Nearest Shenzhen
The sky is clear and the sky is clear
Warm and peaceful~
However, those days are coming to an end
A storm is approaching
It is expected that the South China Sea monsoon will break out around May 20, and the intensity will be weaker than usual, and Guangdong will soon enter the "dragon boat water". Affected by the low vortex and monsoon, the risk of heavy rain in Shenzhen (including Shenzhen-Shantou) is high on the 19th and 20th, and the risk is the highest on the 20th. The test of heavy rainfall is not over.
What is "Dragon Boat Water"?
Every year around the Dragon Boat Festival, there is often a large and concentrated precipitation process in South China, and there is a custom of dragon boat racing at this time, so it is called "dragon boat water".
"Dragon Boat Water" is closely related to the South China Sea summer monsoon. After the summer storm in the South China Sea, the warm and humid airflow from the southwest is vigorous, and it begins to "send water" to the land at full speed, so the water vapor is abundant and the rainfall efficiency is very high. It is very violent, and the formation is really a bit like a fairy pouring bath water, which is the "last madness" of the pre-flood season in South China.
In meteorology, in order to facilitate statistics, the precipitation from May 21 (around Xiaoman) to June 20 (around the summer solstice) of the Gregorian calendar is generally classified as "dragon boat water".
The power of "dragon boat water".
The cumulative rainfall during the "Dragon Boat Water" period is quite large, and the cumulative rainfall in Shenzhen during the perennial "Dragon Boat Water" period can reach 345.7 mm, accounting for 18% of the annual cumulative rainfall.
The strongest "dragon boat water" on record appeared in 2008, with a cumulative rainfall of nearly 1,000 mm in one month, more than 1/3 of the annual rainfall of that year, and 21 days of local heavy rain or more precipitation, of which 16 days were more than local heavy rain, and 7 days of heavy rain or even extremely heavy rain.
△ Cumulative rainfall map of "Dragon Boat Water" of Shenzhen National Meteorological Station
"Dragon Boat Water" not only rains intensively, but also the intensity of short-term rain should not be underestimated! From a statistical point of view, among the top 10 in Shenzhen's 1-hour rainfall extreme, the 1st-5th places all appeared during the "Dragon Boat Water" period. During last year's "Dragon Boat Water" period (from 03:00 a.m. to 04:00 a.m. on May 23, 2023), 142.2 mm of precipitation was recorded at Luotian Reservoir Station in Yanluo Street, Bao'an District, which broke the record of 1-hour cumulative rainfall in Shenzhen.
△ Sliding 1-hour rainfall extreme statistical data chart
And this weekend until the beginning of next week
Our city (including Shenzhen) will usher in the first "dragon boat water" this year
There was a significant rainfall process
Specific forecasts
18 May: Weather turns erratic, cloudy with intermittent (thunder) showers.
19th-20th: High risk of heavy rainfall, rainfall can reach heavy rainfall.
22-23: Rain weakens with showers.
△Click on the image to enlarge it
It is expected that the average rainfall of this year's "dragon boat water" in our city is about 350 mm, locally 500 mm or more, close to the normal year, with the following characteristics: first, the rainstorm process is concentrated, and the precipitation is mainly concentrated in 2-3 rainstorm processes; Second, heavy rain is likely to occur from early morning to morning, with high intensity and strong suddenness; Third, compared with the precipitation concentration period from April 18 to the May Day holiday, the risk of heavy precipitation during the "Dragon Boat Water" period is higher than that of strong convection, and the risk of extreme squall lines is lower. Fourth, the "dragon boat water" is prone to the "train effect" from south to north, and the risk is higher in the southern and eastern regions and Shenzhen-Shantou.
Risk Warning
1. The rainfall of "dragon boat water" is frequent, long-lasting, and the cumulative rainfall is large, so it is necessary to prevent secondary and derivative disasters such as heavy precipitation and geological disasters that may be caused.
2. During the "dragon boat water" period, the characteristics of night rain are obvious, which is easy to appear from early morning to morning, and the short-term rain is strong, which has a great impact on work, school and road traffic.
3. In the context of global warming, since 2023, extreme disastrous weather in our city has occurred frequently, and the unpredictability has increased; The warm area rainstorm during the "dragon boat water" period has always been a difficult point in the forecast, the predictability is low, and the forecast and early warning are difficult, please pay attention to the short-term forecast and warning information issued by the Shenzhen Meteorological Observatory.
Our city is about to enter the "dragon boat water" season
How can I defend myself? Quick look
△ Image source: Shenzhen Water
Source | Shenzhen weather subscription number
| Liu
Audit | Li Shizhao
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