Note: This analysis article only represents Cui Dongshu's personal views, if you have any objections, please leave a message.
In 2024, China's auto market will face a fundamental trend of continuous improvement. In March, the automobile market was greatly boosted by the start of commercial vehicles and the end of the quarter, and the passenger car market declined greatly due to the wave of price cuts, but the overall performance was still good. China's auto market has recovered strongly due to strong growth in automobile exports. The pattern of large groups has changed dramatically, and FAW, Dongfeng, and Changan have a super trend.
With the increase of policy guidelines for the automobile industry at the national level, further stabilizing and expanding automobile consumption, coupled with the contribution of the Spring Festival factor, the auto market grew strongly from January to April. Recently, passenger car exports have contributed a large amount, and the overall automobile market continues to strengthen, and the full year is expected to remain at a record high.
1. In 2024, all car riders will get off to a good start
In recent years, the differentiation of passenger merchants has obvious characteristics. This year, the market was affected by policies and Spring Festival factors, and the growth rate of passenger cars from January to April was relatively good. The commercial vehicle market only recovered after the Spring Festival, and the commercial vehicle market was stronger from March to April, and the trend was relatively stable from January to April.
2. The auto market is off to a good start in 2024
From January to April 2024, the cumulative sales volume of automobiles totaled 8,996,600 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 9%; The total sales of automobiles in April were 2,332,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 8.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 12.7%.
In 2023, the auto market will continue to open low and go high, and the overdraft at the end of the year will be obvious. In February this year, the sales volume declined significantly month-on-month, and the trend of rebounding in March was larger, and the price war brought about a gradual recovery of the market downturn.
In 2019, the total sales volume of automobiles was 25,768,700 units, a cumulative decrease of 8.1%; In 2020, the total sales volume of automobiles was 25.31 million units, a cumulative decrease of 1.9%; In 2021, the total sales volume of automobiles will be 26.27 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 3.8%, and finally achieve positive growth, higher than the performance in 2019; In 2022, the total sales volume of automobiles will be 26,755,700 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 1.9%; In 2023, the total sales volume of automobiles will be 30.09 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 12.4%.
3. The performance of the major car enterprise groups is better
This chart is a chart for 2021, due to the low base, the trend at the beginning of 2021 is high, mainly due to the accumulation effect of the low base in 2020. The 2021 chart compares the 2019 data.
In 2021, the trend of the auto market is not strong, and the groups are diverging due to the differentiated market demand of the advantageous sectors of trucks and passenger cars.
Compared with the above 2021 chart, some car companies will perform strongly in 2022, and the growth rate of the industry will be seriously differentiated. The epidemic at the beginning of 2022 has led to greater pressure on traditional car companies, especially the impact of new energy and the impact of the epidemic, the performance of large state-owned groups has been differentiated, GAC and Chery have performed well, and Chery's commercial vehicle and passenger car segments have performed well. The performance of FAW, Great Wall, BAIC and other companies in the north are under pressure.
At the beginning of 2023, new energy will drive the trend of the auto market to diverge. The top three central enterprises are generally differentiated, and some state-owned enterprises are left behind. New energy companies such as BYD are doing well; Chery and Tesla have performed relatively well this year. The performance of second-tier automakers is differentiated, due to the continuous loss pressure of new and old kinetic energy conversion and new energy vehicles, and the differentiation of domestic brand SMEs is seriously sluggish.
The lineup pattern of auto groups in 2024 has changed across the board, with FAW, Changan and Dongfeng performing well due to short time and seasonal sales rhythms, while SAIC is still in decline. BYD and Tesla, new energy vehicles, are diverging.
In April, the auto market was relatively differentiated, the consumption of the auto market was strong before the holiday, and the trend of each company was differentiated after the holiday. In April, some major manufacturers showed a large decline from the previous month, and BYD strengthened from March.
4. Production and sales trends of passenger car enterprises in the narrow sense
In 2023, the cumulative sales volume of manufacturers will be 25,532,300 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 10.4%.
