I have to admit that most investors' research and judgment on the historical cycle and industrial cycle are from the perspective of "rearview mirror": when the tide is surging, or even when the tide is about to ebb, can we make a conclusion about its rise and arrival. But there are always people who are obsessed with the cycle of things, to think, to understand, and try to accurately grasp the clues of the rising tide before "a tide rises and a hundred boats rise". Jin Zicai, deputy general manager and director of equity investment of Caitong Fund, is such a diligent seeker.
"The metaphysical is the way, and the metaphysical is the instrument." At the level of the Tao, growth and value creation is the Tao of Jin Zicai to observe, pass through and control the cycle; At the level of instruments, cycle research and judgment, industry selection, individual stock research, etc., are his investment techniques to capture various opportunities. In an exclusive interview with a reporter from the China Securities Journal a few days ago, Jin Zicai said frankly that the Taoist technique is his investment background, and at the level of tools, he still needs to improve. Seeking progress on the right path, gaining safety, and losing calmly, this is his current state.
Zicai Jin holds a master's degree in microelectronics from Shanghai Jiao Tong University. He has successively served as an assistant to the investment manager of Huatai Asset Management Co., Ltd. and a senior researcher in the TMT industry of Prudential Fund Management Co., Ltd. He joined Caitong Fund Management Co., Ltd. in August 2014 and is currently a member of the Party Committee, deputy general manager, equity investment director, general manager of fund investment department and fund manager of the company.
Investing in butterfly change
If we look at Jin Zicai's investment experience from a long-term perspective, we can clearly see a "butterfly change" in investment.
Jin Zicai was first known to investors because of TMT investment. At that time, the TMT industry, driven by the boom of the Internet, was calling for wind and rain in the capital market. Jin Zicai, who started as a researcher in the TMT industry and grew step by step into a fund manager, ushered in his own era. At that time, the choice of the industry and the heavy position of individual stocks, he repeatedly stepped on the "drumbeat" of market investment at that time, and was famous for the "stability, accuracy and ruthlessness" of TMT investment.
But he knows that if he stops at the individual stock level, he will be embarrassed to stay in a certain era. As a result, his investment philosophy and framework have accumulated strength, and he has clearly put forward his own stock selection framework: starting from meso-industry research, combining top-down and bottom-up. "First, what stage is the macro economy in; second, what is the stage of monetary policy and fiscal policy; Third, in this context, it is necessary to determine the dominance of consumer stocks, cyclical stocks or growth stocks, and finally implement it to specific companies. At that time, in the market trend of individual stock research for speed, depth and specialization, such "self-exposure" was not easy.
Put your money where your mouth is. From this stage, Jin Zicai has integrated the macroeconomic cycle, the meso-industry perspective, and the selection of micro stocks, and moved according to the situation. At this time, the market saw the continuous improvement of Jin Zicai: based on the macro cycle research and judgment, he was flexible between opportunities such as elastic growth, value growth, and cyclical growth, and with the research and selection of individual stocks, Jin Zicai advanced and retreated freely in the tide of the market. It is true that he has also faced challenges: macro research and judgment, industry rotation, and individual stock selection, no matter which link, requires an extremely deep "Tao". If the macro research and judgment is wrong, then the investment is the opposite direction; If the industry does not rotate smoothly, the "frustration" of investment will be very obvious; If the selection of individual stocks is biased, the top-down research and judgment will be deeply affected and the effect will be greatly reduced. Thankfully, the challenges have led to the continuous evolution of its systems and methods.
In recent years, the most important point in observing the criticism of fund managers by fund investors is the dulling of their perception of the market and the disappearance of investment sharpness. The renewal and evolution that Jin Zicai actively chose is difficult and difficult, but it is the right path to progress, and every step has its meaning.
Walk in the right way
It can be seen that in Jin Zicai's investment system and methods, there are multiple levels of professional requirements, including macro, meso, and micro. Investors may wonder how Jin Zicai can be able to do everything if such a multi-level capacity building requires physical and intellectual effort.
In this regard, Jin Zicai said that problems do exist and difficulties still need to be overcome, but in Caitong Fund, the institutional mechanism and cultural concept of all-round employment and work have been established. After the outline is outlined, it is necessary to continuously build a scientific, rational and systematic ecology of research and investment.
Specifically, first, the team establishes the core concept and maintains strategic focus.
In Jin Zicai's concept, it is clearly stated that the public fund industry must resort to systematic "tactics" and systematic institutional rationality of investment and research in order to maintain due resilience in the ups and downs of the market. Therefore, Jin Zicai focuses on promoting the systematic equity investment and research team of Caitong Fund, and strives to build a talent echelon with unified concepts, diversified capabilities and continuous evolution.
Second, the equity investment and research team of Caitong Fund is constantly enriching.
