1. Recently, the Shanghai Composite Index has returned to 3,100 points, and the important threshold has been effectively broken, and the market sentiment has heated up significantly. The fund manager believes that the probability of A-shares continuing to rise in the future is relatively high, and the market still has medium-term upside potential. Since the beginning of this year, the dumbbell strategy may still be a relatively effective investment strategy in the market, and it will be allocated along the two main lines of resource dividends and new quality productivity.
2. The Hong Kong Stock Exchange stated that the adjustment of the real-time turnover and daily quota balance of northbound trading will be officially implemented on May 13, and information such as the real-time purchase transaction amount, sell transaction amount and total transaction amount of northbound funds will no longer be disclosed. The Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges have adjusted the after-hours disclosure arrangement to disclose the total trading volume and total number of Stock Connect, the total trading volume of ETFs, the list of the top 10 actively traded securities and their total trading volume after the market closes on a daily basis, and publish the summary of the above data on a monthly and annual basis. On the 5th trading day of each quarter, the total number of shares held by investors in a single security at the end of the previous quarter will be announced.
3. According to China Fund News, there is new news about the new commission regulations. AMAC recently conducted training on the "Regulations on the Administration of Securities Transaction Costs of Publicly Offered Securities Investment Funds", further strengthened the relevant requirements of the "Regulations", emphasizing that it is strictly forbidden to link commissions with the scale of fund sales and holdings, it is strictly forbidden to promise securities trading volume or use commissions to exchange sales, and sales personnel are not allowed to participate in the commission distribution process. In addition, there is news in the industry that the stock fund has been converted to the brokerage settlement model or has been temporarily "suspended". According to industry insiders, the training made it clear that the old product conversion coupon settlement model must be prudent, and the future special inspection may focus on spot checks.
4. This week, the global market continues to be a big event! The Ministry of Finance will hold a mobilization meeting for the issuance of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds; China's central bank will carry out the May MLF operation; A-shares welcome IPO companies after three months; China's April economic "report card" and housing price data will be released on May 17; U.S. inflation data for April is here; Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and other officials will speak intensively; The U.S. House of Representatives version of the Biosecurity Act is hearing, and the vendor contract exemption is expected to be extended for 8 years; Singapore's Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong is stepping down. In addition, Walmart, Alibaba, JD.com, Baidu, etc. will disclose the latest financial reports; OpenAI will announce product updates; Google I/O 2024 will be held.
Global Markets //
1. As risk appetite has recovered, the VIX, a fear index that measures market volatility, is approaching its low level this year. This week, the United States will release key inflation data, which may once again affect the Fed's judgment on the node of interest rate cuts, which will trigger a new round of market volatility.
Macro//
1. China's RMB deposits fell sharply by nearly 4 trillion yuan in April, attracting market attention. Among them, corporate deposits decreased by 1.87 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.73 trillion yuan, and resident deposits decreased by 1.85 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 650 billion yuan. Industry insiders believe that the relatively large contraction of RMB deposits is due to seasonal patterns on the one hand, and on the other hand, due to the guidance of regulators, banks have taken the initiative to reduce high-interest liabilities.
2. CITIC Securities believes that the economic growth target of 5% is expected to be completed this year, and the need for substantial monetary easing at this stage is not high. The central bank may carry out monetary policy operations from the perspective of coordinating with fiscal bond issuance and easing the pressure on bank interest margins. It is expected that the central bank may cut the reserve requirement ratio in due course at the time of the issuance of special treasury bonds in the second quarter, and the subsequent deposit rate is expected to be lowered.
3. CITIC Securities pointed out that China's CPI and PPI rebounded slightly year-on-year in April, and the period of the greatest pressure on low prices during the year may have passed. It is expected that the follow-up CPI will still maintain a trend of "moderate rebound and small upward steps", and the CPI will have to wait until after August to rise to more than 1%; PPI rebounded year-on-year, but remained negative month-on-month.
Domestic Stock Market //
1. This week, a total of 62 companies in the domestic market have lifted the ban on restricted shares, with a total of 2.85 billion shares, and the total market value of the ban is 39.979 billion yuan based on the closing price on May 10. The top three stocks in terms of market capitalization are: Yahuilong (7.613 billion yuan), Bozhon Seiko (7.015 billion yuan), and Maixinlin (2.276 billion yuan).
2. There is no new share subscription in the A-share market this week, and there will be 1 new stock listed. Reddy's will be listed on the GEM of the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on May 13. Maifuse and Prosperity City Services will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on May 16 and 17 respectively.
3. Last week, 70 institutions conducted a total of 2,495 ratings, and a total of 1,212 shares were covered by brokerage research reports and received a "buy" rating. Among them, the highest degree of institutional attention is Jinshiyuan, with 14 institutions, and Gree Electric Appliances, Focus Media, Chongqing Beer, Tsingtao Beer, and Juewei Food have all received the attention of 13 institutions.
