Author/Zhongshan Comprehensive Experimental Station of National Shrimp and Crab Industry Technology System
Wang Haojie, Huang Haijin, Liu Donghui
Want to predict shrimp prices in advance? Want to avoid falling into a vortex of low prices? Follow the pace and find out how he used data and strategies to decisively sell all the white shrimp before the Spring Festival, avoiding the dilemma of the price crashing after the year.
1. When the price of shrimp was high, he decisively emptied the shrimp stock before the year
At a time when everyone is looking forward to the high price of white shrimp during the Spring Festival, General Manager Wang Haojie has made a decisive decision: before the Spring Festival in 2024, all specifications of white shrimp in the Haishengyuan shrimp factory breeding base in Leizhou City will be sold. This decision made the breeding base extremely busy before the holiday, and at the same time, it also made many people in the industry feel puzzled.
In previous years, the period around the Spring Festival is the best time for shrimp prices throughout the year, and the larger the size, the better the price, and farmers are accustomed to selling prawns at this time to obtain higher returns. In addition, the price of shrimp before this year was not very ideal, and the size of most of the pond shrimp in the market is not large, many farmers still choose to breed large sizes, increase production and hope to sell at a better price during the Spring Festival. However, Mr. Wang's strategy is obviously different, he chose to sell the shrimp before the holiday, what are the considerations behind this decision?
The price of white shrimp pond before the Chinese New Year in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Data source: Haida Agriculture and Animal Husbandry
2. Thunderbolt on a sunny day! After the Chinese New Year, the price plummeted!
The price of white shrimp pond before the Chinese New Year in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Data source: Haida Agriculture and Animal Husbandry
After the Spring Festival, the price of white shrimp market unexpectedly fell by 5-6 yuan/catty, which shocked and confused many farmers. For many years, around the Spring Festival has been the peak period for white shrimp prices, but this year the situation is very different. Taking the 40-head white shrimp in Zhanjiang as an example, the price on February 1 was 21 yuan/jin, but by the day before Chinese New Year's Eve (that is, February 8), the price had dropped to 18 yuan/jin. What is even more surprising is that by February 29, the price fell further to 15 yuan per catty. This price is not only lower than before the holiday, but even lower than the breeding cost of 16-17 yuan/kg of white shrimp, and the trend of price decline is still continuing.
According to the price data of nearly 60,000 white shrimp ponds systematically collected by "Haida Agriculture and Animal Husbandry" since 2018, the price of white shrimp in Zhanjiang, Guangdong from January to April 2024 and the trend in 2023 are as follows, and the price of white shrimp this year is significantly lower than that of the same period last year.
Price Curve of 40 White Shrimp in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province (2023-2024)
Why did Mr. Wang choose to sell all the white shrimp before the Spring Festival?
How did he accurately foresee the sharp drop in prices after the holiday?
What's the secret to his predictions?
Haida Agriculture and Animal Husbandry conducted an exclusive interview with Mr. Wang to gain an in-depth understanding of the story behind his decision-making.
3. Accurately predicting the market in advance, he successfully avoided the price trough
01 The traditional market law that is deeply rooted in the hearts of the people
In the long-term experience of white shrimp farmers in Zhanjiang area, the fluctuation of market conditions shows a certain regularity. It is generally believed that there will be two peak periods of white shrimp prices in a year: one is from the 10th day of the lunar month to the Qingming Festival of the following year, and the other is a small peak during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival. Other than that, white shrimp prices are usually lower at other times. This pattern has been proven over the years, and although there are small fluctuations, farmers have generally accepted this periodic price movement.
The price curve of white shrimp provided by "Haida Agriculture and Animal Husbandry" further confirms the above law. Looking at the data from 2021 to 2022, we can clearly see that this traditional market law is still in play. If we extend the timeline from 2018 to 2021, we can more fully understand the cyclical changes in the head price of 40 white shrimp ponds in Zhanjiang through continuous price curves. This kind of in-depth data analysis provides a solid foundation for Mr. Wang to accurately predict the market situation 2-3 months in advance.
Annual Tangtou Price Curve of 40 White Shrimp in Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province (2021-2022)
Price curve of 40 white shrimp ponds in Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province (2018-2021)
Year 022024: The year when the traditional market law expires
The pace of market seedlings has slowed down
In Zhanjiang, Guangdong, farmers usually build winter sheds and release seedlings from October to November to improve the stability of farming. However, when Mr. Wang started to release seedlings from the end of September to the beginning of October 2023, he found that the overall pace of seedling release in the market was slower than in previous years, and at the same time, the number of unsold prawns in the market was relatively large, and the storage of ponds was huge.
The breeding area of "winter shed + small shed" has reached a new high
In 2023, the area of shed culture remained stable, but the area of shed culture in South China increased sharply. From about 2-30,000 in 2022 to 60,000 in 2023, it is expected to reach 100,000 in 2024, almost doubling every year, and in just two years, the number of sheds has increased by 7-80,000.
Summary: Combined with the amount and rhythm of seedlings and the significant increase in the breeding area of "winter shed + shed", it indicates that a large number of white shrimp will be listed during the Spring Festival in 2024, which may lead to a sharp drop in market prices and break the market law of previous years.
