There is a need to increase medical facilities for the elderly in the third ring road
Outside the Third Ring Road, there is a need for basic education and community business
The configuration of the newly launched public server package will be adjusted as needed
……
Next 5 years
The population of 17 precincts has increased and decreased
Public service facilities will increase or decrease in line with population changes
How can we accurately predict demographic change?
How does the demand for public service facilities come from?
Jinniu District's "public service supporting map" has something to say!
The above is one of the results of Jinniu District's pilot project of "overall optimization of the planning and layout of public service facilities and effective supply" in the city. Its core is to appropriately advance the planning and layout and accurately allocate public services according to the future population bearing and actual demand. The reporter learned that under the guidance of the Chengdu Municipal Planning and Natural Resources Bureau, the Jinniu District Party Committee organized 16 industry authorities and 13 streets to set up a special work class, and fully relied on the big data of the "Smart Chengdu" platform to focus on the construction of a 15-minute public service circle. The significance of this pilot project lies in the fact that it solves the structural contradictions in the past, such as "planning lags behind the trend of population development, and the supply of public services does not match the growing diversified needs of the masses".
1. According to the population bearing and actual demand
Public services are matched "on demand".
"I heard that it will be put into use at the end of the year, and then the elderly in my family will be able to come here to care for the elderly." On May 15, in Shengda Heng Street, Xihua Street, Jinniu District, looking at a building in front of her that had been capped and was being renovated, Ms. Li, a nearby resident, said with anticipation.
The nine-storey building will house a modern elderly care service center with more than 100 beds to meet the needs of nearby residents. Across the street from this building under construction, the new Chengdu Shisun Street Primary School (Shengda) campus was just put into use last year.
"Schools and elderly care centers are all public service supporting facilities that are clearly marked on our public service supporting map. The commissioning of these two public service facilities can just fill the gap in public service facilities in the upper area. Pointing to the public service supporting map (Xihua unit) in his hand, He Shanshan, chief of the detailed planning management and urban renewal section of the Jinniu District Planning and Self-Administration Bureau, told reporters.
The reporter noted that on this schematic map, the number of public service facilities such as community management, basic education, medical care and elderly care, cultural activities, sports, commercial services, municipal transportation, and green space in the area by 2028 is clearly marked. Judging from the data, within 5 years, the area still needs to supplement community housing and community pension institutions. At the same time, there will be surplus degrees, farmers' markets, etc. to be vacated.
How does the demand for public service facilities come from? What is the guiding value of such a clear "public service supporting map"?
This has to be said that Jinniu District has taken the lead in carrying out an exploration in the city - Jinniu District has carried out pilot work around "overall optimization of public service facilities, planning and layout and effective supply". The pilot focuses on the construction of a 15-minute public service circle, guided by population bearing and demand satisfaction, and promotes the effective connection and integration of the actual needs of citizens, project planning and layout, and public service supply in the public service area. "One of the biggest features of this pilot is that it accurately combines demographic trends." The relevant person in charge of the Jinniu District Planning Bureau said.
2. Introduce model calculus
Accurately predict demographic trends
The population of an area is often changing, so how can we accurately predict population changes?
According to the relevant person in charge of the Jinniu District Planning and Self-Administration Bureau, in practice, Jinniu District first combs multi-source data, unifies the caliber of population data at the beginning of the period, and summarizes and improves the "micro-grid real" population data of each street by the district urban transportation center, and actively connects with the municipal urban transportation center, comprehensively compares the census data of the statistical department and the "one standard and three real" data of the public security system, comprehensively considers the comprehensiveness, effectiveness and availability of population data, and achieves multi-source data integration to avoid "counting out multiple doors".
Secondly, the whole region should participate in scientifically quantifying the influencing factors of population change. In the number of births and deaths, we have firmly grasped the key factors that affect the increase in the number of in-migration and out-migration machinery, such as land supply, housing supply, demolition and reconstruction, and industrial layout, so that the information that affects population change has not been omitted.
In addition, Jinniu District has also established a population prediction model to predict the future permanent population by district and year by year, and provide a scientific basis for public service decision-making through big data.
The forecast results show that in the next five years, the permanent population of the district will increase by 51,400, an increase of 4.14%, and the total will reach 1,292,800, and the industrial population is expected to increase by 19,700, an increase of 3%; The school-age population is expected to increase by 6,200, an increase of 3.88%, which requires us to provide more supporting facilities for new citizens and more places for school-age children. The model shows that the population aged 60 and above in the next five years is expected to increase by 48,700, an increase of 3.92%, and the degree of aging will reach 23.76%. The relevant person in charge of Jinniu District gave an example.
