Recently, the global market has ushered in a wave of "all-metal frenzy".
On Friday, gold and silver soared again, with silver prices climbing to new 11-year highs and gold prices also rebounding to record highs in April. After the epic short market in New York, copper prices on the New York and Shanghai stock exchanges hit new highs.
Over the weekend, a number of gold stores quickly raised the retail price of gold, and the current price of gold jewelry of various brands in China has reached around 740 yuan/gram, and the price of many gold stores has refreshed the previous record.
Storm
As of Friday's close, COMEX gold rose 1.44% to $2,419.8 an ounce, and London gold is now at $2,414.500 an ounce, up 1.61%. COMEX silver rose 6.36% to $31.775 an ounce, and London silver rose 6.60% to $31.490 an ounce, with silver hitting its highest since 2013.
In terms of end markets, gold jewellery prices have also been adjusted.
Overnight, the retail price of domestic brand gold jumped by as much as 12 yuan per gram, and the listing price of many gold stores once again set a new record. For example, the listing price of Chow Sang Sang has risen to 740 yuan/gram, and Chow Tai Fook, Mancaron, Chao Hongji, etc. have also listed a new high price of 739 yuan/gram.
Last week's surge in gold and silver was mainly due to weak economic data from the United States, which boosted expectations of interest rate cuts, and expectations of an early rate cut by the European Central Bank.
Data released by the United States on Wednesday showed that the headline CPI recorded 3.4% in April; Core CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month, cooling for the first time in six months, and year-on-year growth fell to the lowest level in three years.
This has come as a relief to Fed officials seeking to cut interest rates starting this year. As a result, traders have strengthened their bets that the Fed will cut rates in September and December, with the interest rate futures market pricing in a 52 basis point rate cut this year, with the CME Fed Watch tool showing a 70% chance of a rate cut starting in September.
For the next trend of gold, a number of institutions and analysts said that gold prices still have room to rise in the future, or will sprint to $2,500 / ounce.
Analysts believe that inflation concerns catalyzed by future geopolitical events and expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts may be staggered to drive gold prices higher; In addition, in the process of global multipolarization, the central bank's continued large-scale gold purchases may play a supporting role in gold prices.
Separately, Kitco's online poll showed that 58% of retail investors expect gold prices to rise next week.
Analysts are more bullish on the white bank
So far, since the beginning of this year, the price of spot gold and silver in London has risen by 17.06% and 32.43% respectively.
Although the price of precious metals has risen significantly since the beginning of this year, industry insiders are still optimistic about its future performance. And, in contrast, analysts are more optimistic about the future of silver.
In this round of precious metals market recovery, due to the continuous buying of central banks around the world, gold prices continued to refresh the record high, and the gold-silver ratio continued to widen the gap. Despite its good performance, the price of silver has yet to surpass its all-time highs. Silver has risen significantly higher than gold recently, and the gold-silver ratio has begun to shrink.
Some analysts have pointed out that silver may be at the forefront of the strongest upward cycle in history, supported by potential factors such as the widening gap between supply and demand for silver.
In addition, Phil Streible, chief market strategist at futures company Blue Line Futures, said that the strong rally in copper is spilling over to silver, which is also considered an industrial commodity and is widely used in areas such as solar cells.
From a supply and demand perspective, silver has been in short supply: from 2020 to 2023, silver supply increased by only 0.3%, while demand increased by 5.2%, and accumulated inventories decreased by 540 million ounces in just 3 years. In 2023, global mineral silver supply fell by 6.3 million ounces to 830 million ounces, down 0.7% year-on-year.
Will copper continue to skyrocket?
In recent months, the copper market has seen a long-short showdown that revolves around supply gaps and expectations of demand growth. This week, there has been a sharp shift in market forces, and the New York market has shocked the financial circle with the first short squeeze.
This week, copper prices on the New York and Shanghai stock exchanges hit new highs. Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange also recorded a 2.8% gain on Friday, approaching its all-time high in March 2022.
It is worth noting that as of May 17, the SMM imported copper concentrate spot processing fee index was reported at -1.08 US dollars / ton, and the index has turned negative for two consecutive weeks.
Huatai Securities believes that the fundamentals of the copper industry's supply slowdown and demand improvement in the second quarter may continue, and short-term copper prices may be easy to rise and fall; In addition, the optimistic market sentiment is in line with the good fundamentals and low inventories, and there is a possibility of forced positions in COMEX copper prices.
(Source: Securities Times)
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