A small amount of early-maturing new wheat is listed on the market, and the industry leader "collects grain at a high price"

In early May, the domestic wheat market once again saw a "roller coaster" market. The suspension of the two auctions released a favorable policy, which promoted the phased rise in wheat prices. However, as local wheat reserves continue to be released, wheat prices have returned to decline. At present, the purchase price of mainstream flour enterprises in the production area fluctuates around 1.30 yuan/catty, and basically falls back to the level before the "May Day". Monitoring shows that the current milling enterprises in the main producing areas of ordinary wheat (national standard second class) into the factory price of 2550 ~ 2620 yuan / ton, down 30 ~ 50 yuan / ton week-on-week.

As usual, the wheat market will enter a relatively sensitive period in May. On the one hand, the new season wheat growth has entered a critical period for the formation of yield and quality, and the impact of weather changes (especially during the harvest period) on the market will be more obvious. On the other hand, with the start of the new season wheat on the market, the pace of merging new and old wheat is accelerating, and the market's attention to old wheat will also shift to new wheat.

The early maturing new wheat in the south is sporadically listed

In mid-May, a small amount of new wheat in Hubei and southern China was listed, and some companies began to be listed for purchase. At present, the purchase price of Xinmai in Jingmen Tianqi Wheat in Hubei Province is 1.18 yuan/jin, and the purchase price of Xinmai (bulk weight 770g/L, second class) in Jingmen Haoyu Rice Industry is 1.22 yuan/jin; The purchase price of Shandong Dongming Wudeli Xinmai is 1.24 yuan/jin, Anhui Bozhou Wudeli buys new red wheat 1.26 yuan/jin, Henan Zhoukou Wudeli Xinmai purchase price is 1.26 yuan/jin, and Hebei Daming Wudeli buys Hubei and Anhui Xinmai at 1.26 yuan/jin. Judging from the recent market situation, due to the uneven moisture and quality of new wheat, the quotation is also relatively chaotic, the local mainstream price in Hubei is 1.18~1.22 yuan/jin, and the listed purchase price of Wudeli enterprises in some producing areas is 1.24~1.26 yuan/jin.

Some market participants believe that the listing of Xinmai is still in the early stage, so the reference significance of the quotation of 1.18 yuan/jin is not large, but the listed price of milling enterprises is about 1.26 yuan/jin or has a certain guiding role in the opening of Xinmai scales.

Judging from the pre-procurement of wheat, the two-way and single procurement of wheat purchase and sales at all levels of reserves are also in full swing recently, and the transaction price is still about 2,600 yuan/ton. On May 6, Hebei Handan National Grain and Oil Reserve Co., Ltd. two-way wheat purchase and sales, with a planned trading volume of 2,000 tons, all transactions, the floor price of Chen Mai auction was 2,630 yuan/ton, the average transaction price was 2,630 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of wheat in 2024 was 2,600 yuan/ton, and the transaction price was 2,600 yuan/ton. On May 7, Tianjin Jizhou District Grain Purchase and Sales Co., Ltd. bid for the purchase of 8,759 tons of third-class and above durum white wheat produced in Tianjin, Hebei Province and Shandong Province in 2024, all of which were sold, with a floor price of 2,630 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 2,620 yuan/ton. On May 8, Jiangsu Yancheng Grain Reserve Management Co., Ltd. bid for the purchase of 8,000 tons of high-quality hard red wheat produced in Jiangsu in 2024, with a floor price of 2,620 yuan/ton, and a transaction of 4,000 tons, with a turnover rate of 50%. On May 9, Henan Nanyang Jiasheng Grain Reserve Management Co., Ltd. (City Reserve) two-way wheat purchase and sales, with a planned trading volume of 4,000 tons, all transactions, the floor price of Chen Mai auction was 2,660 yuan/ton, the transaction price was 2,660 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of wheat in 2024 was 2,660 yuan/ton, and the transaction price was 2,660 yuan/ton. On May 10, Shandong Weifang Grain and Oil Reserve Co., Ltd. purchased 5087.40 tons of non-rain wheat in 2024, all of which were sold, with a floor price of 2610 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 2595 yuan/ton.

Chen Mai is under pressure and the price is weakly adjusted

According to the market, after the "May Day", although the auction and sale of wheat reserves in the central government was suspended, the rotation of wheat in local reserves was still relatively active, and the market supply was still loose. After a short period of replenishment, milling enterprises just need to purchase weakened, superimposed on the new wheat market cycle is approaching, the pressure on the aged wheat market is increasing, and the price is generally weakly adjusted.