The reporter learned that the Taurus "public service supporting map" combined with regional characteristics, based on the administrative boundaries of 13 streets in the district, with a 15-minute walking distance as the service radius, and took into account factors such as the boundary line, school district demarcation, and facility construction and management, so as to ensure that the service population of each district unit is controlled at about 5-100,000, so that the supply of public services is highly matched with the population distribution.
317 public service area units
The focus will be on the layout of these "one old and one small" facilities
"Under the guidance of the Municipal Planning and Natural Resources Bureau, Jinniu District has adjusted and delineated 17 public service area units from the five dimensions of population size, administrative management, land and object boundaries, planning and management, and overall consideration of administrative management, area division, facility construction and management factors. In parallel with the population projection, we have also carried out research on the matching degree of the layout of basic education, childcare, medical care, and elderly care facilities with the needs of the 'old and young' population. During the interview, the relevant person in charge introduced that on the basis of a comprehensive and accurate grasp of population trends, public needs, and shortcomings of public services, the Taurus District Industry has formulated a plan for the construction of public service facilities in the next five years, and has targeted to promote the re-optimization of planning and layout, the re-precision of service supply, and the re-co-ordination of resource allocation, so as to accelerate the construction of a high-quality, balanced, efficient and convenient 15-minute public service circle:
●The 17 public service units in the district will plan and implement 18 basic security items, 6 functional improvement items, and characteristic "6+N" items such as community nursery schools, community canteens, and schools for the elderly; ●Adapt to the future changes in the population and structure of the whole district, do a good job in optimizing preschool education resources, convert some private kindergartens into nursery schools, and set up vacant places for nursery places, and the vacancy rate of more than 50% of private kindergartens will transform and develop in the direction of old-age care and childcare; ●Strengthen the collectivization of education, increase the educational resources of junior and senior high schools in an orderly manner, and successively promote the transformation of primary schools with insufficient students into secondary schools, so as to cope with the arrival of the peak population in junior and senior high schools. It is planned to give priority to the construction of Tianhui Town, Jinquan and other middle schools with large shortage of places within three years, promote the quality and efficiency improvement and brand development of 29 primary and secondary schools, and focus on solving the problem of short supply of hot primary schools such as Shisun Street and Chadianzi; ●In view of the trend of "accelerating growth year by year and deepening the degree of aging" of the elderly population, highlight the focus of home and community elderly care services, further promote the construction of home care beds, age-appropriate transformation, and the installation of intelligent home equipment, and strive to improve the service level of socialized elderly care institutions, and plan to build 13 street comprehensive service complexes for the elderly within this year, upgrade 16 community "one-stop" elderly care service stations, and add 42 community embedded elderly care service points; ●Promote the organic embedding of public service facilities such as universities for the elderly, community canteens, and children's recreation into the 15-minute public service circle according to local conditions, so as to meet the differentiated needs of citizens with refined public service supply;
During an interview in the Xihua Street Area on the 15th, the reporter learned that in 2024, many of the 49 new public service facilities that have been adjusted and controlled are already under construction for the future key population inflow areas such as the Lujiaqiao area outside the Third Ring Road......
According to the implementation plan, it is expected that by 2028, the implementation rate of public services in the 17 districts and units in Jinniu District will increase from the current 83% to 91%, and the total number of public services will increase from 1,073 to 1,199, further improving the accessibility of public services; For the key groups of "one old and one young", 37 new primary and secondary schools and kindergartens have been built, 35 outdoor playgrounds for children have been added, and 40 community complexes (including 33 elderly care facilities and 15 health service centers) have been planned and constructed, and the population matching degree has been further optimized; 40,000 square meters of community cultural activity centers have been added, 13 exemplary community happy canteens have been built, community commercial formats have been continuously enriched, and the coverage rate of park greening service radius has increased from 82.6% to 90%, further enhancing the convenience of life......
Expert Comments: Professor Lv Chenzhong of Sichuan Open University
"Jinniu District accurately allocates public services according to the future population bearing and actual demand, and this pilot provides solid support for the overall optimization of the planning and layout of public service facilities and effective supply." Lv Chenzhong, a professor at Sichuan Open University, gave a positive evaluation to the release of the "public service supporting map" by Jinniu District. He believes that the pilot project in Jinniu District has solved the structural contradictions in the past, such as "planning lags behind the trend of population development, and the supply of public services does not match the growing diversified needs of the masses", which is conducive to optimizing the allocation of resources and promoting the construction of an all-age friendly society, which is an important exploration of the modern governance of the central urban area of the megacity.
Chengdu Daily Jinguan News