With the continuous sharp decline in international oil prices, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window has opened again. According to authoritative estimates, at 24 o'clock on May 15, domestic gasoline and diesel prices will be sharply reduced, and the decline is expected to exceed 18-21 cents/liter, setting a record for the largest single decline in 2024. This round of heavy oil price adjustment will bring the price of No. 92 gasoline at some gas stations back to the "7 yuan era", bringing the best refueling time for car owners this year.
The continuous decline in international oil prices has pushed domestic oil prices sharply
The main reason for this round of sharp decline in domestic oil prices is that international oil prices have continued to fall sharply in the near future. As a direct reference for influencing the adjustment of domestic oil prices, the continuous decline in international oil prices will undoubtedly directly pull down domestic refined oil prices.
Looking back at the trend of international oil prices since the beginning of this year, there has been a continuous downward trend since mid-to-late March. Taking Brent crude oil futures as an example, the core indicator of international oil prices was still at a high level of $79.57 per barrel on March 14, but by May 11 it had fallen to $77.01 per barrel, a cumulative decline of 3.2%. Another reference indicator, WTI crude oil futures, also retreated 3.7% over the same period.
Analysts pointed out that the main reasons for the continuous decline in international oil prices include:
1. The contradiction between supply and demand has intensified. On the one hand, crude oil production in major oil-producing countries such as the United States is still running at a high level, and the supply continues to be sufficient; On the other hand, affected by the slowdown in global economic growth, international oil demand has declined, and the contradiction between supply and demand imbalance has intensified, pushing oil prices under pressure.
2. The U.S. dollar index strengthened. As a major international pricing currency, the U.S. dollar index has recently rebounded and appreciated, which has pushed up the cost of crude oil denominated in U.S. dollars to a certain extent and suppressed the upside of crude oil prices.
3. The demand outlook is not optimistic. The world's major economies have entered a cycle of interest rate hikes, rising debt and financing costs, high inflation, and increased risks of economic slowdown, which have dealt a heavy blow to the outlook for crude oil demand and suppressed crude oil prices.
Affected by the above factors, international oil prices have continued to fluctuate and decline recently. Under normal circumstances, domestic oil price adjustments tend to be made about 10 working days after the international oil price trend stabilizes. The last round of adjustments took place on April 29, when domestic gasoline and diesel prices were reduced by 5-7 cents/liter due to the continued low operation of international oil prices.
A single decline may hit a new high for the year
Looking forward to the time window for domestic refined oil price adjustment in the middle and second half of this month, considering the continuous sharp decline in international oil prices, it is expected that this round of domestic oil prices will be significantly lowered, and the decline is expected to exceed 18-21 cents/liter, setting a new record for the largest single decline in 2024.
Specifically, from April 28 to May 10, international oil prices continued to fall sharply: WTI futures prices in the New York Mercantile futures market fell by 4.02%, and Brent crude oil futures prices fell by 3.76%.
According to the calculation of the current domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, if calculated according to the current international oil price change level, it is expected that the domestic gasoline price will be reduced by about 0.18 yuan/liter and the diesel price will be reduced by about 0.21 yuan/liter at 24 o'clock on May 15.
That is to say, after the conversion, the current round of domestic gasoline prices will be reduced by 235 yuan/ton, and diesel will be reduced by about 225 yuan/ton. This decline is in the range of 18-21 cents/liter, which has exceeded the downward adjustment record of all previous single adjustments before this year, which can be described as a blockbuster decline.
It is worth mentioning that the reason why the sharp drop in oil prices is heavy is also because its decline will be greater than the largest single increase of 200 yuan/ton this year. This reflects from the side that this round of oil price reduction is indeed a rare sharp decline.
In fact, careful car owners will find that this is the 8th reduction in domestic oil prices since 2024. However, the first 7 reductions were relatively small, and the highest was only 70 yuan/ton, which was a big gap with the current round of heavyweight reductions of more than 200 yuan/ton.
Some gasoline prices will return to the "7 yuan era"
The direct impact of the heavy drop in oil prices is that the price of No. 92 gasoline at some gas stations will return to the "7 yuan era".
According to preliminary estimates, the current domestic price of No. 92 gasoline is below 8.18 yuan/liter in the area, after the price adjustment at 24 o'clock on May 15, the price of No. 92 gasoline will fall below the 8 yuan/liter mark again, back to the price range of 7 yuan.
For example, in Beijing, for example, the current price of No. 92 gasoline is 8.06 yuan/liter. After this round of reduction, the price of Beijing No. 92 gasoline will return to about 7.88 yuan/liter, a decrease of about 18 cents from the current price.
For private car owners, this is undoubtedly a rare opportunity to be significantly "cheaper" since 2024. As the most common civilian fuel, No. 92 gasoline is priced back to the range of 7 yuan, which can allow private car owners to save a lot of expenses when refueling, which will bring great benefits to alleviate the pressure on travel costs.
