Recently, there are three pieces of information in the real estate market that stand out in particular:
1. According to the data released by the six major banks, the scale of housing loans will shrink by 600 billion yuan in 2023;
2. The number of new listings of second-hand houses increased by 35.6% in March compared with February;
3. At present, more than 30 cities have launched the "old for new" policy to dispel the concern of "not daring to buy a new house without selling the old house".
Although these three news seem to be unrelated, they all point directly to the real estate market, and industry insiders analyze that through these three pieces of information, there are three signals that deserve our special attention:
The first signal: it generally reflects the increasing downward pressure on the current economy, and the wait-and-see sentiment of home buyers is strong, and most people dare not enter the market easily;
The second signal: now is not only sluggish, the second-hand housing market is under greater pressure, and even with the decline in housing prices, more and more people can no longer bear it, and have to reduce the price and sell the goods. However, in general, the vast majority of listings are mainly based on concerns about future uncertainty, and more and more investors are bent on staying in their pockets.
The third signal: the local government has seen the concern that it is difficult for the improvement demand group to sell houses, so more and more cities have launched "trade-in".
Regarding the concept of trade-in, to be honest, it has been very popular recently, but from the actual situation, trade-in is to take three ways, namely, direct acquisition, cooperation with intermediaries, and subsidies. But judging by some people's concerns, the effect may not be as good as everyone thinks.
First of all, let's talk about the direct acquisition of second-hand housing for affordable housing, from the current point of view that some places have taken this way, in fact, the purchase price is not possible to take the market price, the highest may be 8% off the market appraisal price, the lowest may even be only 6% off, your current second-hand housing market value of 200, give you 160 acquisition, or even 120,000 acquisition, are you willing? It is estimated that there are not many shots.
The second is to cooperate with the intermediary, which is also very easy to understand, that is, to entrust the intermediary to help you sell the house, the price is of course the intermediary has the final say, if you can sell it, the price must be very low, and the intermediary may also have two ends to eat, and the profit is definitely not the seller.
And there should also be a fixed pool for the new, for example, there is a high probability that some houses that are not very easy to sell in the pool, and the location and reputation may not be so competitive.
The last is the house purchase subsidy, which should be the most assured, and the owners of old houses are generally more inclined to choose this way, after all, the money is in the pocket.
But recently, there is also a situation, online news said that some places have encountered the phenomenon of "difficult to cash" in the purchase of housing subsidies, why is it difficult? People made it clear that the economic pressure and financial pressure were also great, so they could only wait and see. To put it bluntly, they are all writing blank checks, and the people in front of them who replaced the house did not get the subsidy, do you think the people in the back will follow up? The answer is obvious.
Therefore, after a big circle, it is still back to the original point, if the economy does not return to normal, everyone has no money in their pockets, and they may not be able to play any game.
Under the effect of these signals, the result is such a situation, even in the same city, the same street, the market price of second-hand housing is lower than that of new houses, such as many new houses, at most a seven or eight fold, but some second-hand houses have appeared "cut in half", or even "knee break".
To put it bluntly, the number of second-hand housing listings has surged, the selling price is getting lower and lower, and in the market environment of oversupply, there are 3 types of houses that will become "the most difficult to resell", for reasons you may not expect, let's take a look:
.01
houses in the newly built area
According to the data, as of the end of 2023, the balance of local debt in the mainland was 40.7 trillion yuan, which is almost the same as the ratio of GDP compared with developed economies. In other words, the possibility of borrowing on a large scale is almost non-existent, which is why the state proposed at the end of last year to optimize the "central and local debt structure". After all, if the local government blindly borrows debt, if it cannot be repaid in the future, the impact will be great.
Therefore, in the future, if the local economy itself is not very prominent, except for some urgent needs at the strategic level, it is actually not so easy to apply for the use of national bonds.
What does this mean? In the words of insiders, if our new areas that have reached more than 10 years have already been roughly outlined, the supporting facilities have been built, and the construction has been built.
However, it may be a bit difficult to realize the previous plan of the new planned new area within 5 years, on the one hand, the pressure of economic development is high; On the other hand, there is no money in the pocket. In this way, the impact on the surrounding community is obvious.
