At the invitation of Wang Yi, member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tei-yeol arrived in China on May 13 for a two-day visit, according to Huanqiu.com. This is also the first visit by a South Korean foreign minister to Beijing in six and a half years since 2017.
According to a statement issued by the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs, after arriving in Beijing, Cho held talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in addition to holding a forum for South Korean businessmen in China, and discussed not only China-South Korea relations, but also the economic and trade relations between China and South Korea.
From the statement of the ROK Foreign Ministry, we can clearly see the purpose of Cho Duiyeol's visit to China, that is, two strengthenings: one is the diplomatic relations between China and the ROK, and the other is the economic relations between China and the ROK.
Since Yoon Suk-yeol took office in 2022, the core of his foreign strategy has not changed, which is to strengthen relations with the United States and Japan, and to deter North Korea by strengthening the trilateral alliance of the United States, Japan, and South Korea. But this strategic shift has not actually brought sufficient security guarantees to South Korea, and has even pushed the Korean Peninsula to the brink of war.
South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Doe-yeol
The United States and South Korea, as well as the United States, Japan and South Korea, have continuously held joint military exercises, resulting in North Korea constantly testing ballistic missiles and cruise missiles in response, and even triggering a conflict on the "northern border" between the two Koreas, but fortunately there have been no casualties. This also means that the Yoon Suk-yeol administration's strategy of all-out tilt toward the United States has not worked, but has led to an extreme deterioration in China-South Korea relations by strengthening the alliance between the United States and South Korea.
Even the South Korean media "Korea Times" believes that South Korea, under the promotion of the Yoon Suk-yeol government, has fully turned to the United States, which has also led to the gradual distancing of Sino-South Korean relations, and the deterioration of Sino-South Korean relations is an indisputable fact. The economic and trade relations between the two countries cannot be separated from the political foundation, which also directly leads to the bottoming out of the Chinese and South Korean economies, and thus triggers a series of effects, resulting in the decline of the South Korean economy.
Take, for example, South Korea's import and export data. Last year, although South Korea's exports of automobiles and shipbuilding semiconductors increased, exports to China plummeted by 20%. As South Korea's largest export market, South Korea's exports to China have dropped sharply, directly leading to a 7.4 percent decline in South Korea's exports last year, and South Korea's trade with China has run a deficit for the first time since the founding of the People's Republic of China in 1992.
China-South Korea relations
With the emergence of this deficit, it is already difficult for South Korea to maintain its overall technological advantage over China, and it is easy to understand that there are fewer imports because of the availability of substitutes. But this is only the beginning for both China and South Korea, and in the future, South Korea will not only continue to reduce its exports to China, but even the global market of its core industries will also be squeezed by China.
There are three main industries for South Korea's exports: automobiles, shipbuilding, and semiconductors. As far as the current situation is concerned, there is only one semiconductor left in the field where South Korea leads China, and the rest has been surpassed by China. In the field of automobiles, China has become the world's largest exporter of automobiles, especially in the future when new energy electric vehicles are becoming more and more common, China's electric vehicle exports still have a considerable market, and whether it is in technology or price, South Korean cars can not be the opponent of China's electric vehicles, and the future of South Korea's automobile industry exports may usher in a cliff-like decline.
The reason why South Korea's shipbuilding industry can maintain a small growth is actually that South Korea feeds shipyards by "taking orders at a loss" in order to maintain the number of orders, but in fact, it is no longer able to compete directly with Chinese shipbuilders in terms of price.
In other words, if South Korea does not take the initiative to seek to improve relations with China, it may be hit head-on by China on the export of these core industries, which may be an important reason for Cho's visit to China.
Of course, there is also the fact that South Korea's importance is diminishing within the U.S. Indo-Pacific alliance system. After Yoon Suk-yeol took office, although the United States and South Korea have maintained a "close" relationship for a period of time, since the beginning of this year, media coverage of US-South Korea relations has decreased significantly, and one of the core reasons is that South Korea's role in the U.S. Indo-Pacific strategy is limited compared to Japan and other countries.
The United States and the Philippines are conducting side-to-shoulder joint military exercises in the Philippines, and Japan has joined as an observer, but South Korea has not moved. Australia and the Philippines are making trouble in the South China Sea, and South Korea is also silent. The United States does not want to include South Korea in the Aukus alliance in the Asia-Pacific region, but wants South Korea to take the initiative to apply and express its willingness to turn South Korea into the second strategy of the Aukus alliance.
Yoon Suk-yeol
However, the problem is that while strengthening relations with the United States has not gained much benefit, South Korea has offended China, North Korea, and Russia, which is not pleasing both inside and outside. In addition, in South Korea, the Yoon Suk-yeol government is also facing a difficult situation, first of all, the ruling party failed in the election of South Korean parliamentarians, and the opposition party took control of the National Assembly, so that Yoon Suk-yeol's next ruling will be constrained by the National Assembly. Moreover, the Yoon Suk-yeol government's foreign strategic policy in the past two years has not been accepted by the people in South Korea, because of regional tensions and the bottleneck of South Korea's economic development, Yoon Suk-yeol's approval rating has fallen all the way and has been at a dangerous level.
Therefore, if the Yoon Suk-yeol government wants to break the situation, it can only return to the middle line and improve and strengthen relations with China, which can not only ease tensions in Northeast Asia, but also promote South Korea's economic development and increase Yoon Suk-yeol's approval rating. Just as South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Doe-yeol said before the start of his visit to China, the visit will take the first step towards promoting the development of South Korea-China relations.