Preface
In the contest between China and the United States, which country has been hit the hardest?
It's not China, it's not the United States, but South Korea, which has been picked up by the United States and rushed to the front line of anti-China!
Just look at South Korea's economic data, which saw its GDP grow by 3.4% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, higher than that of the United States, and South Korea's own media reports have called it "staggering growth."
But the reality is that behind this "amazing growth" in South Korea is "red lights" everywhere! Its manufacturing production, retail sales, and equipment investment all declined to varying degrees in the first quarter of this year.
In addition to the economy, South Korea's pillar industries are declining, and they have even been basically overtaken by the mainland, especially South Korea's proud shipbuilding industry, which has almost been completely crushed by the mainland.
Originally, South Korea still pinned its hopes on the United States to seek greater benefits for itself, but in the end, it didn't get anything, but it also got into it!
Seeing that the situation in its own country is so grim, not to mention the South Korean people, even the South Korean government is panicked, no, South Korea, which has always carried out its anti-China efforts to the end, will not hesitate to send its foreign minister to visit China at the same time!
The situation in South Korea is dire
Looking at the economic development of South Korea today, it is difficult to think that South Korea was also one of the Asian tigers in the last century.
The Park Chung-hee regime at the time saw an opportunity and did everything in its power to squeeze domestic labor and build South Korea into a foundry and labor exporter.
With the advantages of low human rights and low cost, South Korea's demographic dividend resources have been maximized, and the whole people have provided low-end products and cheap labor services to developed countries in exchange for the dawn of economic take-off.
Although at the expense of a generation of South Koreans, South Korea has done so.
In the seventies and eighties of the last century, the strong demand for manufactured goods in developed countries allowed South Korea to seize a golden opportunity.
Driven by Park Chung-hee's high-pressure measures, South Korea has joined the globalized industrial chain of developed countries and has become an important production and processing base.
Relying on the profits of OEM for the West, South Korea got rid of poverty and entered the initial process of modernization.
Of course, this process did not happen overnight, and South Korea, as a destination for industrial relocation in developed countries, was forced to reduce production costs across the board.
Child labor, overtime, and hard work were common, and it was not until Park Chung-hee was killed that the new regime reluctantly improved the situation.
But even so, South Korea's economic boom is based on low human rights costs.
But the good times did not last long, with the deepening of China's reform and opening up, an emerging power with a larger demographic dividend resources joined the international competition.
China's future is much larger than that of South Korea, and its population size and comprehensive strength are completely different from the same level.
As a result, China soon surpassed South Korea in terms of cheap labor and the supply of products, fundamentally shaking South Korea's position in the international industrial chain.
South Korea's economy has been hit hard, which has a lot to do with the decline of its chip industry.
At that time, South Korea's Samsung Electronics relied on the transfer of Western interests such as obtaining patents to occupy a place in the field of memory chips.
But this also made South Korea a little floating, and as soon as it was picked up by the United States, it followed the United States to contain the mainland's semiconductor industry.
I have to say that the mainland was indeed affected to a certain extent at that time, but compared with the mainland, the biggest impact was South Korea itself, after all, before that, the mainland was the largest buyer of South Korean chips, almost supporting half of the Korean chip industry.
But South Korea is clearly reluctant to face this reality, so much so that by the time it suddenly finds itself exporting memory chips from $80 billion in 2018 to $43 billion, it is already too late.
At that time, the mainland's memory chips had already sat firmly in the market, and even squeezed South Korea's market share to the second position, so the end of Korean chips is completely self-inflicted!
And after all, South Korea cannot compete with the mainland's advantages in scale and production capacity, and now China is accelerating the process of comprehensive substitution of domestic memory chips for imports, and South Korean chip exports to China are not as good as before.
In addition to the chip industry, South Korea's shipbuilding industry, another pillar, is also declining.
According to the "2023 Shipbuilding Value Chain Comprehensive Competitiveness Report" released by the Korea Industrial Research Institute, China's shipbuilding industry value chain comprehensive competitiveness ranked first in the world in 2023, reaching 90.6 points, while South Korea only scored 88.9 points, lagging behind China.
Data shows that in the first half of 2023, China received 72.6% of the world's new ship orders, while South Korea accounted for only 29%.
In addition, the size of the mainland's merchant fleet has surpassed Greece to rank first in the world, while South Korea's merchant fleet ranks fourth in the world.
But South Korea is not too bad in shipbuilding, after all, emaciated camels are bigger than horses.
Therefore, at present, South Korean shipbuilding companies still occupy a lot of market share in the field of gas carriers and have absolute market control, which shows that high-end ship types can be said to be the last position of the Korean shipbuilding industry.
The competitiveness of mainland shipping companies in the mainstream ship market has exceeded or is at the same level, such as container ships, oil tankers, bulk carriers, etc.
On the other hand, South Korea's shipbuilding industry is too single in the type of ship receiving orders, concentrated in a small number of liquid cargo ships, which can be seen from the composition of new orders received by South Korea in the first quarter of this year.
It is mainly concentrated in LNG, VLAC and other fields, while the mainstream ship type is like a container ship, and South Korea has not had an order.
