Preface
All along, we have held that there are only two ways to achieve the reunification of the motherland: "reunification by force" and "peaceful reunification."
But there are problems and costs associated with both approaches.
Although reunification by force can be resolved quickly, the price paid is heavy.
In addition to leading to bloodshed and sacrifice, it could also lead to Taiwan's economic collapse and social unrest, and the United States and other countries will inevitably step in sideways.
At that time, even if the mainland really achieves reunification through military reunification, it will be a bit more than worth the loss.
Of course, peaceful reunification is the method we most want to achieve, but it is obvious that the intransigence of the DPP authorities has made it difficult to realize "peaceful reunification."
Under such circumstances, it is all the more important to seek a third path to achieve peaceful reunification at a relatively low cost.
Killing three birds with one stone: the "Peking model"
The so-called "Beiping model" refers to the use of absolute military superiority to form pressure and deterrence on recalcitrant forces, forcing them to eventually give up resistance and choose uprising or peace talks.
In November 1948, with the victory of the Liaoshen Campaign, our army controlled the entire northeast region, and the 550,000 Kuomintang troops under Fu Zuoyi were besieged in the Beiping area.
Under the practical pressure of "the knife frame on the neck", coupled with political pressure, Fu Zuoyi finally had to choose peace talks.
After three talks, Fu Zuoyi finally issued a peace declaration on January 22, 1949, leading more than 200,000 officers and soldiers to surrender and reorganize, thus avoiding the bloody battle of Beiping City.
This practice of "encircling but not fighting" has prevented the two sides from falling into bloody clashes, and has also achieved the desired results.
We can draw on this practice and exert all-round pressure on Taiwan, including economic sanctions, diplomatic isolation, and military deterrence, so as to force the Taiwan authorities to have no way out and finally accept peaceful reunification.
Since ancient times, soldiers have focused on "surrendering soldiers without fighting", and the Beiping model can be called the best practice of this idea.
However, this model can certainly be used for reference, but care should also be taken to avoid rigid copying.
The success of the Beiping model also benefited from the huge division within Fu Zuoyi and the influence of the pro-people reformers at that time, while today's DPP is extremely bent on fearing that the world will not be chaotic.
Therefore, if you want to replicate this approach, it is crucial to cause a large-scale reversal of public opinion, so that the DPP will be paralyzed internally, and then forced to abandon the dark and turn to the light.
Therefore, the success of the Beiping model requires three prerequisites:
First, overwhelming military superiority; second, the reversal of public opinion; third, practical operational deterrence;
As it stands, these three prerequisites have been or are being met step by step.
In terms of armed forces, the PLA has undoubtedly reached the world's first-class level, and it has taken the lead in the world in both mobile combat capability and precision-guided strike capability.
In particular, in recent years, large-scale island blockade exercises have taken place one after another, and they are very targeted and combat-oriented.
In order to achieve the second step of reversal of public opinion, we can first stop all policies that benefit Taiwan.
By cutting off the economic lifeline, Taiwan will be completely impoverished, until it triggers Taiwan's internal economic crisis and the people's livelihood is struggling, thus inducing a situation in which public resentment boils.
This is already being achieved on the mainland.
In addition, it can further isolate Taiwan diplomatically, so that Taiwan will completely lose part of its international clergy.
As the "inauguration ceremony" of Lai Ching-te in May 220 approaches, more and more so-called "countries with diplomatic relations" are gradually "severing diplomatic relations" with Taiwan.
When Taiwan's "countries with diplomatic relations" are completely cleared, it will be time for Taiwan's "Taiwan independence" elements to completely cease.
Under the accumulation of internal and external troubles, the dissatisfaction of the Taiwan people is bound to continue to grow like a pressure cooker until it erupts.
At that time, it cannot be ruled out that the people will overthrow the DPP through elections and usher in a pro-reunification "new ruling bloc."
More likely, at a time of political stalemate, there are large-scale peaceful petitions, sit-in protests and other mass movements in Taiwan calling for the overthrow of the dictatorship and reunification.
Once such a situation occurs, the mainland, as a favorable force, will certainly give full support and guidance, increase its influence through political, economic, and speech means, and promote the thorough tilt of public opinion toward pro-reunification.
At this time, there is no doubt that the forces of the original pro-DPP will suffer a complete collapse and will be forced to make the choice of abandoning darkness and turning to the light and returning to the motherland.
Third, with regard to the Taiwan issue, the PLA is fully capable of carrying out phased deterrence operations.
Taiwan can first be cut off from the outside world and a complete blockade can be imposed on it; Then, Matsu, Kinmen, Penghu and other places were gradually attacked in the "buffer zone"; Finally, a "purge" operation was launched on the main island of Taiwan.
Once put into action, the island of Taiwan will fall into complete isolation, and economic depression and social unrest can be predicted.
At that time, even if the Taiwan authorities hold out to the end, they will inevitably fail to attack themselves due to internal turmoil and the pressure of public opinion, and the so-called "army that surrenders without a fight" is probably about this possibility.
The speed of the soldiers, the path of "military unification".
So what if the "Peking model" doesn't work? If the Taiwan authorities still turn a blind eye, hold on to the end, and unswervingly adhere to "Taiwan independence," what choice do we have?
Therefore, it is undeniable that on the Taiwan issue, "armed reunification" will always be our "last option."
Taiwan's status is precarious, and even more so for other countries and regions.
Once a military conflict breaks out between China and the United States in the Taiwan Strait, the scene will undoubtedly be extremely tragic.
The entire Western Pacific region and the world will be engulfed in the smoke of war.
Therefore, as far as the motherland is concerned, "armed reunification" is undoubtedly a choice that requires tremendous risks.
However, we must also be soberly aware that if the other side insists on going its own way, "military reunification" will become an unavoidable option for the motherland.
Only with the worst-case plan of "armed reunification" can we exert maximum pressure on the enemy and prevent him from acting recklessly.
At the same time, compared with the period of the War of Liberation, we have great convenience in conducting military operations in the Taiwan Strait today.
From the strength of military strength to the ability of logistical support, all of them are in a leading position.
If a military struggle in the Taiwan Strait is really inevitable, the PLA is fully confident that it will quickly accomplish its operational objectives in a relatively short period of time, seize air and sea supremacy, liberate Taiwan islands, and achieve ultimate reunification.
In addition, Taiwan's military strength is weak, and its internal decay is even more uncontainable, and if an armed conflict between the two sides of the strait is about to break out, the Taiwan military will face serious problems of internal strife and defeat.
Once a large-scale ground operation breaks out in the Taiwan region, it is very likely that its army will collapse without a fight, and at that time, the PLA will be able to take advantage of this favorable opportunity to successfully complete the liberation operation.
This is also an important reason why "armed reunification" is expected to avoid large-scale bloodshed and sacrifice.
Of course, the biggest obstacle to the "armed reunification" operation will be the possible external interference, mainly the armed intervention of countries outside the region.
However, as long as we stick to the bottom line and do not miss any opportunity to carry out the great cause of reunification to the end, even if the external forces are delusional, we will eventually achieve nothing!
Resources:
Zhang Wei is the 190th issue of "This is China": Showing the sword to "Taiwan independence" and accelerating the process of reunification--Observer.com
Taiwan media: The Pacific island country of Nauru announced the "severance of diplomatic relations" with the Taiwan authorities--Huanqiu.com