[Market Analysis and Interpretation] 2024.5.14
As of noon closing, from the overall point of view, the three major indexes opened collectively low, and then showed a narrow range of shocks, the two cities rose more and fell less, more than 3,700 stocks were red, and the half-day turnover was 527 billion, a decrease of 42.4 billion from the previous trading day.
The market is really tangled, not up or down stuck there, but we have to look at the long-term, after all, the big index is still firmly above the annual line, this is not a trivial matter, indicating that the overall trend is fine, we can't easily sing down. Besides, there has been movement on the Hong Kong stock market, and once the enthusiasm of the capital is ignited, it will be a matter of time before A shares benefit.
Technically speaking, if the market pulls back, we can focus on the position of 3100 points, maybe it is a good time to inhale the dip. Speaking of sectors, I pondered that the technology sector has been adjusted for a while, and it's time to pay attention. Next, various policies and innovations in the field of science and technology are expected to come one after another, and these good news are likely to bring new vitality to technology stocks and promote their resurgence.
Therefore, for us ordinary investors, we might as well pay more attention to the technology sector now, after all, the adjustment is sufficient, which means that the risk has been released a lot, and as long as there is a little wind and grass, the potential for a rebound is great. Of course, we have to be patient when we make investments, don't see the wind or rain, or combine the actual market dynamics, take your time, and seek progress steadily.
As for the specific operation, I think we can start to study the leading companies in the technology sector or companies with solid fundamentals, without rushing to invest in them all, layout in batches, and control positions, so that we can not only seize opportunities, but also effectively manage risks. After all, the market always likes to surprise people, but it also comes a little scare from time to time, so we have to deal with it flexibly, not in a hurry, and step by step.
From the perspective of sectors, the civil explosion, publishing, and NFT sectors led the rise today; Coal mining, coal, and energy sectors led the decline today.
From the perspective of funds, the main net inflow of babies, automobiles and NFTs; The main net outflow of medium and special valuation, high-end manufacturing and high-end equipment.
From the perspective of the index, animation games, CSI Sports, and CSI Chinese medicine are among the top daily gainers; CSI coal, coal and other rights, and household appliances are the last in daily gains.
【Technical】
Let's take the SSE Composite Index as an example:
Weekly chart (weekly update): 5-week, 10-week, and 20-week moving averages are golden crosses; The MACD indicator is a golden cross, the red column is expanding, and the indicator line is running below the 0 axis; The golden cross of the KDJ indicator spreads upward, and the J value peaks; The BOLL channel opening spreads, and the stock index runs near the upper band.
Analysis: In the medium term, the 5-week and 10-week and 20-week moving averages have formed a golden cross, and the index has also broken through the suppression of the 60-week moving average, exchanging time for space, and finally breaking through the pressure near 3130 points, and the technical upside space is open, but there are 120-week and 250-week moving averages above the suppression, which will be the resistance to the future rebound.
Daily chart (daily update): 5-day, 10-day, 20-day moving averages are golden crosses; The MACD indicator is a golden cross, the red column is shortened, and the indicator line is running above the 0 axis; The KDJ indicator death fork spreads downward, and the J value bottoms out; The BOLL channel opening spreads, and the stock index runs near the upper band.
Analysis: In the short term, if there is a pullback, focus on the support of the 5-day moving average, as long as the 5-day moving average supports the index and the trend does not go down, then there is no need to worry too much.
【Fundamentals & News】
According to the Sixth Academy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation, the mainland's highest-level on-board liquid hydrogen system "Track 1000" was released recently, which will help hydrogen energy heavy trucks exceed 1000 kilometers of cruising range. (New Energy Vehicles)
According to the official progress, Blizzard's games will return to the Chinese mainland market this summer. (Game)
According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, sales of new energy vehicles in April were 850,000 units, up 33.5% year-on-year. (New Energy Vehicles)
Gu Xin, director of the Shanghai Civil Aviation Certification Center, recently said that C919 is applying for the C919 airworthiness certificate from the European Union and is expected to be approved next year. (Aviation)
Recently, securities firms have been frequently subject to administrative supervision measures or administrative penalties by regulatory authorities. (Securities)
According to China Fund News, at the end of April, nearly half of the net value of fixed-income bank wealth management products fell, with the largest decline reaching 140 BP, the largest drawdown in the year. (Fixed Income)
【Valuation】
Shanghai Composite Index: P/E ratio of 13.81, normal valuation;
Shenzhen Stock Exchange Component Index: P/E ratio of 22.90, undervaluation;
GEM refers to: P/E ratio of 28.88, undervaluation;
Science and Technology Innovation 50: P/E ratio of 44.73, normal valuation;
CSI 300: P/E ratio of 12.22, normal valuation;
SSE 50: P/E ratio of 10.58, normal valuation;
CSI 500: P/E ratio of 24.02, normal valuation.
【Plate Analysis】
Games: Recently, the game industry has been lively, and a trend from across the ocean has blown our game plate into a boil. It is said that the "gangster" who once set off a "small scattered fight against Wall Street" in 2021 and made the stock price of the U.S. stock game station soar, suddenly bubbled up on social media after three years of silence, suggesting that he may be coming back again. As soon as the news came out, the stock price of the game station was like a rocket, although it was stopped several times because of the sharp fluctuations, but the momentum still made many people stunned.
On our domestic side, the game market is also booming. As everyone's wallet bulges, the demand for fun will naturally rise, and the cake of online entertainment is getting bigger and bigger. In the first quarter of this year, the growth rate of the game market remained at 9%, and the number of users exceeded the 668 million mark, setting a new record. In this context, it is difficult for game companies to achieve outstanding performance.
Let's talk about technological advancements, AI, augmented reality (AR), and the concept of the metaverse, which have opened the door to a new world for the gaming industry. AI, in particular, not only can it make games smarter and more engaging, but it can also help game companies save a lot of costs and increase efficiency.
From an investment point of view, the valuation of the game industry is relatively friendly now, and the price-to-earnings ratio of the animation game index is not high, which means that compared to the past six months, the current price is quite affordable. If you want to take advantage of this shareholder trend, the animation and game theme fund is naturally the first choice, after all, this is directly linked. If you are interested in technology trends and feel that the future potential of AI is unlimited, then an indirectly related AI theme fund is also a good choice, after all, games are one of the important application scenarios of AI technology.
【Strategy Sharing】
Today's pick-up: None.
Get off today: None.
Ready to get on the bus: None.
Ready to get off: 50AH, CSI 300, 500 quality, China Securities Bank, Hong Kong large market, Hong Kong small and medium, S&P 500.
Disclaimer: The content of the article is a record and self-retention of the author's personal subjective trading ideas, and the indices and funds involved in the analysis do not constitute any investment and application advice.