Long push: copycat trading cognition 2.0 - talk about various tracks

Original author: DC is greater than C

Original text: twitter

Note: This article is from @DL_W59 Twitter, and Mars Finance is organized as follows:

Public chain: 1st floor/2nd floor

For this track, many friends left a message above asking if there is a recommendation #L1好的标的? You can look down

The data above shows that among the projects that have opened on Binance since March 2023, L1 is the track with the largest increase and the most projects, except for memes. For example, #sei, #sui, #tia, #ntrn等. After opening Binance, the value reverted and then when #BTC rose, these ushered in a big rise.

I know everyone has to say that there are a huge number of unlocks in the later stages. Getting on the car is to pick up the plate, it is better to buy the kind of public chain that is almost fully circulated. That's right, but you can't deny that SEI, SUI, and TIA, after the opening of the market last year, did rise in the 73700 market, and the increase was not bad. So I want to say that assuming that the next wave of BTC new highs occurs during the election, in Q4, then the public chain projects that opened Binance in the time before Q4 are worth paying attention to.

Don't forget. In the past 21 years, it has pulled very fiercely and dozens of times hundreds of times the public chain, such as #sol, #avax, #luna, #inj, and #chr等. It's all 20 years and most of them opened Binance in the second half of 20, and the opening FDV was also very high at that time, but the circulating market value was okay, so will the next #sol be born this year? See.

Of course, the almost fully circulating public chain does not mean that there are no opportunities. It's like the #inj一样 I discussed with Boss Fu @FLS_OTC yesterday. There are also #ckb, and sol, etc., to see the trading volume, to see if the dealer has money, to see how the banker's circulating chips are controlled. Now it's a good pull, so how much the main rising wave market will continue to pull, this depends on the village. For us, it is necessary to control the cost of entry. Estimating the track ceiling.

So in fact, not only in 2023, but also in 2022 or even 21, the public chain projects in these years can be studied. After all, among the financing projects, the financing amount of the public chain track is the highest. is the richest and the most narrative.

Yes, there is also L2, especially the second layer of eth, the #arb, #op, and #strk that are currently known to be listed on Binance, as well as the rumored #zks and so on. This narrative is not bad, the key is who can run out, this needs to be tested by the market. We can't know, let's see if the 5.23#ETH ETF can pass first. passed, there is more liquidity to enter ETH, and ETH is more worth looking forward to. For its second floor, it is naturally a big benefit.

gamefi：

Speaking of this track, I have a lot of interaction with Ni Da @Phyrex_Ni. The great god doesn't have a cold very much, but the opportunity to make money is ok. There are also many friends who ask when these new game coins will take off on Binance. Binance on such as #pixel, #ai, #ace, #portal, #xai等, and a #bigtime. In the 73700 market, it has also risen, but it is not as #axs, #gmt, and #raca那样的疯狂 as before. In fact, the game token that can be listed on Binance and OK, at least the traffic, team, and model are OK, as for whether it can become a new myth, it depends on the need for large liquidity to enter first. Secondly, it depends on the project's ability to operate out of the circle and the proportion of token release and destruction. To put it bluntly, whether the game is fun or not, whether the token has the strength to pull the plate. The big market is waiting. Follow Q4 to take a look. Track ceiling, I still remember that the market value of AXS was 20 billion, and RACA seemed to be less than 5 billion, and the current market value of these Binance listings is only a few hundred million. So. Look at this round of 24-25 period. I think if there is the next AXS or even surpasses AXS, it will definitely need to be on the big exchange, have a stronger out of the circle, and pull the plate. Now that I have time, I think I can go down and study these games, economic models. We'll see.

meme

I talked about this track before, for #bome都发文两次, if you are interested, you can turn back and watch, basically the main rising wave market will definitely be crazy. And there will definitely be new awesome memes coming out. You see last year 16000-31000 had #pepe. The previous 42000-73700 has #wif, #bome, and #bonk等等, so now the previous meme projects can be followed, but it is also necessary to discover new ones in the next main rising wave market. Maybe 24-25 will produce a new meme project that goes beyond #shib.