From January to April 2024, the cumulative sales volume of narrow multiplication was 7,542,300 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 10.3%; In April, the total sales volume of narrow passenger vehicles was 1,948,600 units, an increase of 8% year-on-year, and a month-on-month decrease of 11.2%.
In April, the main car companies were generally weak, and independent car companies fell sharply in April. Geely Automobile led the way in February, and Chery led the way in April. The joint venture FAW-Volkswagen is stronger.
The main manufacturers of passenger cars are rapidly divided, and the performance of new energy vehicle manufacturers is stronger, and the differentiation of independent performance is particularly obvious.
In 2023, the total retail sales of manufacturers will be 21.7 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 6%; From January to April 2024, sales totaled 6.36 million units, up 8% year-on-year, and down 6% year-on-year in April.
5. Production and sales trends of new energy passenger vehicle companies
The sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles in 2022 will be 6.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 96%. In 2023, the new energy passenger vehicle market will be 8.87 million, with a steady growth trend.
From January to April 2024, the sales volume of 2.74 million increased well, and manufacturers were more cautious in April.
In April, the trend of new energy passenger vehicles compared with March was basically a slight decline, but some manufacturers were sluggish year-on-year with the price war, and the overall performance of the new energy market was average.
6. The production and sales trend of traditional power passenger car enterprises
In 2023, the sales volume of traditional fuel passenger cars in the narrow sense will be 16.66 million units, which will be basically the same as the same period in 2022; From January to April 2024, the sales volume of traditional narrow passenger cars was 4.81 million units, an increase of 2% year-on-year and a year-on-year decrease of 1% in April.
The continuous decline of conventional passenger cars in the early stage has brought greater market pressure. Recently, the trend of traditional vehicles has been relatively warm, but the price shock of sharp price reductions of new energy will continue to be reflected, and it is hoped that traditional vehicles can also stabilize and resume growth.
The situation of conventional power passenger car joint venture car companies is gradually changing, Chery, Changan, Geely and the joint venture three strong market is still strong, FAW-Volkswagen is the absolute leader in the joint venture, and the independent brand compared with the joint venture fuel vehicle advantage is not obvious, the joint venture car company's fuel vehicle technology is still super strong.
7. The trend of production and sales classification of commercial vehicle enterprises
The overall trend of the commercial vehicle market is low, with a year-on-year decrease of 30% in 2022, showing a rare ultra-low growth rate in the past.
In 2023, the cumulative manufacturer sales volume of generalized commercial vehicles will be 4.2977 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 18.6%; From January to April 2024, the sales volume of commercial vehicles in the broad sense was 1.45 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6%. The start of 2024 was mainly based on base factors, followed by stable performance from March to April under a high base, and weak growth of broad commercial vehicles in April 2024.
The main manufacturers in the commercial vehicle market are Beiqi Foton, SAIC-GM-Wuling, Dongfeng Motor, Changan Automobile, China National Heavy Duty Truck, etc., among which Changan and FAW have relatively strong performance, and Jiangling has a strong year-on-year performance. China FAW and China National Heavy Duty Truck in heavy trucks are performing very well, and some second-tier enterprises are still under pressure.
8. The classification trend of production and sales of micro-car enterprises
In 2023, the cumulative sales volume of micro cars will be 882,400 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 6.3%; From January to April 2024, the cumulative sales of micro-cars totaled 246,500 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 3.2%; The total sales volume of micro cars in April was 85,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% and a month-on-month increase of 1.9%.
In 2023, Wuling's trend will be relatively strong, followed by a sharp adjustment in January 2024, and the sales of major manufacturers will rebound from March to April. In 2024, Changan's micro-car is relatively strong.
9. The trend of production and sales classification of light truck enterprises
In 2023, the cumulative sales volume of manufacturers and trucks will be 2,927,300 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 22.8%; From January to April 2024, the cumulative sales of trucks totaled 1,049,300 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 5.8%; The total sales of trucks in April were 253,600 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% and a month-on-month decrease of 25.3%.
