The property market "king bomb" combination punch: the down payment ratio has dropped to a record low, and the lower limit of mortgage interest rates has been abolished

Finance Associated Press

2024-05-17 20:30Published on the official account of Cailianshe under Shanghai Poster Industry Group

Finance Associated Press, May 17 (Reporter Li Jie) Today, the two departments offered the "king bomb" combination of the property market, and successively issued three blockbuster favorable policies on housing loans, and the era of the loosest credit in the property market is coming.

On May 17, the People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Administration issued a notice proposing that for resident families who take out loans to purchase commercial housing, the minimum down payment ratio of commercial personal housing loans for the first house will be adjusted to no less than 15%, and the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for second housing will be adjusted to no less than 25%.

At the same time, the central bank also announced the cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate policy for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses at the national level, and lowered the interest rate on personal housing provident fund loans by 0.25 percentage points.

"The intensity of regulation this time is unprecedented and the most relaxed in the history of domestic real estate development. Its energy level exceeds all previous easing policies of the same type, which can be described as a historic property market stimulus policy with far-reaching impact. Yan Yuejin, research director of the E-House Research Institute, said.

A number of analysts said that the above new policies start from the demand side, and the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate will be at a historical low after the policy adjustment, which will greatly reduce the threshold and cost of buying a house, and the threshold for residents to buy a house and the interest cost of housing loans will drop to a historical low. In the future, the interest rate on existing mortgages is also expected to be reduced.

"It can be seen that the regulator's determination to stabilize the real estate market is very strong. The easing policy for real estate is intended to promote the recovery of the real estate industry and the economy, and from the perspective of various measures, the determination of the regulator has exceeded the market's previous expectations. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, told reporters.

The easing of the down payment ratio is a record high

The era of the lowest down payment ratio in the property market is coming.

After the two departments announced the reduction of the lower limit of the down payment ratio, the down payment ratio for the first house will not be less than 15%, and the down payment ratio for the second house will not be less than 25%.

On this basis, the provincial-level branches of the People's Bank of China and the dispatched agencies of the State Financial Supervision and Administration independently determine the lower limit of the minimum down payment ratio for commercial personal housing loans for the first and second houses in each city under their jurisdiction in accordance with the requirements of urban regulation and control and in accordance with the principle of city-specific policies.

A number of analysts told reporters that after the adjustment of the down payment ratio, it is the most relaxed down payment policy in the history of mortgage loans, and the reduction rate has set a new historical record, and the down payment ratio of the first and second homes is the lowest in history.

"The adjustment of the policy has undoubtedly lowered the threshold for buying a house, which is good for home buyers, and also allows more buyers who have insufficient funds to buy a house to obtain the qualification to get on the bus." Wang Xiaochang, chief analyst of Zhuge Data Research Center, said.

Zhang Dawei also said that guiding the actual down payment ratio and interest rate of personal housing loans to decline will help reduce the burden and cost of down payment of residents, and enhance the ability and willingness to buy houses.

It is reported that at present, many places across the country have reduced the down payment ratio to 20%, the second set to 30%, only a few cities have a higher down payment ratio, such as the first set of down payment ratio in first-tier cities are 30%, and the second set ranges from 40% to 50%.

"After the central bank lowers the lower limit of the down payment ratio, it is expected that more cities will follow up and implement it, and there is also room and expectation for lowering in first-tier cities to further reduce the threshold for home buyers." Chen Wenjing, director of market research at the China Index Research Institute, said.

Zhang Dawei also believes that in the future, first-tier cities such as Beijing are also expected to significantly reduce the proportion of down payments and mortgage interest rates.

In fact, since the beginning of this year, the performance of the real estate market has not been as expected, the color of gold and silver is insufficient, whether it is a new house or a second-hand house, the volume and price have fallen, the owners have exchanged price for volume, the market sentiment has fallen to a trough, and the industry confidence is not strong.