4. Last week, a total of 217 A-share listed companies were surveyed by institutional investors, which was a significant increase compared with the data before the May Day. Among them, 14 companies, including Baili Tianheng-U, Tianyue Advanced, Focus Media, Xu Ji Electric, and Qianjiang Motorcycle, were investigated by more than 100 institutions.
5. CITIC Securities said that the macro policy environment continues to improve, many positive factors are accumulating, all kinds of funds rush to promote the comprehensive repair of China's assets in the near future, optimism is budding, the market has returned to normal, it is recommended to dilute the game, and focus on the three main lines of excellent growth, low volatility dividends and active themes.
6. CICC believes that the recovery of the A-share market since February may not be over, and the current A-share market opportunities still outweigh the risks. In terms of allocation, the TMT sector, driven by the expectation of scientific and technological progress and catalyzed by policies related to new quality productivity, is still expected to perform relatively well in the medium term.
7. CICC believes that the Hong Kong stock market as a whole may show a volatile trend, so structural opportunities are more worthy of attention than index performance. The overall embodiment is a "dumbbell" configuration composed of three main lines: dividends, technological growth, midstream going overseas and service consumption.
8. A number of foreign-funded institutions said that at present, global funds are actively looking for more cost-effective assets, and Chinese assets are regarded as a value depression that cannot be ignored - China's economy continues to recover well, asset valuation is fully adjusted, and the cost performance is highlighted, and the relevant departments continue to promote the opening up of China's capital market, which will further enhance the attractiveness of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks to global funds.
9. Institutional data show that in April this year, the number of private equity institutions and the number of private securities products filed have increased month-on-month for two consecutive months, and stock positions have also increased. At the same time, the performance loss of private equity firms narrowed in April. Looking ahead, private equity firms generally believe that with the previous valuation adjustments, the release of favorable policies and the positive changes in fundamental expectations, the market is expected to usher in more structural opportunities in the future.
10. Last week, the three major stock indexes in the A-share market continued to rise in shocks, and as of last Friday's close, the index rose by more than 1% throughout the week; Hong Kong stocks as a whole also continued their previous upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index both rising more than 2% throughout the week. Institutions believe that the market began to return to the normal stock selection process, capital behavior driven by the simultaneous rise of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, superimposed on the value of China's asset allocation gradually highlighted, the market outlook is recommended to actively grasp the performance of growth, low-volatility dividends, high-quality new quality productivity industries, humanoid robots, chemical industry and other fields and thematic investment opportunities.
11. After the release of the new listing regulations on April 30, the market has been paying close attention to how the pre-IPO companies queuing up for review on the exchange will be affected. In the first week after the introduction of the new regulations (i.e., from May 6 to May 11), a total of 7 companies planning to IPO withdrew their materials. If we add 1 company that terminated the "overtime" exchange during the "May Day" holiday, 8 companies have terminated their IPOs since May.
12. As of May 12, among the top 10 equity funds in terms of performance this year, 8 products are from the head public funds, including Harvest Fund, China Southern Fund, GF Fund, China Universal Fund, Invesco Great Wall Fund, Bank of China Fund and other products, of which Harvest Resources Select Fund has an annual return of 27.11%, ranking first among equity funds. Many top-tier public offering fund managers believe that they should continue to focus on allocating resource-based state-owned enterprises with stable cash flow and excellent Internet technology companies.
13. In the first quarter, the market value of electronic and pharmaceutical biology held by public funds exceeded 60 billion yuan, which were 61.981 billion yuan and 60.185 billion yuan respectively, and the number of shares held was higher than 480; The market value of the shares held in the power equipment industry was 42.91 billion yuan, and the market value of the shares held in the machinery and equipment, non-bank finance, computer and other sectors was more than 20 billion yuan.
14. In 2024, the high-dividend sector will become an instant hit and become the "sweet spot" of the market. Among the major indices in the A-share market, the dividend index has the most eye-catching performance. In the context of the change of market style, funds are quietly increasing the layout of dividend strategy funds. As of May 10, among the major A-share indexes, the dividend index, the CSI dividend index and the SZSE dividend index ranked the top three in the year, and the cumulative increase was more than 10%. The micro-cap stock index, CSI 2000 index, and CSI 1000 index, which are clustered with low-dividend stocks, all fell during the year.
15. Entering 2024, the listing of Chinese-funded enterprises in the United States has increased compared with before, especially under the increase in the threshold of A-share IPOs and the slowdown in the pace, many enterprises and capital have re-invested in overseas IPO markets such as US stocks and Hong Kong stocks. Since the beginning of this year, as of the end of April, a total of 18 Chinese concept stocks have been listed in the United States, up 38.5% year-on-year, raising a total of US$1.7 billion (about 12.3 billion yuan), a year-on-year increase of 215%, compared with only US$540 million in the same period last year.