At present, the net grain price of ordinary aged wheat in Xingtai area of Hebei Province is 1.275~1.295 yuan/jin, 1.265~1.30 yuan/jin in Heze, Shandong, 1.26~1.32 yuan/jin in Xinxiang, Henan, 1.28~1.315 yuan/jin in Xuzhou, Jiangsu, 1.285~1.293 yuan/jin in Bozhou, Anhui, and the price in most areas fell 0.01~0.03 yuan/jin compared with the beginning of the month.

Local reserves of wheat rotate actively

After the "May Day" holiday, the sales of wheat reserves at all levels are still active. Due to the relatively loose market supply and demand environment, coupled with the beginning of the new wheat market, milling enterprises are cautious in replenishing the warehouse, and the phenomenon of wheat reserves in some places has increased in rotation.

preliminary statistics, Last week (May 6-11), a total of 120,696.46 tons of wheat from local reserves in Shandong were put into sales, with a turnover of 31,065.3 tons, 132,571.05 tons were put into Anhui, and 5,000 tons were traded, 46,949.24 tons were put into Shaanxi, and 36,740.21 tons were traded, 183,771.14 tons were put into Henan, and 20,241.32 tons were traded, 93,545.30 tons were put into Hebei, and 10,141.49 tons were traded, and 62,483.94 tons were put into Jiangsu, with a turnover of 45,169.75 tons. On May 6, Hubei Hanjiang Grain and Oil Reserve Co., Ltd. sold 2003 tons of first-class mixed wheat in 2021 at a competitive price, all of which were sold, with a floor price of 2570 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 2570~2645 yuan/ton. On May 7, Henan Province, cities and counties (third-level) reserve wheat sold 58,829 tons of wheat in 2019~2021 at auction, and the actual transaction was 6,500 tons. The highest transaction price was 2520 yuan/ton, the lowest transaction price was 2490 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 2507 yuan/ton. On May 8, Hebei Shijiazhuang National Grain Reserve Co., Ltd. sold 3,000 tons of first-class white wheat in Hebei in 2020 at a competitive price, all of which were sold, with a reserve price of 2,600 yuan/ton and an average transaction price of 2,613 yuan/ton. On May 9, Shandong Linyi Fei County local reserve (wheat) special auction sales of 2020 Shandong first-class mixed wheat 7339.41 tons, the actual transaction was 2245.99 tons, the floor price was 2520 yuan/ton, and the transaction price was 2520 yuan/ton. On May 10, Guangdong Grain and Oil Storage and Transportation Co., Ltd. commissioned the sale of 7,000 tons of Jiangsu white wheat in 2020, all of which were sold, with a floor price of 2,690 yuan/ton and a transaction price of 2,690~2,700 yuan/ton. On May 11, Shanghai Municipal Reserve sold 102147 tons of wheat at auction, and the actual transaction was 91,796 tons. Among them, the highest transaction price of wheat in 2021 is 2640 yuan/ton, the lowest is 2540 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 2590 yuan/ton; In 2022, the highest transaction price of wheat is 2585 yuan/ton, the lowest is 2520 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price is 2540 yuan/ton.

The wheat market has entered a relatively sensitive period

At present, Hubei, Anhui and other southern early-maturing wheat has begun to be sporadically listed, and it will take some time for the northern wheat to be harvested.

According to the latest winter wheat remote sensing monitoring data of the Central Meteorological Observatory, the proportion of first- and second-class seedlings in the main producing provinces was 95.5%, and the proportion of first-class seedlings in six provinces of Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Anhui, Shaanxi and Jiangsu was 70.1%, 78.6%, 79.2%, 77.1%, 70.7% and 76.5% respectively.

According to the usual practice, mid-May to early June is a sensitive period for the wheat market, and the market sentiment and market will fluctuate accordingly if there is a slight wind and grass, so the weather conditions in the main producing areas will still be the focus of market attention in the later period.

Due to the continuous decline in prices since the beginning of this year, the market's expectations for the purchase price of new wheat have also been repeatedly adjusted, and the overall expectation is not high at present. The mainstream view of the market is that if there is no major meteorological change in the later period, the summer grain wheat will be harvested, and the price of new wheat may be 2500~2600 yuan/ton. (This article was originally published in the A03 edition of the Grain and Oil Market News on May 14, 2024)