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△National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
People's Voice of the World, May 16, Beijing Express In the blink of an eye, the traditional 24 solar terms of "Lixia" have arrived. On the national weather stage this week (May 13-May 19), in the opinion of experts, the temperature in many places in the north will hit new highs one after another and may break records. The rainfall in the south will show a trend of less and then more.
△National Severe Convective Weather Forecast (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Experts said that the monitoring data showed that the convection in Shanxi, Hebei and Henan was developing this evening (16th), and thunderstorms and strong winds had occurred locally. According to the latest meteorological data analysis, from tonight to tomorrow (17th), the convection will continue to advance to the southeast. Therefore, thunderstorms, strong winds or hail may also occur in Shandong and northern Jiangsu and Anhui, and local short-term heavy rainfall.
△National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
According to experts, judging from the situation forecast, the middle troposphere is behind the cold trough and has a very strong dry and cold air flow (* northwest airflow); At the same time, there is southwest warmth and humidity at low altitude. Therefore, judging by such a configuration, it is prone to thunderstorms, strong winds or hail. In Yunnan and Guizhou, there is also convective potential in the atmosphere. Moreover, considering that the water vapor conditions are good, there may be short-term heavy rainfall, and thunderstorms, strong winds or hail cannot be ruled out locally.
△Precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Experts believe that statistics show that from last night (15th) to today, there were scattered heavy rains in Guangxi and Yunnan, and local heavy rains. And tomorrow there will be rain in the southwest; Moreover, there are some small areas of heavy rain in Tibet, Yunnan and Guizhou, and local heavy rain. However, from the 18th, the warm and humid airflow strengthened significantly. From the 18th to the 21st, there will be another round of heavy rainfall in the south. The core rainfall area is expected to be in southern China. The heaviest rainfall period is currently in Guangxi, mainly from the night of the 18th to the 19th; Guangdong mainly on the 19th to the 20th.
△National precipitation forecast map (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
It is worth noting that experts further explained that on the whole, there were heavy to heavy rains in central and eastern Guizhou, most of southern China, and southern Jiangnan from the 18th to the 21st, and heavy rains in parts of the central, eastern and southern coasts of Guangxi, central and western Guangdong, and coastal areas. The cumulative rainfall in the above areas is 40~80 mm, 100~180 mm in some areas, and more than 250 mm locally. The above-mentioned areas will also be accompanied by short-term heavy precipitation, local thunderstorms and strong winds and other strong convective weather, and the maximum hourly precipitation can reach 50~80 mm.
△National Severe Convective Weather Outlook (Central Meteorological Observatory/Fa)
Industry insiders stressed that it is not difficult to find that the situation is also not difficult to find, as experts say, after next Tuesday (21st), the rain in South China will weaken significantly. In addition, from the 19th to the 20th, a round of rain may also occur in Northeast China and North China due to the eastward movement of cold air to the south. At that time, Jilin, Liaoning to Hebei, Shanxi and other places, before the arrival of rainfall, the temperature is high, and there is convective energy; Therefore, people in relevant areas should be alert to possible severe convective weather. (Editor-in-charge/Xiangyu)
*Editor's Note:
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