16. There have been false records in the annual report of the special information for 5 consecutive years, and a number of former executives of the company, including the former chairman, are proposed to be fined up to 4 million yuan, and they are to be banned from the capital market for up to 10 years. The special information will be suspended for one day on May 13, and trading will resume from the opening of the market on the 14th, and the stock abbreviation will be changed to "ST Special Letter".
17. Muyuan shares received the annual report inquiry letter, and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange required the company to analyze and explain the impact of pig price trends on the company's operating performance in combination with the development status and trend of the industry, its own operating conditions and plans, pig breeding costs and changes, etc.
18. iFLYTEK said that the company has always maintained good cooperation and exchanges with Huawei and Handuan Robotics in the field of artificial intelligence.
Lujiazui Finance Breakfast, Monday, May 13, 2024
Finance//
1. The State Administration of Financial Supervision issued the "Reminder on Vigilance against the Risk of "Agency Rights Protection" in the Financial Sector, reminding consumers to express their demands through formal channels and rationally protect their rights in accordance with the law. It is reported that the financial consumer protection service platform has been put into trial operation, and the platform has opened two functions: complaint handling and dispute mediation.
2. Ren Chunsheng, head of the preparatory group of the Complaint and Mediation Center of the State Administration of Financial Regulation, is suspected of serious violations of discipline and law, and is currently undergoing disciplinary review by the Discipline Inspection and Supervision Group of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection and the State Supervision Commission in the State Administration of Financial Supervision and Supervision and the supervision and investigation of the Supervision Commission of Tongzhou District, Beijing.
3. The website of AMAC publicized 96 cancelled private equity fund managers, and the above-mentioned 96 cancelled private equity cancellation types were all "12 months of cancellation without management", which was the first time that the association had cancelled a private placement on this ground.
4. Funds quietly increase the layout of dividend strategy ETFs. Among the dividend-related strategy index ETFs, the average return rate since the beginning of this year is 10.62%, and the yield of E Fund CSI Dividend Low Volatility ETF is 16.78%. From the perspective of fund share changes, Tianhong CSI Dividend Low Volatility 100 ETF has the highest increase in fund shares, reaching 12.27 times.
5. The "blood transfusion" of small and medium-sized fund companies has become the norm, and Xinwo Fund has increased its capital twice in May, with a total capital increase of 15.9653 million yuan, and the capital increase has reached 11.40%.
6. According to people familiar with the matter, most of Ruifengda's private equity investors are institutions, and the company's products have yields of nearly 8 times in the past two years. Brokerage asset management sources said that Ruifengda's method is rare, and Jiangsu Ruizhu's private equity product holdings are highly overlapping with Ruifengda's heavy position company, which completes the transfer of funds through high-priced shares with poor liquidity.
Housing//
1. Shenyang City further promotes the settlement of foreign populations and relaxes the scope of people who purchase houses and settle down. For those who have purchased a house in Shenyang and obtained legal housing procedures, the property owner and his close relatives can settle in Shenyang City. Non-resident residents who rent housing in urban areas of Shenyang can settle down in Shenyang for themselves and their close relatives.
Industry//
1. The relevant units of the National Development and Reform Commission organized a research team to visit Changchun City to inspect the low-altitude economy. During the period, the research team of the National Development and Reform Commission inspected the China-South Korea Demonstration Zone. It is reported that the total construction area of the UAV Manufacturing Industrial Park in the China-South Korea (Changchun) International Cooperation Demonstration Zone is about 178,500 square meters, which will be constructed in two phases.
2. A news about the adjustment of residential electricity prices has recently attracted the attention of many netizens. According to the news, the valley peak pricing will be canceled from June 1, and the price will be changed to segment pricing, and the electricity bill will rise. The hotline staff of State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co., Ltd. said that they had not received the relevant notice. Officials in Sichuan, Jiangsu and other places also refuted the rumors.
3. Zhengzhou City and Shenzhen Cross-border E-commerce Association signed a strategic cooperation agreement, and the two sides will carry out all-round cooperation in the fields of talent training and platform construction required for the high-quality development of Zhengzhou's cross-border e-commerce industry, and work together to promote the standardization and process of Zhengzhou's cross-border e-commerce in terms of ecological construction, and continue to attract big and strong people.
4. Eight high-level innovation platforms in Xiong'an New Area were unveiled, aiming to vigorously promote the deep integration of supply chain, industrial chain, value chain, innovation chain, talent chain and capital chain, accelerate the cultivation and development of new quality productivity, and help Xiong'an New Area to build an innovation highland and a hot spot for entrepreneurship in the new era.
