In May, the volume was reduced to 7,000, the winning rate of Shanghai brand fell for five consecutive years, and the blue card began to "ship"?

China Times

2024-05-27 14:53Published on the official account of Beijing China Times

In Shanghai, the number of Shanghai brand government releases is no longer announced, and the bidding rate of Shanghai brand auction results in May has dropped for five consecutive years.

On May 25, Shanghai released official data showing that the total number of individual auctions was 7,098, and the number of participants in the auction was 43,374, with a winning rate of 16.4%. The lowest transaction price was 93,000 yuan, the average transaction price was 93,029 yuan, and the winning bid price increased by 7 yuan from April; The number of participants also decreased by more than 1,700 from the previous month; The number of Shanghai licenses fell by more than 1,500 from the previous month, and the winning rate also continued to decline from the highest 23.2% in February this year.

"Today, I helped the customer to go through the license entrusted auction, and I was surprised that there was no one to buy bids at the national auction site, but the ones who sold the license had to queue up. Is the Shanghai brand really not fragrant now? We can see that this year's Shanghai license plate is gradually declining, the number of people participating in the Shanghai license is also slowly decreasing, the policy of purchasing new energy vehicles is also tightening, Shanghai this year's car license plate has dropped sharply, probably in order to alleviate road congestion, the number of license plate quotas will only become less and less. On May 24, Xiao Zhang, a scalper of Shanghai intermediary, told a reporter from the China Times.

From the original queue to buy bids to the current queue to buy licenses, does it indicate that the relationship between supply and demand of Shanghai license has changed?

The volume hit a 15-year low

In May, 7,098 licenses (including the number of individual entrusted auction cards) set a record for the lowest number of Shanghai auction quotas in the past 15 years.

"I didn't expect to win the auction this month, half an hour before the auction started, I started to study the bidding rules of the auction, and finally sold at the lowest price." On May 26, Du Ye (pseudonym) participated in the Shanghai auction for the first time and became the "lucky one".

In this regard, industry insiders told reporters that since the beginning of this year, with the continuous improvement of the penetration rate of new energy vehicles, the number of Shanghai brand has decreased significantly, from 12,482 in January to 7,098 this month. From January to March 2024, the total number of licensed vehicles in Shanghai is 108924, of which 48,457 are new energy passenger cars, accounting for 44.49%. Combined with the actual situation of traffic development planning, road traffic conditions, environmental capacity, etc., Shanghai has always adopted the principle of total control of motor vehicles, therefore, it is not ruled out that the future Shanghai license plate may be further reduced.

However, the market is concerned that with the sharp decline in bidders, the total number of Shanghai brand placements has only been announced, and among the more than 7,000 licenses, the proportion of new government placements and individual commissions has aroused interest in the industry.

"What does it mean that the number of deregistrations will no longer be announced in the number of licenses released in Shanghai from April? Is there an increasing number of withdrawals? I don't think the number of individual commissions should increase significantly, or keep it at about 3,000, but the reduction in Shanghai's new Shanghai license plate is certain, and the reduction in the amount of investment directly affects the government's revenue, from the highest volume of more than 13,000 to almost half now, we expect that the reduction in Shanghai's license plate revenue in 2024 will also reach billions of yuan. On May 26, Hu Wei, founder of a Shanghai-licensed intermediary auction agency in Shanghai, pointed out in an analysis.

Pan Shuhong, a deputy to the Shanghai Municipal People's Congress, has long been concerned about the Shanghai auction. In his view, the impact of new energy vehicles on the traditional fuel vehicle market is the main reason for the decline in the number of bidders, the people's demand for fuel vehicles has declined significantly, and the Shanghai brand has gradually lost its scarcity. In the past, it was necessary to use "grab", but now it is no longer as hard to find a card as before.

Chen Xiaohong, dean of the Transportation Planning and Design Institute of the Architectural Design and Research Institute of Tongji University, believes that the popularity of new energy vehicles is only one reason, and the number of bidders for Shanghai license plates has decreased, reflecting the return of consumers to rationality and normality.

"Before 2010, the winning rate of Shanghai Shanghai brand was about 30%, and the supply and demand were basically balanced, and there would be no people who did not need to buy cars to auction cards. Later, the winning rate decreased, the number of auctions continued to increase, the warning price (limit price) began to appear, people lost expectations, and even panicked, worried that the warning price continued to rise, and did not know when to win the license, so there was a phenomenon of auctioning cards one or two years in advance, and even the whole family auctioned together. At present, the winning rate of about 18% and 19% is a relatively normal data. Chen Xiaohong said.

Who is "shipping" the Shanghai brand

If you compare from historical data, in January this year, the effective quota of Shanghai individual cars in use entrusted to auction 2,933 vehicles, this value is at the high level of the number of Shanghai license plates sold in the past three years, and the number in March was 2,095. From 2021 to 2023, a total of 11,167, 19,917, and 27,150 vehicles will be auctioned each year, respectively, and the number will grow. In December 2023, 3,083 units of individual vehicles in use were commissioned for auction, reaching a record high.

"In April and May, the amount of individual entrustment should not rise sharply, and it can only be said that the overall market supply of Shanghai is declining." Hu Wei analyzed and pointed out.

Hu Wei, who has been engaged in the auction industry for more than ten years, revealed that a customer who has won 3 Shanghai cards in succession chose to clear all of them this year.

"I've seen the ups and downs of this customer's business. He is engaged in the catering service industry, in 2015 and 2016, the business was booming, the wealth accumulated rapidly, and he successively won 3 license plates through us, but after 2021, his capital chain had problems, and he began to mortgage assets, and sold all 3 license plates at the beginning of this year. The customers who placed orders for auction twice in 2018 and 2019 were mainly engaged in the construction industry, foreign trade, and manufacturing. Hu Wei said.

Some market participants pointed out that although the number of license plates and the number of participants are gradually decreasing, the market demand still exists, which may be affected by a variety of factors and the continuous expansion of the new energy market, It is estimated that the winning rate of Shanghai fuel vehicle license plates in the second half of 2024 will be less than 10%, and it remains to be seen whether there will be a new policy to support this "plate".

Editor-in-charge: Xu Yunqian Editor-in-chief: Gong Peijia

View original image 38K

•