(Image source: Photo.com)
Recently, Liang Jianzhang, co-founder of Trip.com Group and a demographic expert
Interviewed for his new book "Innovation".He pointed out that China can indeed compete with the United States in areas such as Internet robots, thanks to China's huge population size and complete industrial chain. Because the size of the Chinese population is larger than that of the United States, and the United States has the ability to attract global talent, a country's opening up and population size are very important.
However, he also pointed out that if a Chinese family has only one child, at a rate of halving per generation, then after two generations, the Chinese population will drop to one-quarter of the current level, and it will not be a country with a large population, and it will be at a disadvantage in the world's most cutting-edge scientific and technological competition.
Liang Jianzhang said that we are still relatively optimistic about China's science and technology in the case of the United States, because China's population is large, and the industrial chain has enough scale to do it by itself, but if it is a country with a small population, it will be easy to be stuck.
According to public data, in 2023, the number of births in mainland China will be 9.02 million, the birth rate will be 6.4 per thousand, and the natural population growth rate of 20 provinces will be negative.
According to the China Development Report 2023, China's birth rate is likely to remain low in the future, with the number of births falling by about one million per decade. If this trend continues, China's population will shrink rapidly in the coming decades, affecting the country's overall competitiveness.
To address this challenge, Liang suggested that the government should step up efforts to support childbirth. He believes that although many local governments have introduced childcare subsidies, these subsidies are still far from enough compared to the high cost of childcare. He suggested that the government should allocate 2% of GDP to subsidize childbirth, which would help reduce the cost of family childbirth and increase the fertility rate. In addition, he suggested that the government should increase the amount of family birth subsidies and give more cash subsidies to two-child families and multi-child families.
Liang's proposals aim to alleviate China's aging population by increasing fertility. He believes that these measures are expected to increase China's fertility rate by about 20%, thereby effectively alleviating the pressure of an aging population. This will help maintain the size of China's population and, in turn, its position in the global technology race.
At present, many cities such as Shandong, Hainan and Hohhot have issued childcare subsidies.
Looking back at the current situation of the population in mainland China:
The number of newborns in China fluctuates and decreases
According to data from the China Statistical Yearbook, between 2011 and 2020, the number of newborns in mainland China showed a downward trend each year, and the birth rate also continued to decline. In 2011, there were 17.903 million newborns in mainland China, with a birth rate of 1.327%. As the willingness of couples of appropriate age to have children decreases, the number of newborns each year is also decreasing. By 2020, the number of newborns in the mainland dropped to 12.031 million, and the birth rate was 0.852%. In 2021, the number of newborns was 10.62 million, and the birth rate was 0.752%, both of which were the lowest in the past 10 years.
There is also a downward trend in the number of marriages
According to the data released by the Ministry of Civil Affairs, from 2015 to 2020, the number of registered marriage couples in the mainland continued to show a downward trend, and in 2020, the number of registered marriage couples in the country was 8.131 million, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%.
There are three main reasons for fear of marriage: constraints, feelings and parenting problems
In the survey of the reasons for marriage phobia, the top 5 can be summarized into three major fears: post-marital constraint problems, relationship problems, and parenting problems.
Among the surveyed unmarried groups, about 44% (average), 56% and 42% respectively believe that relationship problems, postmarital restraint problems and childcare problems are the main reasons for their fear of marriage.
Proportion and forecast of China's elderly population aged 60 and above
As of 2022, the number of people over 60 years old in mainland China has reached 280 million, accounting for 19.8% of the total population. Wang Haidong, director of the Department of Aging of the National Health Commission, said in September 2022 that by 2035, the elderly population aged 60 and above in the mainland will exceed 400 million, accounting for more than 30% of the total population, which means that the mainland will enter a stage of severe aging. By around 2050, the size and proportion of the elderly population, the old-age dependency ratio and the social dependency ratio will reach peaks one after another.
The decline in fertility has led to a decrease in the number of newborns and an increase in the proportion of the elderly population, which in turn has exacerbated the trend of population aging. This will bring huge pressure to social pension, medical care, welfare and other aspects, and increase the social burden. Population is one of the important drivers of economic growth, and low fertility will reduce labor and consumption demand, thus affecting the development potential of the economy. In addition, labor shortages can also lead to higher labor costs, affecting the competitiveness and productivity of enterprises.
On December 11, 2023, Ren Zeping and a number of experts jointly issued a document pointing out that vigorously issuing birth subsidies will help stimulate fertility and expand domestic demand. According to preliminary estimates, about 1-3 trillion subsidies are needed, including measures such as providing maternity allowances, maternity leave, and childcare services.
Huang Wenzheng, an expert at the Yuwa Population Think Tank and an invited senior researcher at the Globalization Think Tank, said that the sooner the fertility rate is restored to replacement level, the better, and that it is possible to increase the fertility rate, as long as its importance is recognized. He stressed that China has a unique advantage on the issue of population, and that the place of our time in history will depend on our role in the issue of population.
Prospective Economist APP Information Group
For more research and analysis of this industry, please refer to the "Analysis Report on Market Prospect and Investment Strategic Planning of China's Maternal and Child Industry" by Qianzhan Industry Research Institute
At the same time, the Prospective Industry Research Institute also provides solutions such as industrial big data, industrial research reports, industrial planning, park planning, industrial investment, industrial mapping, smart investment promotion system, industry status certificate, IPO consulting/fundraising and investment feasibility study, and specialized and special new small giant declaration. To quote the content of this article in any public information disclosure such as prospectus and annual report, formal authorization from Qianzhan Industry Research Institute is required.
More in-depth industry analysis is available in the [Prospective Economist APP], and you can also communicate and interact with 500+ economists/senior industry researchers. More enterprise data, enterprise information, and enterprise development are all in the [Qichamao APP], the most cost-effective and most comprehensive enterprise query platform.