sink the goods to the provincial warehouses and city warehouses in major markets in advance on the eve of the big promotion to ensure the timeliness of delivery.

Another reality that cannot be ignored is that people's enthusiasm for big promotions has changed. The daily and decentralized promotion of low-price promotions has reduced the attractiveness of some node-type promotions, and the explosiveness of 618 and Double 11 has weakened. As the merchants lamented, "The era of high-flying orders is over." ”

Since 2022, mainstream e-commerce platforms will no longer publish the GMV data of Double 11 and 618, and the e-commerce promotion will be flat in terms of volume and growth.

A number of merchants said that on mature platforms such as Tmall and JD.com, the coefficient between big promotions and daily sales has been relatively stable.

"Tmall is currently placing orders in full according to the forecast, and if there is a small inventory, it will be digested in the next two months, so there is no big problem." Gu Liang Jiji, who focused on Tmall and Douyin this year, believes that in comparison, Douyin needs stronger prediction and fast reaction capabilities.

Behind the disappearance of the pre-sale system, the balance of e-commerce is tilted in favor of users

At the same time as the curtain call of the pre-sale system 618, another news quietly fermented in the corner - Taobao reappeared.

Since Taobao is all in mobile, the web version of Taobao has slipped into the margins. But over the past year, more than 10 million users have been using their computers to shop on Taobao every day, which seems insignificant compared to the hundreds of millions of mobile Taobao users. Until 2024, Ali has set up a team to be responsible for the optimization and upgrading of Taobao on the PC side.

This seemingly small change is actually a microcosm of the priority shift of e-commerce platforms at this stage.

In the more than 10 years since the pre-sale system has been promoted, the consumer market and the e-commerce competition pattern have undergone great changes.

From the perspective of consumer trends, although consumers are more likely to be tempted by price, at the same time, they have put forward higher requirements for product quality, service and experience. "Spend the same amount of money and less money to buy better things", the term cost performance has a new footnote in this era, which has made physical retail such as Sam's, Decathlon, and ALDI all the way popular, and also made e-commerce platforms have to respond to the trend.

Pinduoduo, which was born out of nowhere, will "have low prices every day" into the minds of users; Content platforms such as Douyin and Kuaishou are good at stimulating consumption impulses with limited time and low prices in the live broadcast room, creating demand with interest, and breaking through the market on the flanks; Cutting-edge players such as Xiaohongshu and Video Account are trying to seize the cake in a closed-loop mode.

In today's era of serious oversupply and difficulty in finding e-commerce increments, the problem facing all platforms is common - who can win and retain more users is likely to achieve sustainable growth.

"In the past, Taotian has always emphasized merchant services and consumption upgrades, but ignored the user experience, and this wrong decision has allowed Pinduoduo to rise." Ali Chairman Cai Chongxin once summed it up like this. After Wu Yongming became the new CEO of Alibaba, he also announced that he would return to the main business of e-commerce and focus on improving user experience.

In 2023, Liu Qiangdong, the founder of JD.com, also said when leaving a message on the intranet, "The starting point of any work done by JD.com should be 'don't forget users when making decisions'." ”

Looking further, e-commerce platforms collectively return to user experience, and the direction of competition has three core dimensions: low price, good goods, and good service, and calls on merchants to squeeze into this iron triangle to gain a foothold.

Price power is still the number one bayonet in the competition, and from the perspective of this year's 618 policy, the intensity has increased unabated.

Just two days ago, Tmall announced that millions of goods will be directly discounted by 5, and 200 products will be as low as 2% off in the 10 billion subsidy; According to the Beijing Business Daily, some categories of JD.com have set up a separate price comparison team to benchmark the commodity prices of the Taotian platform.

Douyin and Kuaishou also announced that they will give more subsidy support and traffic tilt to low-priced products, among which in Douyin, low-priced products can get up to 500% traffic increase.

However, the price fight cannot be bottomless, after reaching a certain stage, many users have found that the price difference between the same standard products on each platform has decreased, and some even have the same price on the whole network.

On the basis of price power, product value and user service have also become reference factors for consumption decisions. The attractiveness of good goods to users is related to product quality on the one hand, and on the other hand, it depends on whether the platform can provide differentiated pallets.

Tmall said at the TopTalk conference in April that its goal for 2024 is to "focus on brand growth", and will focus on creating 5,000 super new products and supporting 100 new brands with more than 100 million yuan, which shows its emphasis on super products and growth trend brands, and behind it, it attaches importance to differentiated and high-quality supply.

In terms of services, the major platforms that have returned to "users are God" have self-iterated in the process of learning from each other, and continue to increase platform benefits.

Since last year, Taobao and JD.com have jointly aligned with Pinduoduo's "refund only", in addition, Taobao has officially accessed WeChat payment, launched a free shipping channel in Xinjiang, expanded the rights and interests of 88VIP members, and JD.com has increased services such as trade-in and free door-to-door return and exchange.

This year, on the eve of 618, the pre-sale system was cancelled one after another on various platforms, also in response to users' strong calls for simplifying the promotion process and optimizing the experience.

However, for consumers, this new change is more of an answer to the platform's performance improvement, rather than a perfect score. Many netizens pointed out sharply - "Since the pre-sales have been canceled, why can't they be discounted directly?" ”

In this regard, Taobao, which has just announced the return of the "618 five-fold venue", has taken the lead in answering.

In the era when the balance of interests is collectively tilted towards buyers, in the face of users who may "defect" to friends at any time, perhaps all platforms will not be able to escape an answer.

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