Nearest Shenzhen
The sky is clear and the sky is clear
It's so comfortable~
But
Summer in Shenzhen
Except for the scorching sun
And the storm!
It's not
An old acquaintance's footsteps were approaching
Weather from the weekend to the beginning of next week
The style of painting is about to change!
It is expected that the South China Sea monsoon will break out around May 20, and the intensity will be weaker than usual, and Guangdong Province will soon enter the "dragon boat water" period. Affected by the low vortex and monsoon, the risk of heavy rain in Shenzhen (including Shenzhen-Shantou) is high from May 19 to 20, and the risk is highest on May 20. The test of heavy rainfall is not over!
What is "Dragon Boat Water"?
Every year around the Dragon Boat Festival, there is often a large and concentrated precipitation process in South China, and there is a custom of dragon boat racing at this time, so it is called "dragon boat water".
"Dragon Boat Water" is closely related to the South China Sea summer monsoon. After the outbreak of the summer monsoon in the South China Sea, the southwest warm and humid airflow is vigorous, and it begins to send water to the land at full power, so the water vapor is abundant and the rainfall efficiency is very high. It was very violent, and the formation was really a bit like a fairy pouring bath water, which was the last madness of the pre-flood season in South China.
In meteorology, in order to facilitate statistics, the precipitation from May 21 (around Xiaoman) to June 20 (around the summer solstice) of the Gregorian calendar is generally classified as "dragon boat water".
The power of "dragon boat water".
The accumulated rainfall during the "Dragon Boat Water" period is quite large. The strongest "dragon boat water" on record appeared in 2008, with a cumulative rainfall of nearly 1,000 mm in one month, more than 1/3 of the annual rainfall of that year, and 21 days of local heavy rain or more precipitation, of which 16 days were more than local heavy rain, and 7 days of heavy rain or even extremely heavy rain.
△ Cumulative rainfall map of dragon boat water at Shenzhen National Meteorological Station
"Dragon Boat Water" not only rains intensively, but also the intensity of short-term rain should not be underestimated! From a statistical point of view, among the top 10 in Shenzhen's 1-hour rainfall extreme, the 1st-5th places all appeared during the "Dragon Boat Water" period. During last year's "Dragon Boat Water" period (between 03:00 a.m. and 04:00 a.m. on May 23, 2023), 142.2 mm of precipitation was recorded at Luotian Reservoir Station in Yanluo Street, Bao'an District, breaking the record of one-hour cumulative rainfall in Shenzhen.
△ Sliding 1-hour rainfall extreme statistical data chart
And this weekend until the beginning of next week
Shenzhen (including Shenzhen) will be ushered in
This year's first "Dragon Boat Water"
There was a significant rainfall process!
Specific forecasts
18 May: Weather turns erratic, cloudy with intermittent (thunder) showers.
19-20 May: High risk of heavy rainfall, rainfall can reach heavy rainfall.
22-23 May: Rain abates with showers.
△Click on the image to enlarge it
It is expected that the average rainfall in Shenzhen this year will be about 350 mm, and the local rainfall will be 500 mm or more, which is close to normal. It has the following characteristics: first, the rainstorm process is concentrated, and the precipitation is mainly concentrated in 2-3 rainstorm processes; Second, heavy rain is likely to occur from early morning to morning, with high intensity and strong suddenness; Third, compared with the precipitation concentration period from April 18 to the May Day holiday, the risk of heavy precipitation during the "Dragon Boat Water" period is higher than that of strong convection, and the risk of extreme squall line is low. Fourth, the "dragon boat water" is prone to the "train effect" from south to north, and the risk is higher in the southern and eastern regions and Shenzhen-Shantou.
Risk Warning
1. The rainfall of "dragon boat water" is frequent, long-lasting, and the cumulative rainfall is large, so it is necessary to prevent secondary and derivative disasters such as heavy precipitation and geological disasters that may be caused.
2. During the "dragon boat water" period, the characteristics of night rain are obvious, which is easy to appear from early morning to morning, and the short-term rain is strong, which has a great impact on work, school and road traffic.
3. In the context of global warming, since 2023, extreme disastrous weather in Shenzhen has occurred frequently, and its unpredictability has increased. The warm area rainstorm during the "dragon boat water" period has always been a difficult point in the forecast, the predictability is low, and the forecast and early warning are difficult, please pay attention to the short-term forecast warning information issued by the meteorological station.
I heard that "like + watching"
520 will be accompanied by an object~
Information source: Shenzhen release, Shenzhen weather
Overall integration: Luohu release
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