5. This year, the freight of the new western land-sea corridor exceeded 300,000 TEUs. At present, there are 21 rail-sea intermodal trains in the Western Land-Sea New Corridor, covering 152 railway stations in 72 cities in 18 provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) in mainland China, and 503 ports in 121 countries and regions around the world.
6. In the report "DCIG 2024-25 Top 5 High-end All-Flash Storage Security" released by DCI, a world-renowned technical analysis organization, Huawei OceanStor Dorado 18000 high-end all-flash storage ranked first in the recommended ranking due to its leading data security capabilities.
Overseas-
1. The IRS has conducted a long-term investigation into the huge losses of Trump Tower under former US President Donald Trump, suspecting that he may owe more than $100 million in taxes.
2. South Korea's Finance Minister Choi Sang-mu said that South Korea is preparing a plan to provide more than 10 trillion won (about $7.3 billion) to strengthen the key semiconductor industry.
3. Lilium, a German air car manufacturer, will build a new plant in France with KL1, a Swiss nickel refining company, with a total investment of 700 million euros.
International Stock Market //
1. Employees at Apple stores in New Jersey, USA, voted against forming a union. Meanwhile, Towson Apple Store employees in Maryland voted in favor of authorizing a strike, with a shutdown date yet to be set.
2. The U.S. Postal Service plans to increase the price of high-volume package shipping by 25%, and the price increase will take effect on July 14, subject to approval by the Postal Regulatory Commission.
3. A jury in Pennsylvania, USA, issued a verdict ordering ExxonMobil to pay $725 million in damages to a former mechanic with rare leukemia. The mechanic said benzene, a toxic chemical in ExxonMobil gasoline and solvents, caused him to develop cancer.
4. A Japanese Boeing 747 cargo plane returned due to hydraulic system failure. It is reported that the plane is a cargo plane of the American Polar Cargo Airlines, which took off from Narita Airport in Japan to Singapore, and temporarily returned due to a failure of the hydraulic system during the flight, and made an emergency landing at Narita Airport. A total of 4 people were on board, and no one was injured.
5. Arm, a chip design company under SoftBank Group, plans to develop artificial intelligence chips and strive to launch the first batch of products in 2025.
6. French President Emmanuel Macron will host the "Choose France" summit at the Palace of Versailles on May 13. French Finance Minister Jean-Michel Le Maire said Morgan Stanley plans to add 100 jobs to a research team at its Paris center.
Commodity-
1. Iraqi Oil Minister Hayan Abdul Ghani said that Iraq abides by OPEC's decision on production cuts, and whether to extend the voluntary production cut agreement will be agreed by the OPEC agreement.
2. Chinese companies have obtained exploration licenses for five oil and gas fields in Iraq. Among them, Zhongman Oil & Gas Group won the bid for the northern extension of the eastern Baghdad oilfield, as well as the midstream of the Euphrates River oilfield across the southern provinces of Najaf and Karbala. China United Energy Group Co., Ltd. won the bid for the Al-Faw oil field in the south of Basra.
3. New breakthroughs have been made in the breeding of wheat resistance to scab in mainland China, through the use of molecular breeding technology, systematic breeding research and excavation of breeding materials, and the establishment of a national collaborative innovation consortium, which has overcome the key difficulties that limit the improvement of scab resistance, and created a number of excellent new germplasms with high resistance to scab and excellent comprehensive traits.
4. The Baltic Shipping Exchange said that with the increasing congestion of the Panama Canal, the transit auction price soared, and the freight rate of one VLGC from the Middle East to Japan rose 29% in a week to 59,700 US dollars / day; Rents from Houston to Japan rose 13% to $66,300/day.
Bond//
1. The Ministry of Finance said that in order to further meet the needs of investors for bond purchases, it will appropriately increase the scale of issuance, further reduce the limit of single purchases, increase the sales quota of electronic savings treasury bonds online (mobile phone), and optimize the allocation mechanism of voucher savings treasury bonds.
2. Affected by the turmoil in the bond market at the end of April, the income of many banks' wealth management products with updated net value has dropped significantly. According to the latest data, at the end of April, nearly half of the net value of fixed-income banks' wealth management products fell, with a maximum decline of 140 BP, the largest drawdown in the year.
3. CITIC Securities said that it can pay attention to the phased deposit spillover effect and the decline in the growth rate of broad money brought about by the "manual interest supplement" standard. Looking ahead, the issuance of government bonds, including special government bonds, may accelerate in May, and it is recommended to pay attention to the relevant bond issuance plans and issuance arrangements.
Foreign exchange//
1. CITIC Securities believes that the Fed's interest rate cut is likely to move back, and the RMB exchange rate may still be under pressure in the short term.
Important Economic Agenda //
Lujiazui Finance Breakfast, Monday, May 13, 2024
Lujiazui Finance Breakfast, Monday, May 13, 2024
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