For more information on how to screen and judge high-quality new memes, please refer to the link to my previous tweet:

https://x.com/dl_w59/status/1775132581308387530?s=46&t=RG0LS-mo1TVIb41KrUfzgA…

TO

WLD, #agix这波都拉的不错. Whether it is the AI narrative of the currency circle or the AI track of porcelain and US stocks, especially Nvidia. Anyway, it's pulling, and it's pulling a lot, that's. Among them, those who have learned about WLD should know that the background, strength, team, and funds are all good, but WLD is unlocked every day, but the currency price is stable. That's where the headache lies. Buy it.,It's really risky in the back.,Don't buy it.,In case you miss it.,After all, they're talking about AI.。 Personally, I think so. This track doesn't end there. You can pay attention to the situation of the AI sector in the U.S. stocks, such as NVIDIA's financial report after the interest rate cut and water release. Wait. You can also see if there are any AI-related projects landing on Binance and CB in the future. Anyway, controlling costs is the most important thing. It's still the same sentence: the underlying logic is the cognition of BTC, and the low point of BTC is the low point of the copycat.

The above four popular tracks, by the way, plus the ecology of each public chain. Personal thoughts: Assuming that the general election is Q4 ushering in a new main rising wave, then now to the time of the election, you can pay attention to the projects that land on Binance, CB, OK and other big exchanges and what track they are, and whether there will be new hot tracks in the market, such as the RWA mentioned earlier, right, the new hype hot spot may be in this. Why? Remember 2022. At that time, ETH2.0 ushered in the hype of the ETH ecosystem, but after the New Year to 2023, what track is on fire, remember. BRC20, BTC ecology, the birth of ordi, etc. So the market is like that, there is always something new, a new opportunity. (For example, #BB opened on Binance today.) Catch it, and maybe you'll get rich.

Infrastructure, #DEFI

In these two tracks, there are not many, or even few, high-return value projects. It's not that it's not possible at all, but the probability is low, like DeFi, just a #pendle还不错. Other DeFi projects, to put it bluntly, are shipped in the upper and lower levels. Didn't even pull the plate a little. The same goes for infrastructure. #arkm都还算是蹭上了ai才有一点表现. Maybe it has something to do with the token model and the strength of the banker. The main thing is the strength of the village.

Of course, it doesn't mean that there is no chance at all, but compared with the public chain and meme, the chance win rate is a bit low. Very low. Therefore, our limited bottom-buying funds are still looking for potential projects on popular tracks.

Finally, the above always mentions the market value of the track ceiling. Let's do a simple calculation. At the same time, combined with the 21-year bull top data: 21-year bull top BTC 1.27 trillion US dollars, ETH 560 billion US dollars, TOP 10 threshold 37 billion US dollars, TOP 100 threshold 1.1 billion US dollars and 21-year bull top crypto total market value of 3 trillion to estimate the 24-25 main rising wave this time.

Assuming that the next main rising wave market is 100,000 U for BTC and 10,000 U for ETH, the market value is estimated. BTC's market capitalization will reach about 2 trillion ETH 1 trillion, the TOP10 threshold is more than 150 billion US dollars, and the TOP 100 threshold is about 4 billion US dollars.

So which tracks and projects will enter the top 10 and top 100? How many of them can get out? We'll see. Of course, it actually depends on where BTC and ETH can end up in this round of the main rising wave and at what price. Now that's all just an estimate. Keep an eye on adjusting your strategy when you need it. Take control of your positions.

All of the above are personal thoughts. This topic will be updated in the future. Everyone is welcome to pay attention to setting reminders.

After all, there is still time before the main rising wave. There may be a better time to buy the bottom than #btc 56,500.

The above is not investment advice. INVEST WITH CAUTION, DYOR, THANK YOU.