It can be seen that China has achieved the dual advantages of technology and price, and has comprehensively overtaken South Korea to become a well-deserved global shipbuilding industry hegemon, and in the first quarter of this year, the number of new orders received by South Korean shipbuilders is still 4 percentage points behind the mainland.
This has undoubtedly worsened South Korea's industrialization foundation and exacerbated its internal and external economic troubles.
And all this is to blame for the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's excessively pro-American foreign policy, in order to cater to the United States, the Yoon government has no bottom line against China, and does not hesitate to cut off the economic lifeline.
Former President Moon Jae-in even denounced the Yoon administration on April 1 as "the first time I've seen such a bad government in 70 years."
The crushing defeat of South Korea's ruling party in the 22nd National Assembly election can also be said to be a stern warning to the Yoon administration's foreign policy.
South Korea seeks to reset ties with China
In the face of domestic and foreign pressures, the Yoon Suk-yeol government has realized the importance of economic development, and the South Korean foreign minister's visit to China is aimed at saving the economy by restarting relations with China.
In fact, China's economy is an important development space for Korean companies, and during his visit to China, Cho will also express this concern to Korean companies in China.
He acknowledged that the shift from complementarity to competitiveness in the economic and trade between China and South Korea has brought severe challenges to South Korean enterprises, which shows that South Korea urgently needs to reopen the Chinese market.
Therefore, Zhao Duiyeol's current visit to China is entrusted with the important task of revitalizing Sino-ROK relations.
He said that he will take the first step to promote the new development of bilateral relations, carry out in-depth communication with the Chinese side on key areas, consolidate the foundation for the development of bilateral relations, and the China-Japan-ROK summit is also on the agenda.
It can be seen that although South Korea is gradually distancing itself from China under the manipulation of the United States, the current South Korean government has realized the cost of such a pro-American policy, and if it continues to break off diplomatic relations with China, it will completely crush South Korea's industrial economy.
So in order to save the economy, South Korea has to extend an olive branch to China and seek to restart cooperation with China.
After all, since the establishment of diplomatic relations 32 years ago, the relationship between China and South Korea has brought great benefits to the people of both sides, and win-win cooperation is the best interest of both sides.
Therefore, the resumption of dialogue will undoubtedly broaden the space for mutual benefit and win-win results between the two countries.
The mainland attaches great importance to South Korea's sincerity, but it is also wary of its pro-American nature
Regarding South Korea's attempt to restart relations with China, the mainland is cautious but does not lose hope.
On the one hand, the mainland attaches importance to South Korea's sincerity and efforts; On the other hand, the mainland is also soberly aware of the ROK's nature of still being close to the United States.
As an important close neighbor and cooperative partner, the mainland has always attached importance to Sino-ROK relations and looks forward to the return of normal economic and trade relations between the two countries.
China recognizes this sincerity and hopes that the ROK will take concrete actions to abide by the one-China principle, get rid of the state of over-dependence on the United States, and safeguard the political foundation of China-ROK relations.
However, it is disappointing that the pro-American and flattering nature of the Yoon Suk-yeol administration is difficult to eradicate for the time being.
The sharp decline in China-South Korea relations stems from the Yoon administration's accusations and provocations against China on many issues of core interest.
On issues such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the Taiwan issue, South Korea has openly sided with the United States, further intensifying its confrontation with China.
What is even more alarming is that Yoon Suk-yeol has already said in September 2023 that he will provide additional aid to Ukraine, and in April this year, according to South Korean media reports, South Korea intends to provide another $200 million in aid to Ukraine this year.
Once South Korea is really drawn into the NATO camp, it will certainly have a greater impact on Sino-South Korean relations and even cause a major crisis in the military security of the peninsula.
Even North Korea has warned that if South Korea does join NATO, the risks on the Korean Peninsula will exceed pre-Korean War levels.
There is no exaggeration in this assessment, and if war breaks out on the peninsula, it will be a winner-takes-all, life-or-death showdown, even larger than the Korean War.
Therefore, on the issue of military security on the Korean Peninsula, the mainland's attitude is resolute and clear: The United States will never allow its NATO militarization strategy to penetrate into China's doorstep.
If South Korea insists on going its own way, it will be a deadly crisis unprecedented, and China and North Korea will surely retaliate hard to maintain homeland security at all costs.
epilogue
China is open to improving relations between China and South Korea, but it will never make a loss-making deal.
As long as the ROK government earnestly abandons pro-US and flattering Japan and follows a rational diplomacy that puts its own interests first, China-ROK relations can hopefully return to the track of stable and friendly development.
Otherwise, China will have to break with it and defend its core interests.
Resources:
The ROK foreign minister began his visit to China today, and when he took office, he said that China-ROK relations are no less important than the US-ROK alliance -- Observer.com
Former South Korean President Moon Jae-in criticized the Yoon Suk-yeol government: It is the first time in 70 years that such a bad government has been seen - Global.com
Is the shipbuilding industry of China and South Korea divided? --International Ship Network
South Korean Finance Minister: South Korea will provide $200 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine this year - Guangming.com