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【Abstract】China AMC: China's real estate clearance model is similar to that of the United States; China Shipping Fund: The medium and long-term bottom is gradually being established; Guojin Securities: At present, the short-term certainty is high.
1. Macroeconomics
1. China AMC: China's real estate clearance model is similar to that of the United States
Zhou Keping of China AMC Fund said that China's real estate is following the American model, rather than the Japanese model, and has chosen to clear out quickly in the market, rather than going through a long adjustment of more than 10 years. U.S. real estate sales began to adjust in 2006, fell by 60-70% in the three years from 2006 to 2009, and quickly cleared out, bottomed out in 2009-2010, and started to rise again in 2012. Real estate is expected to complete the bottoming in 2024-2025 and quickly experience a market-oriented cycle.
2. Huajin Securities: Monetary policy began to converge to neutral
Huajin Securities commented on the monetary policy implementation report for the first quarter of 2024, saying that the goal and transmission mechanism of weakening the effective demand by reducing financing costs were elaborated, emphasizing that economic transformation and upgrading have cooled down the growth rate of credit demand, and excessive investment can easily lead to idling arbitrage of funds. Weakening the expression of support for the real estate market and strengthening the promotion of moderate price recovery as an important consideration of monetary policy also shows that the pace of liquidity injection in the future will be tilted from investment demand to domestic demand, and consumption, as a basic source of less volatility and slower trend reversal in domestic demand, is relatively far from the relationship with monetary stimulus.
3. GF Securities: Pay attention to the clues of a moderate price recovery
Guo Lei of GF Securities pointed out that since the second quarter, there is a macro background for the marginal changes in the prices of various industrial chains, including the acceleration of the financial rhythm and the increase in the physical workload of infrastructure, the guidance of the rebound of external demand in some fields, the high production and sales of new energy vehicles and other fields, the incremental demand of emerging industries, the improvement of the consumer electronics cycle, a new round of equipment updates and the replacement of household appliances. Once the micro price bottoms out, it will extend the transmission of the industrial chain, which will further bring the PPI and CPI from a macro perspective to bottom out. This is one of the most important clues on the macro side at the moment.
Second, the equity market
1. ChinaAMC: A-share micro liquidity becomes an incremental market
Zhou Keping of China AMC Fund believes that the micro liquidity of A-shares has also undergone tremendous changes, from a reduced market to an incremental market. In a favorable financial environment, A-shares should at least be able to get out of the structural market, and Hong Kong stocks, which are the twin markets of A-shares, will also roughly follow the trend of A-shares. In addition, as the U.S. interest rate hike cycle comes to an end, China's new quality productivity desensitization in the next few quarterly reports further confirmed that the capital market system has been further improved, and large-cap growth stocks are expected to usher in the market again, which can be focused on.
2. China Shipping Fund: The medium and long-term bottom is gradually being established
The May strategy report of China Shipping Fund pointed out that the medium and long-term bottom of A-shares has been gradually established, but it is difficult to achieve a handful of future rises. The A-share index may still maintain a pattern of stock volatility in the short term, but the bottom is expected to continue to rise. It is still recommended that investors lay out blue-chip growth in the medium and long term, and continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in high-end manufacturing, domestic substitution, AI, new energy, medicine and other technology sectors.
3. Chunhou Fund: It is planned to increase the allocation of medicine and electronics
Xue Lili of Chunhou Fund pointed out that after the overall combing of the annual report and the first quarterly report in the near future, some small adjustments may be made to the position, such as: medicine and electronics, some stocks meet the requirements of cost performance, and will do this conversion, and reduce some sectors with particularly significant excess returns in the bottom position, such as home appliances and public utilities, and then add some growth classes, which may be the allocation of medicine and electronics.
3. Fixed income market
1. UBS SDIC Fund: The bond market will turn into a phased shock
Yang Feng of UBS SDIC Fund said that the current macro environment of continuous transformation of old and new kinetic energy has given rise to a shortage of assets in the bond market and low prices, which is conducive to the downward trend of risk-free interest rates and the continued strengthening of bond assets. It is worth noting that the central bank has recently frequently reminded of long-term interest rate risks, or formed a certain emotional suppression of the downward channel of long-term interest rates, and it is expected that the bond market will turn into a phased shock.
2. Western Profits: If the RRR cut expectations are disappointed, the curve may flatten again
The fixed income view of Western Lidl Fund in May pointed out that the adjustment of ultra-long bonds, on the one hand, comes from the profit-taking pressure after the rapid decline in the early stage; On the other hand, after yields hit new lows, the central bank warned of risks, and the market entered a stage of expectation adjustment. It is expected that in the absence of fundamentals, it will be difficult for the 30-10 year spread to break through the previous low, and the short- and medium-end spreads will be repaired. After the Politburo meeting, the market has expectations of RRR cuts, and the short- and medium-term end has a certain advantage when liquidity has not changed. If the supply shock is expected to fall short, the curve could flatten again.
3. Guojin Securities: At present, the certainty of the short and medium end is high
Fan Xinjiang of Guojin Securities said that in the short term, the bond market or sideways shocks, the current short-term certainty is higher, it is recommended to do a steep yield curve, pay attention to the ultra-long bond liquidity premium adjustment in May and June, local bonds, special treasury bonds or usher in the supply peak, the central bank to reduce the reserve requirement ratio and increase the probability of secondary bond purchases, superimposed manual interest deposits under the return of financial underallocation pressure increases, the current short-term certainty is higher, it is recommended to allocate 1-3Y varieties, and at the same time pay attention to the rural commercial bank underallocation of ultra-long bonds under the marginal buying of weakened to 5Y and 7Y two major varieties of allocation opportunities. Do a steep yield curve.
Fourth, industry research
1. Soochow Fund: The technology stock index may rise by 5-10 times
Liu Yuanhai of Soochow Fund believes that general artificial intelligence technology represented by ChatGPT technology is expected to become a "killer" technology, driving global technology to enter a new round of innovation cycle and enter the era of artificial intelligence. Fund managers said that with reference to the PC Internet era and the mobile Internet era, when the emergence of "killer" products or technologies in the technology industry may often drive the arrival of a technology era, the technology stock market may last for 5-10 years, and the technology stock index may rise 5-10 times.
2. Debang Fund: Insufficient capital expenditure restricts the growth of resource production capacity
Wu Zhipeng of Debang Fund said that the resource goods industry has been facing a persistent shortage of capital expenditure over the past decade, which has severely constrained the growth potential of the industry. Rising costs and increased difficulty in discovering and developing new oil and gas resources are likely to further dampen investment in the sector, potentially leading to prolonged cyclical volatility in the industry. Coupled with the imbalance between supply and demand in the context of de-globalization, it has promoted the continuous strength and even soaring of upstream resource stocks.
3. Zhonggeng Fund: The TMT sector is highly congested
Zhonggeng Fund said that the real estate sector rose sharply last week, and the policy is expected to heat up again, and there are expectations that the government will collect and store, as well as the full liberalization of administrative measures such as purchase restrictions, and superimposed funds from the high and low cut of the plate, resulting in some funds to buy the bottom and rebound.
The computer sector fell more, mainly because the TMT sector was more crowded, while the Hong Kong stocks, real estate chain, cyclical and other sectors formed a significant diversion of funds. In addition, the computer sector also has the highest decline in the TMT sector due to its poor fundamentals and high valuations.
Previous Review
| 01 Institutional Research Weekly: Policies take advantage of the momentum, bears and bulls change |
| 02 Zou Lihu in the tide cycle: Bulk has entered a ten-year upward cycle |
| 03 |The high-performance star manager has become a "radical"! |
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