Text丨Qi Yongchao
"Rising and consolidating" is an important feature of the recent market, which indicates that the bears are exhausted and new long forces may be accumulating. Yesterday we also discussed with you in the form of a questionnaire, how will the market interpret in the future? Nearly half of the votes were for "bulls on the road, increase positions on dips". At the same time, in the current market, many main lines are still making efforts, such as household appliances in the real estate chain, and today I will focus on this sector.
The market shrinks and fluctuates, and the theme of anti-fall home appliances is popular
On Monday, the market made another "fake move", and the Shanghai Composite Index opened low and moved high on the same day, recovering lost ground during the session. On Tuesday, the market maintained a range-bound trend.
The recent weakening of the market is related to the impact of a number of factors, such as the demand for technical consolidation in the market after the previous continuous rise, the impact of external fluctuations on A-shares, and the impact of other event factors on the market.
On the whole, the index still "refuses" the deep adjustment, and the resilience is increasing, however, the indices have now entered a new platform consolidation range, and the market outlook still needs to be selected in a directional manner, such as an upward breakthrough signal. In fact, our survey of "investment friends" in yesterday's article showed that nearly 50% of voters chose the option of "bulls on the road, increase positions on dips" on "how will the market go next".
In this period, some industries have not turned off, but have continued to rise and fall, such as real estate-related industries and fields, including construction machinery in the upstream of real estate, household goods and household appliances in the post-real estate cycle.
Among the above themes, the recent performance of household appliances is the strongest, so let's talk about it.
Let's take a look at the stock price performance first, looking back on Monday, the home appliance sector as a whole rose by 1.5%, and TCL Smart Home has a daily limit; XGIMI Technology, Changhong Meiling, Martian, Ousheng Electric, Delmar, Haier Smart Home, etc. all rose strongly.
On Tuesday, there was some differentiation in home appliance stocks, but from a long-term perspective, home appliance stocks have continued to be strong for many days, and have maintained a relatively stable rise since February, such as up to now it has risen by more than 30%, ranking second among the 31 major industries in Shenwan. The Wind Home Appliances Sector Index has reached a record high (see chart).
Home appliances belong to both consumption and manufacturing, and in addition, home appliance companies are also accelerating AI, which is closely related to new productivity. Traditional industries are increasingly having new stories to tell.
Behind the strong rise of home appliance stocks, there may be multiple logics, including but not limited to the following:
Policy stimulus. For example, in mid-April, the "Action Plan for Promoting the Trade-in of Consumer Goods" is still in effect. In addition, home appliances themselves are also ushering in a large round of replacement cycles.
Driven by market style. Home appliance stocks as a whole tend to be a stable value style, which is an area where many white horse stocks have been concentrated in history. This style is attracting a continued flow of long-term capital.
Driven by real estate. This is mainly reflected in the sentiment item, home appliances belong to the real estate post-cycle industry, real estate continues to relax purchase restrictions and other measures, to a certain extent, led to the valuation of the home appliance sector to boost.
Export factors. Overseas demand rebounded, and mainland home appliance exports continued to grow at a relatively high rate. Many home appliance companies are large exporters, and the impact of this factor is also positive.
The logical stimulus of performance exceeding expectations. The 2023 annual report and the first quarter report of 2024 of a number of home appliance companies exceeded expectations, and the stock price led and formed a driving effect.
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What else do you think is the driving logic of the home appliance sector? Everyone is welcome to leave a message in the background to communicate.
For the home appliance sector, Peng Zu of "Decryption Industry Leader" said: This plate is the dark horse plate in the neglected white horse race, and it is also the leading plate going to sea.
Pay attention to several indicators such as dividends, earnings, and valuations
The home appliance sector includes the following subdivisions, such as white goods, black appliances, small household appliances, kitchen and bathroom appliances, home appliance parts, etc. Investing in home appliance stocks, the following indicators may be more referential.
Through comparison and screening from different perspectives, many companies have excellent performance in comprehensive indicators.
The following is a statistical combing of dividends (dividend yield), overseas revenue, valuation, and profitability indicators, and the specific values are as follows:
From the perspective of dividends (dividend yield), taking the 2023 annual report as the statistical value, the current average dividend yield of the home appliance sector is 2.93%, which is at a high level among the 31 major industries in Shenwan. Gree Electric Appliances, Supor, etc. are more than 4%, and such high-dividend targets have recently walked out of "stable happiness".
From the perspective of overseas revenue, based on the 2023 annual report, both companies exceed 100 billion, and many companies exceed 10 billion. In terms of proportion, many companies are more than 30%.
The list is listed in Table 1.
Profitability is the core indicator of home appliance stocks, and high ROE (return on equity) and low valuation targets often become the focus of funds.
Taking TCL Smart Home as an example, the company's ROE in 2023 has reached 57.73%, with a valuation of about 14 times.
There are many home appliance stocks with high profits, low valuations and strong stock price trends (or even new highs) like this, and the list has been screened for your reference.
(The individual stocks mentioned in the article are for example analysis only, and do not make trading recommendations.) ）