For example, in a national-level new area, the house price soared to 4-50,000 yuan 3 years ago, but now? Many have dropped to more than 20,000, and the key is that it has dropped to this extent, and few people have seen the house. The main reason is that these new districts have one thing in common, that is, the large-scale supporting facilities are incomplete, there is no industry, there is no school, and the commercial facilities and transportation are greatly discounted.
In the past, many people ran to buy such a house because they expected the supporting facilities to keep up in the future, and there was a premium. Now the supporting facilities can't keep up, and there are no new people to take over, so who do you say these houses will be transferred to?
.02
Houses in the suburbs and metropolitan areas.
In fact, this round of housing adjustment started from the suburbs at the earliest, and from the current point of view, the biggest decline in this round of adjustment is also in the suburbs and some metropolitan areas.
Let's talk about metropolitan areas first, such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, including some planned national metropolitan areas and other places, which used to be 20,000 or 30,000 square meters, but now they are only a few thousand square meters, and more than 10,000 in the past, but now they are only a few thousand square meters smaller.
Moreover, the price of the suburbs is obviously more than the price of the urban area, and the reason why the suburbs and the metropolitan area of the house will have such a large downside, mainly because when the property market is hot, the cost of land is not cheap, some developers in the main urban area can not get the land, so go to the suburbs to "grab", we see that the developer is so confident, the people who buy the house are more confident, and the result is that in the hot period of the property market, many people go to the suburbs to buy a house to shake the number.
But once the property market is not good, no one will buy a house in the core area of the city, who will buy a house in the suburbs and metropolitan areas?
Besides, the city will not transfer the core resources to the suburbs or metropolitan areas, just imagine, now the city is difficult to attract investment, the main city has a large number of vacant office buildings, abandoned factories, who will move good resources to the suburbs and the edge of the metropolitan area, to radiate the surrounding cities, this is obviously unrealistic, so it is even more impossible in the future, there is no resource advantage, the suburbs are not enough housing facilities, life is not convenient, who wants to buy it?
.03
Old high-rise house.
We are talking about this kind of high-rise housing, mainly refers to the old high-rise housing has been more than ten years old, over time, the disadvantages of this kind of housing will become more and more obvious, such as in recent years, there have been high-rise residential fires and even strong wind incidents, people's doubts about the old high-rise residential are also deepening.
In particular, Xinhuanet once published an article entitled "The Ministry of Public Security Issued Ten Tips for Fire Safety in High-rise Buildings", which mentioned that most of the fire-fighting vehicles equipped in China are below 50 meters, and the height of most fire-fighting water cannons and water guns is also more than 50 meters, more than 50 meters, and it is basically difficult to have effective external attack methods.
Therefore, escape safety is the biggest problem, after all, many people have begun to worry, with the increase in the age of high-rise residential buildings, some facilities and equipment begin to age, more likely to cause fire, escape will be a big problem, if you encounter strong winds, earthquakes and other emergencies, can not help but worry.
To put it bluntly, if this kind of thing happens frequently in the future, people's goodwill towards old high-rise housing will continue to weaken, and the expectation of its value will be accelerated to decrease. And since the Nanjing electric vehicle incident and the Nanchang gale incident, many netizens on the Internet have said that they still want to take advantage of the market recovery to sell high-rise houses.
In addition, another important reason is that due to the major shift in the relationship between real estate supply and demand, in order to reverse this situation, more and more provinces and cities have begun to formulate new regulations - the future supply of low-density residential land, which is actually to divert high-rise residential customers. To put it bluntly, with low-density and improved quality housing, who will spend a lot of money to buy an old high-rise building?
Therefore, as time goes by in the future, many domestic residences may fall into the dilemma of not being able to sell or rent out, as Cao Dewang said at the beginning. And about this, economist Li Xunlei also said:
This round of real estate adjustment may take a long time, and no country in history has faced such a complex situation as the total population is declining, the aging population is accelerating, the macro leverage ratio is close to 300%, and the real estate cycle is beginning to decline.
To put it bluntly, even if the market recovers in the future, there will be a more obvious differentiation, and at that time, good houses will naturally be more popular, and bad houses, such as the ones mentioned above, may only become more and more difficult to resell.
Wan Ziwen said: Every word of the article was typed out by me, and I clicked "watching" to let me know that you are also "doing your best" for life.
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