From January to April 2024, the cumulative sales of light trucks were 649,400 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 3.4%; In April, the sales volume of light trucks was 158,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 24.5%.
The high growth of trucks in the early stage is mainly due to the impact of the elimination of diesel vehicles in China III, and strong measures have been taken to eliminate China III, bringing huge replacement increments such as gas heavy trucks. With the new round of trade-in, there is still potential for growth in the auto market.
In 2024, the main manufacturers of light trucks will be more differentiated, and Xinyuan Automobile will increase sharply year-on-year in April last year, but Foton and Dongfeng's light trucks will decline year-on-year in April last year.
Changan Automobile and Xinyuan Automobile have been upgraded from strong micro truck enterprises to strong light truck camps.
10. Classification trend of production and sales of medium and heavy-duty truck enterprises
In 2019, the cumulative sales volume of medium and heavy trucks was 1,313,600 units, a cumulative decrease of 0.9%; In 2020, the cumulative sales volume of medium and heavy trucks was 1.778 million units, with a cumulative growth rate of 35%; In 2021, the cumulative sales of medium and heavy trucks were 1.572 million units, a cumulative decrease of 12%; In 2022, the sales volume of medium and heavy trucks will be 767,500 units, a cumulative decrease of 51%; In 2023, the cumulative sales volume of medium and heavy-duty trucks will be 1,018,100 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 32.7%.
From January to April 2024, the cumulative sales volume of medium and heavy trucks will be 399,800 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 10.1%; In April, the sales volume of medium and heavy trucks was 95,200 units, down 0.3% year-on-year and 26.6% month-on-month.
The high growth of heavy trucks in the early stage is mainly due to the growth of demand for road transportation driven by e-commerce logistics, coupled with the rapid growth of financial loans. Under the influence of the epidemic, the trend of e-commerce of residential consumption has further strengthened the driving force of logistics and transportation, and there are also comprehensive factors such as the scrapping and renewal of China III and the pull of investment. Due to the high penetration of auto finance, the problem is gradually exposed, and the consumption pressure of the auto market is greater.
In 2024, the main trend will be differentiated, Sinotruk and Shaanxi Automobile will export stronger heavy trucks to Russia, and FAW heavy trucks and heavy trucks will gradually recover. Foton heavy trucks have been weak recently.
This year, Sinotruk and Shaanxi Automobile have a strong start, FAW and Dongfeng, the leading heavy trucks, still need to further strengthen product competition and market development, and the gap between second-tier heavy trucks and major car companies is still huge.
11. Sales trend of light passenger car enterprises
In 2023, the total sales volume of passenger cars by bus manufacturers will be 488,100 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 19.6%; From January to April 2024, the cumulative sales of buses totaled 158,600 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 14.9%; The total sales volume of passenger cars in April was 44,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% and a month-on-month decrease of 15.6%.
From January to April 2024, the cumulative sales volume of light passenger cars will be 126,700 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 7.6%; In April, the sales volume of light passenger cars was 34,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 9.9% and a month-on-month decrease of 21%.
In March, light passenger car enterprises were basically dominated by a month-on-month surge, and fell sharply in April, with strong growth such as JAC, and weak month-on-month performance of other light passenger car enterprises. Recently, the light passenger car market has continued to change, and second-tier manufacturers have risen. In the past two years, Chang'an has a super strong trend, followed by SAIC Maxus and Jiangling. SAIC Maxus's export performance is very strong.
12. Sales trend of large and medium-sized bus enterprises
In 2023, the cumulative sales volume of manufacturers and medium-sized customers will be 91,700 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 3.9%; From January to April 2024, the cumulative sales of large and medium-sized customers will be 32,000 units, with a cumulative growth rate of 57.9%; In April, the sales volume of large and medium-sized customers was 10,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 52.5% and a month-on-month increase of 8.3%.
