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Recently, the topic of advanced packaging can be said to be a solid fire.
The reason is that Nvidia and AMD have recently directly contracted TSMC's advanced packaging production capacity this year and next, and the main logic behind it is still optimistic about the growth of chip demand brought by AI processors in the future. According to the analysis of professional institutions, the compound annual growth rate of AI processors is expected to reach 50% in the next five years. Such high growth, to be honest, has made most investors excited.
Packaging technology is arguably one of the key steps in semiconductor manufacturing, connecting chips to external circuits, providing protection and heat dissipation. The value of the packaging link accounts for 80%-85% of the entire semiconductor packaging and testing part, and its importance is self-evident.
In the field of packaging, packaging materials are often a link that is more likely to be paid attention to, although different materials play different roles, but ultimately for the packaging technology to become more advanced.
So today, let's walk into the world of packaging materials together to see if this track has investment value.
First, the recovery is in an instant
Since the beginning of this year, with the continuous emergence of innovative terminals such as AI PCs and MRs, the demand in the field of advanced packaging has shown a rising tide. After all, in the post-Moore's Law era, advanced packaging has become one of the most critical breakthroughs to improve the overall performance of the system.
According to the analysis of professional institutions, the global market size of advanced packaging in three years will be 47.5 billion US dollars, accounting for more than half of the entire packaging market, with a compound growth rate of more than 8% in the past five years.
The performance of the industry will speak for itself. For example, Changdian Technology (600584), one of the leading companies, saw its operating income and net profit attributable to the parent company increase by 17% and 23% year-on-year respectively in the first quarter of this year. This is also the first time that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company has achieved quarter-on-quarter growth after declining for five consecutive quarters, and finally walked out of the dark abyss.
Advanced packaging layout
In addition, the performance of another leading Tongfu Microelectronics (002156) is even more explosive. Net profit attributable to the parent company increased by more than 20 times. It has applied for more than 1,500 related patents at home and abroad, and has built a "moat" with technology investment. You know, in the past two years, the company's net profit has just fallen sharply year-on-year, and it has suffered a waterloo. The current performance growth is also regarded by many investors as the return of the king.
Changes in the share price of Tongfu Microelectronics
The overall recovery of advanced packaging has also promoted the volume and price rise of packaging materials and other subdivisions.
2. Break the blockade
In the packaging materials, there is a saying that the packaging substrate is the most important source of cost in the material, mainly playing the role of support, heat dissipation and so on.
Moreover, the substrate is also an important node for independent breakthroughs, such as the relatively high-end ABF carrier board (including its upstream materials), and the supply market is mainly monopolized by manufacturers in Taiwan, Japan and South Korea. It is mainly because of the insufficient production capacity of its core materials and the complexity of the process. ABF carrier boards are mainly used in high-end computing chips such as CPUs and GPUs.
Percentage of the cost of the packaging substrate
For example, the ABF film of the ABF carrier board is mainly monopolized by the Japanese player Ajinomoto. In recent years, emerging applications such as autonomous driving and cloud computing have put forward higher requirements for processors, and ABF carrier boards also have a relatively broad market space, according to the analysis of professional institutions, the demand for ABF carrier boards will increase from 2.8 billion pieces three years ago to more than 4 billion pieces this year.
3. Dreams come true
In addition to substrates, important encapsulation materials are encapsulation materials, of which epoxy molding materials account for about 90%. In this segment, the current domestic epoxy molding material market accounts for less than 30%, and high-end epoxy molding material products are basically monopolized by Japanese players. High-end substrates face the same problem.
Domestic players are more focused on BT carrier boards, and its manufacturing process is relatively simple. But it can't be said that domestic players don't want to forge ahead and only stay in the low-end market of the Red Sea.
For example, Guangzhou Guangxin, a subsidiary of Shennan Circuit (002916), is mainly positioned to replace the localization of high-end ABF substrates, and the output value is expected to reach more than 6 billion yuan after full production, which is expected to open the company's second growth curve in the next three years. In addition, Xingsen Technology (002436) focuses on the introduction of new ABF products and new customers this year to prepare for the volume of ABF carrier boards in 2025.
However, we can look forward to whether the dream of a wave of Xingsen Technology on the ABF carrier board can be reflected in reality next year.
In addition to existing substrate technology, according to Intel's public disclosure, glass substrates are an important future direction for the entire semiconductor packaging field, which can significantly improve electrical and mechanical performance. And there are people who want to eat crabs, such as Apple, one of the technology leaders, and is actively discussing with a number of suppliers to apply glass substrate technology to chip development.
The development trend of substrate technology
On the other hand, in China, JCET has been developing glass substrate packaging projects, and it is expected that mass production will be achieved in the next two years.
For epoxy molding materials, the high-performance epoxy molding materials produced by Huahai Chengke (688535) have gradually broken the monopoly position of foreign manufacturers. Its granular epoxy molding compound (GMC) can be used in HBM's encapsulation, and the related products have been verified by customers. It seems that it is close to improving its own performance.
Therefore, although we have to admit that foreign manufacturers are now dominant, the author believes that domestic players have been on the road of independent breakthroughs.
Note: This article does not constitute any investment advice. The stock market is risky, and you need to be cautious when entering the market. There is no harm in buying and selling.