It is worth mentioning that in addition to No. 92 gasoline, the prices of other oil varieties such as No. 95 gasoline and No. 0 diesel will also fall sharply after this round of adjustment. Taking No. 95 gasoline as an example, it is expected to fall by about 0.15 yuan/liter; No. 0 diesel fell by about 0.18 yuan/liter. This will undoubtedly further reduce the burden of refueling for car owners.
When the opportunity comes, how can car owners save money by refueling?
Compared with other commodities, the sales of gasoline and diesel have some peculiarities, such as regular monthly price adjustments, and the fact that the country is not "one-size-fits-all". Therefore, for car owners, how to take the appropriate way to refuel at the time of this crash will be related to the cost of refueling.
First of all, we should pay close attention to the specific time window for the adjustment of refined oil prices. Generally speaking, the domestic oil price adjustment cycle is the 15th and 30th/31st of each month, and according to the changes in international oil prices, the oil prices in all regions of the country will be uniformly adjusted around 24 o'clock. In other words, at 24 o'clock on May 15 tonight, it will be the specific time point of this round of sharp drop in oil prices.
Secondly, car owners should grasp the actual situation that there are certain differences in oil prices in different regions. This is due to the implementation of the "regional portal price + billing sales" mechanism for the pricing of refined oil products in the mainland, and there are differences in transportation costs, taxes and other factors in different regions, resulting in a certain regional difference in oil prices.
Therefore, when choosing to refuel, car owners should not wait until 24 o'clock on the 15th to refuel, but should be decided according to the specific oil price level of the city. If the oil price in your city is already relatively low, it is best to fill up the oil a few days before the price adjustment, because the price of oil after the price adjustment may not be much cheaper than it is now.
On the other hand, if the current oil price in your city is relatively high, you can wait until the price adjustment before refueling, and you will save more fuel costs at that time. Of course, you should also pay attention to whether the local gas station has started to adjust the price first, and if so, you should refuel as soon as possible.
Third, we need to be prepared for the periodicity and lag of the current round of oil price decline. According to the mainland's current oil price adjustment mechanism, this round of sharp decline is only the first round of adjustment, and oil prices may continue to fall in the next two weeks.
In other words, this sharp drop in oil prices is not the final "destination". If international oil prices continue to fluctuate at a low level for a period of time in the future, then domestic oil prices will also continue to decline slowly. At that time, car owners should continue to pay attention to the follow-up adjustment dynamics, and strive to replenish the fuel tank at the lowest point of oil prices.
Fourth, pay attention to the changes in the prices of different oil products. While both gasoline and diesel prices will be significantly lowered this time, there may be some differences in the exact declines. Therefore, when choosing refueling varieties, car owners need to combine their own oil habits, compare the price of different oil products, and choose the cheaper one.
Finally, some car and refueling-related apps can also provide real-time fuel price dynamic information for our car owners, so as to help us grasp the real-time oil price level of various gas stations across the country and locally, so as to facilitate the selection of refueling locations and timing.
In general, the current round of domestic oil price crash has indeed brought a rare "big discount" opportunity for car owners. As responsible car owners, we must assess the situation, grasp the fuel window and save secrets, not only to minimize fuel costs, but also to contribute our own efforts to help the whole society reduce inflationary pressure and promote the healthy development of the economy.
Economic benefits: This round of sharp decline is good for residential enterprises to reduce their burden
There is no doubt that the sharp reduction of domestic oil prices will bring tangible economic benefits to the majority of residents and enterprises, and ease their burdens on life and production and operation.
For ordinary residents, the price of gasoline and diesel, as necessities for travel and life, will directly reduce the burden of household expenses. For some practitioners who need to travel long distances all year round, such as truck drivers and ride-hailing drivers, the sharp drop in oil prices is undoubtedly a major positive, which can greatly reduce their driving costs.
Taking No. 92 gasoline as an example, the sharp drop in oil prices will bring its price back to the "7 yuan era". Assuming a private car is filled with 50 litres of petrol at a time, it will save about $9 compared to before. Although the amount is not large, it is also a lot of money for the average family in the long run.
For enterprises, especially transportation and logistics, industrial production and other industries, the benefits brought by the sharp drop in oil prices will be more obvious.
First of all, the direct benefits of transportation companies are the largest. Based on the current annual diesel consumption in the mainland, the oil price reduction of 225 yuan per ton is estimated to reduce the cost of the transportation industry by nearly 150 billion yuan per year. In the short term, there is not much room for fee reduction, but in the long run, this will greatly improve the operating conditions of logistics companies.
Secondly, industrial production enterprises will also benefit to a large extent. Low oil prices not only directly reduce the transportation energy consumption cost of enterprises, but more importantly, reduce the transmission pressure of other upstream and downstream means of production and raw material prices, so that the overall operating costs of enterprises can be reduced.