In the first two years, the performance of large and medium-sized passengers was strong, and the year-on-year growth showed high growth, which was mainly due to the subsidy market for new energy buses, and it was also the result of local government promotion. In the past two years, subsidies have faded, so large and medium-sized buses have declined greatly, but at present, local governments are short of money, and although the performance of bus models in 2024 has increased, fuel buses have picked up.
In 2024, the large passenger market will still rely on the chaos of new energy buses, and with the withdrawal of policies, bus overdraft is more obvious, and the large and medium-sized passenger market will continue to fluctuate at a low level in 2024.
In April 2024, the sales volume of Yutong Bus, Zhongtong Bus, Suzhou King Long and other companies increased year-on-year, and the performance of second-tier car companies such as BYD in the large and medium-sized passenger market was stable.
Attached: A collection of recent information
*Analysis of the market structure of the passenger car price segment - April
*Analysis of the operating characteristics of the national passenger car market in April*【Monthly analysis】Analysis of the national passenger car market in April 2024*Discussion on the grading and calculation of new passenger cars—April*Auto market scan-Issue 16, 2024 (April 22-April 30)*[New Energy] April 2024 Wholesale Sales News of New Energy Passenger Vehicle Manufacturers*Analysis of the Bottleneck Improvement of New Energy Vehicle Development*Comparative Analysis of China's Automobile Exports*2024 China Automobile Exports Overseas Data Tracking-March* China accounted for 62% of the world's NEVs in January-March 2024*33% of the world's NEVs in March 2024
*Regional market analysis of new energy passenger vehicles in March 2024
*National Charging Pile Market Analysis - March 2024
*The national passenger car market had an inventory of 3.33 million units at the end of March and an inventory of 57 days*The revenue of the automotive industry from January to March 2024 was 2.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 6%, the profit was 104 billion yuan, an increase of 32%, and the profit margin was 4.6%*The release of the implementation rules for the car trade-in subsidy is a major positive*[Passenger Federation Branch Forum] Pickup market analysis in March 2024*Beijing International Auto Show-China's automobile will definitely develop globally*Auto Market Scan-Issue 15, 2024 (04/15-04/21)* China's auto imports fell 4% from January to March 2024 at 156,000 units*Analysis of China's automobile export market from January to March 2024*Analysis of lithium battery market for new energy vehicles-March 2024*Characteristics of the operation of the domestic market of commercial vehicles in China—March 2024*Model trend of passenger car segments in March 2024*Wholesale of new energy passenger vehicles in China in March 2024 was 810,000, with a penetration rate of 37%*Auto Market Scanning-Issue 14, 2024 (April 07-April 14)* From January to March 2024, automobile production increased by 7%, consumption increased by 4%, and the penetration rate of 2.08 million new energy vehicles was 31%, and 34 square meters of houses/cars were used*Price war status tracking in 2024 - Q1 * Scrapping and renewal and trade-in promoted the high-quality development of automobile consumption*Auto Market Scanning-Issue 13, 2024 (04/01-04/06)*Comparative analysis of the performance of Chinese and American auto dealers in 2023*Comparative tracking of annual report indicators of new energy overseas listed companies
*In 2023, the double credit of fuel and new energy will skyrocket
*1.69 million used cars in January 2024, up 35%
* Trade-in to reduce logistics costs - promote the strong growth of gas heavy trucks
*Comparative analysis of the trend of the national residential property market and the auto market*Analysis of the national rental online car-hailing market - 2023
*The price war in the national passenger car market will continue to be fierce in 2024
*We should never be pessimistic about new energy vehicles*The brand of the Passenger Association will continue to be brilliant in the past 30 years*In 2023, China's automobiles have achieved remarkable results, and the potential is even greater
*Ministry of Public Security Licensing and Driver Data Analysis - January-December 2023
*Analysis of the first batch of new energy vehicles in 2024
*Tracking of the recall status of the national automobile market from January to December 2023*Analysis of automobile ownership and scrapping exports