03 Revealing the secret market forecast: Mr. Wang's three major decision-making magic weapons
With the following three information, Mr. Wang can predict the profit potential of the breeding at the seedling stage, so as to make more accurate adjustments in the breeding strategy.
Key information on the amount of seedlings released in the market
An in-depth understanding of the volume of seedlings in the local market and its pace is essential to predict price changes in the next 2-3 months. The amount of seedlings released directly determines the potential upper limit of aquaculture production, and the speed of the pace of seedling release reveals the time window for the possible market of white shrimp. Mr. Wang used the internal information network of Haid Group to accurately grasp the seedling release data in Zhanjiang area, which provided a solid foundation for predicting the market.
Dynamic analysis of prawn stock in the market
Since 2023, Haid Group has explored a set of dynamic analysis and prediction methods for shrimp stocks, and formed a high-frequency forecasting tool that is updated weekly. Mr. Wang used this tool to not only monitor the changes in the storage of different specifications of white shrimp in Zhanjiang City, Guangdong Province in real time, but also gain insight into the storage situation of the white shrimp in Guangxi (including Beihai, Qinzhou and Fangchenggang), especially the storage of prawns. More importantly, the tool can predict the trend of pond storage 1-2 months in advance, which provides valuable forward-looking information for Mr. Wang's decision-making.
Prawn storage ponds and forecasts in Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province (2022-2023)
Mainstream specifications of white shrimp in the market
"Haida Agriculture and Animal Husbandry" has established a dense white shrimp pond price collection network through extensive layout in major white shrimp breeding areas in China and key overseas breeding countries/regions. The network enables Haida Agriculture and Animal Husbandry to plot a dynamic curve of global white shrimp prices on a weekly basis, providing farmers with a tool to quickly understand the market situation.
Mr. Wang uses the tool of "Haida Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Global White Shrimp Dynamic Price Curve", which can not only grasp the price of mainstream white shrimp in Zhanjiang, Guangdong, but also obtain similar information in Guangxi (including Beihai, Qinzhou and Fangchenggang) with one click. This in-depth market analysis provides Mr. Wang with comprehensive market insights and helps him make more informed decisions on breeding strategies.
04Accurate prediction, strategy first
The forecast results are highly consistent with the actual market performance. Based on the in-depth analysis of the above three key dynamic information, Mr. Wang made the following predictions 2-3 months in advance:
The supply of prawns in the market was tight a year ago
On the eve of the Spring Festival, the general size of white shrimp in Zhanjiang is 40-50 heads, which has not yet reached the best selling standard, resulting in a shortage of large-size white shrimp available for sale in the market. At the same time, the white shrimp cultivated by Mr. Wang has reached a large size and is suitable for marketing.
Prices will face downward pressure after the year
If the market is sluggish before the year, farmers may choose to sell at a better price during the Spring Festival, which will lead to a large number of prawns on the market after the year, which is very likely to trigger a sharp drop in prices.
Based on these predictions, Mr. Wang quickly adjusted his sales strategy, abandoning the traditional plan of selling during and after the Spring Festival, and instead went all out to empty all the shrimp stocks before the year. As the time of sale approaches, Mr. Wang keeps abreast of the latest developments in white shrimp breeding and sales through close communication with the feed business team, shrimp trucks, shrimp trucks and aquaculture peers, and constantly verifies and adjusts the forecast. The results proved that the price of white shrimp did fall by 5-6 yuan/kg after the Spring Festival, which was completely consistent with Mr. Wang's prediction.
4. The new strategy of breeding in the era of low profits, information insight determines success or failure
01Information-driven farming decisions
With the continuous growth of the white shrimp aquaculture industry, the total amount of white shrimp farming in the country increased significantly from 2003 to 2022, reaching 2.1 million tons in 2022, with an annual growth rate of 6%. The progress of aquaculture technology and the increase of yield per mu indicate that the days of "a pond of shrimp success, many years of worry-free income" have become a thing of the past. At present, the white shrimp aquaculture industry has generally entered the era of low profits, farmers generally realize that in addition to improving the breeding technology, the fluctuation of market prices, the storage of ponds in the main breeding areas and the changes in the consumer market are all crucial to the success of aquaculture.
National White Shrimp Farming Total (2003-2022) Data source: Fishery Yearbook
Change curve of yield per mu in Guangdong (2003-2022) Data source: Fishery Yearbook
02 Prediction is king, and the timing is grasped
In this context, if farmers can accurately predict the changes in market conditions and adjust the timing and breeding planning of shrimp in time, they can seize the opportunity in the fierce market competition. The comprehensiveness and forward-looking nature of the information has become the key factor that determines whether farmers can survive and succeed in the era of low profits.
03 Cultivate internal strength and move forward steadily
In the face of changes in the external environment such as the increase in the amount of imported white shrimp and the rise in domestic labor costs, the core competitiveness of farmers is to improve production efficiency and output, so as to balance the increase in breeding costs. Focusing on the improvement of internal management and technology, that is, "cultivating internal strength", is the fundamental strategy of farmers to cope with market changes. By optimizing the breeding process and adopting advanced breeding technology and management methods, farmers can achieve dual advantages in cost control and product quality, so as to move forward steadily in the era of low profits.
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