"According to past experience, the loosening of central policies has a greater effect on market confidence than local policies. The new policy can stimulate some rigid demand and improve the customer base for the first time to enter the market, boost the activity of the market, and promote the accelerated improvement of the housing market in the short term. In the medium term, the current income expectation of the residential market is weak, dragging down the release of housing demand, and in the medium term, it is necessary to rely on the improvement of the economic employment environment. Wang Xiaochang said.

Mortgage rates are expected to fall below 3%

After this policy adjustment, not only will the down payment ratio for home purchases be the lowest in history, but the mortgage interest rate is also expected to fall to a historical low.

In terms of provident fund, the central bank issued a notice saying that the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans will be lowered by 0.25 percentage points, and the interest rate of the first set of personal housing provident fund loans for less than 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years will be adjusted to 2.35% and 2.85% respectively, and the interest rate of the second set of personal housing provident fund loans for less than 5 years (including 5 years) and more than 5 years will be adjusted to not less than 2.775% and 3.325% respectively.

According to the reporter's calculations, if the provident fund loan amount is 1 million yuan, the loan is 30 years, and the repayment method of equal principal and interest, after the interest rate of the first home loan of the provident fund is reduced, the monthly payment will be reduced by 135 yuan, and the monthly payment will be reduced by 48,500 yuan for 30 years.

At the same time, the two departments also canceled the lower limit of the first and second home loan interest rate policies at the national level, and gave the right to regulate the lower limit of the mortgage interest rate to the local government.

"This means that the central government no longer sets a unified limit on commercial loan interest rates, and all localities can make their own adjustments according to their own business conditions." In the current loan background, the commercial loan interest rate will further decline, and the follow-up mortgage interest rate is expected to fall below 3%, falling to the lowest level in history.

"From a national point of view, except for a few first-tier and second-tier cities, the minimum first set of interest rates for most housing loans has entered the era of 3.25." Zhang Dawei said.

According to data released by the central bank, as of the end of March, 75 of the country's 343 cities (prefecture level and above) have lowered the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate, and 64 have canceled the lower limit. According to the monitoring of the China Index Institute, more than 20 cities announced that the lower limit of the first home loan interest rate will be phased out from April; In May, Nanjing and Hefei successively announced the cancellation of the lower limit of the interest rate for the first home loan.

"At present, some banks in some cities have implemented the first home loan interest rate at about 3.1%, the central bank has canceled the lower limit of the national mortgage interest rate, and the policy is favorable to extend to the second house, it is expected that more cities will reduce the mortgage interest rate, and the space for the reduction of the mortgage interest rate in the first-tier and core second-tier cities is also expected to open." Chen Wenjing said.

According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the overall sales price of commercial housing continued to decline in April, while the decline further expanded, and the trend of "exchanging price for volume" accelerated. In April, the average price of new homes in 70 cities decreased by 0.58% month-on-month, an increase of 0.25 percentage points from the previous month, and the average price of second-hand homes decreased by 0.94% month-on-month, an increase of 0.41 percentage points from the previous month.

In addition, judging from the housing price index of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 cities in April, the number of cities with month-on-month increases in housing prices was 6, a decrease of 5 cities from the previous month; The remaining 64 cities all fell month-on-month, accounting for about 91%; Second-hand housing still only 1 city rose month-on-month, and the remaining 69 cities decreased month-on-month.

"The adjustment of the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate by the central bank and the State Administration of Financial Supervision reflects the determination of the regulatory authorities to stabilize the real estate market. The policy further lowers the down payment threshold and the cost of buying a house for residents, which is expected to boost residents' willingness to buy houses, and if core cities accelerate the follow-up of relevant measures, it will have a greater driving effect on the market. Chen Wenjing said.

"With the gradual implementation of various supportive policies, as well as the enhancement of policy implementation and execution, the intensity of destocking in the property market will be greater and greater in the future. The relationship between market supply and demand will gradually improve in the next 1-2 years, and the property market will enter a relatively healthy development track. Zhang Hongwei, founder of Jingjian Consulting, believes.

(Financial Associated Press reporter Li Jie)