In the equity investment research team of Caitong Fund, the overall investment framework has been established: emphasizing the indispensable and trinity of "industry prosperity + individual stock space + dynamic optimization". Under this consensus, the team members "have their own beauty, and the beauty is the same". Jin Zicai is the backbone of the team in macro total research, and around macro research and judgment, all kinds of industries and styles can have their place. In Caitong Fund, there are also excellent fund managers from various industries and styles such as consumption, medicine, technology, and cyclicals, who either specialize in specific fields or can control a certain distinctive style. On the one hand, they are empowered by the team and the platform, such as the team's macro research and judgment capabilities; On the other hand, they also empower the platform, such as showing the industry and style opportunities they have discovered to the team and the platform, and build a better configuration mix at the aggregate level.
Compared with strict path restrictions, Caitong Fund's equity team obviously pays more attention to the result-oriented blooming of a hundred flowers. Such value orientation and method selection are to meet the most basic investment needs of investors, that is, the sense of gain. Of course, in order to have a better sense of gain, we still need to continue to improve, and what Jin Zicai's team is doing is: on the right path, we will do our best.
Optimistic about the direction of AI computing power
A few days ago, Caitong Fund released a quarterly report on many of the funds under management by Jin Zicai. As of the end of the first quarter, compared with the end of last year, the fund continued to reposition AI concept sectors such as Xinyisheng and Industrial Fortune Union. As of the end of April, the fund's net value growth rate in the past six months has reached 32%.
Looking back on the operation in the first quarter, Jin Zicai believes in the quarterly report of Caitong Value Momentum Mix: In the first quarter of 2024, the fund has made some further adjustments to the holding sector. On the basis of significantly increasing overseas computing power in the fourth quarter of 2023, the fund continued to increase its holdings in the overseas computing power sector in January, when the market was relatively sluggish. In addition, the allocation ratio of the media sector has been significantly reduced. In the current macro environment, it is difficult for the media sector to have a strong performance line for the time being, so the fund retains a small number of companies as the bottom position allocation and will continue to maintain tracking of the sector.
Specifically, for the AI industry, Jin Zicai believes that it has become "a tide of a hundred boats", and the trend of "moving from virtual to real" has been very obvious.
Jin Zicai said that AI computing power has always been one of the directions that the team is very concerned about and optimistic about. "At present, we believe that the market underestimates the sustainability of the performance growth of the entire sector of overseas computing power, which is expected to become one of the main lines of allocation this year, with both winning rate and odds." Jin Zicai further explained, "At present, there is an obvious competition trend among overseas technology giants on the large model side, which makes the upgrade and iteration speed of large models far faster than expected, and the demand for computing power, as the infrastructure of AI models, is expected to continue to be hot." Therefore, AI investment at this stage should focus on the direction of overseas computing power. ”
In Jin Zicai's view, this year's AI computing power sector may show a structural market. "This is different from last year's AI market, we see that since the fourth quarter of last year, many computing companies have officially entered the basic stage, so this year's AI investment direction may be more focused, we are optimistic about the participation in the construction of overseas AI computing power represented by optical modules."
In addition to the computing power sector, Jin Zicai said that he will also pay close attention to the possibility of overseas technology giants further developing the overall AI industry to the end side and application side, and do a good job in switching industry configuration in a timely manner.
It is worth mentioning that compared with the 2023 annual report of Caitong Value Momentum Mix, there are many "new faces" in the top ten heavy stocks in the latest 2024 first quarter report, such as Tianfu Communication, Dong'e Ejiao, Wangsu Technology, China Nuclear Power, and Miao Exhibition. It can be seen from the aspect of position adjustment and stock swap that in addition to the AI track, Jin Zicai also pays attention to industries such as power, professional services, and consumption.
Jin Zicai said that in 2024, in addition to the AI track, he will also pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the company's overseas strategy, and is also optimistic about the industry with clear domestic supply-side logic.
"In terms of going to sea, we believe that every industry may have a strong ability to 'go to sea', and its products exported overseas will bring new business increments to the company, but it should be noted that there are not many companies that really have long-term space and greater performance flexibility, after all, the expansion of overseas business is not easy, and it is not easy to occupy a place in the overseas supply chain, which requires the right time and place, so we have conducted a lot of in-depth research, and will continue to explore investment opportunities in this field in the future." Jin Zicai said.
"In addition, we have recently made allocations for some industries where the supply side is cleared. At present, many industries, such as education, have given birth to a strong endogenous force of fundamental reversal. Jin Zicai said.
"We will continue to study and track the fundamentals of other sectors, continue to adhere to the industry research as the basis, do a good job in the industry meso-allocation rotation, the pursuit of investment forward-looking, traceable and replicable, in line with the industry trend on the right track, invest in better companies, and keep close tracking, according to the dynamic changes of the company's fundamentals to make position adjustments, in high-quality companies to do a good job in the big band, and strive to obtain excess returns for investors." In the fund's first quarterly report, Jin Zicai said.
