Trillions of special national bonds are about to open the floodgates! Hong Kong stocks regained 19,000 points, and A-shares suddenly had two major positives

Look at finance

2024-05-13 17:09Posted on the official account of Guangdong Kancai

Under the negative pressure of social finance, M1 rare negative growth and IPO restart over the weekend, A-shares opened low today as scheduled, but the trend was not too weak throughout the day, and the Shanghai Composite Index once turned red, although the end of the market dived slightly, but the decline was not large. Moreover, Hong Kong stocks continued to strengthen, with the Hang Seng Index recovering 19,000 points, Hang Seng Technology recovering 4,000 points, and the technical bull market continuing.

As we emphasized in the article at the weekend, we don't have to expand the negative of social finance, there are long-term factors for China's economic and economic transformation to gradually get rid of real estate credit creation, and there are also short-term factors for the central bank to curb "financial idling", and the stock market is looking at the future, if the economy is really weak, it will only force the policy to accelerate the introduction, this week the issuance of trillions of special treasury bonds has been put on the agenda, and the economic data in April is not weak, PMI, exports, and CPI are better than expected.

Regarding the indicative nature of social finance on the stock market, you can refer to the following views: since 2021, the reversal of the real estate cycle has led to another decline in the economy, and the industrial structure will also undergo great changes at the same time. In fact, the plate structure of the stock market is already changing, and with reference to overseas experience, the importance of indicators such as interest rates, prices, and consumption will increase significantly after these changes.

Here's a look at today's headlight

Trillion special government bonds issued

The Ministry of Finance issued the "2024 Arrangements for the Issuance of General Treasury Bonds and Ultra-long-term Special Treasury Bonds", in which the maturities of ultra-long-term special treasury bonds are 20 years, 30 years and 50 years, and decided to issue 30-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on May 17, 20-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on May 24, and 50-year ultra-long-term special treasury bonds on June 14.

Specifically, the issuance scale of each term is 300 billion yuan for 20 years, 600 billion yuan for 30 years, and 100 billion yuan for 50 years. The first issuance time is May 17, and 22 times before the end of November: 7 times for 20 years, once a month; 12 times for 30 years, once in May and November, and 2 times per month for the rest; The 50-year term is issued every two months, for a total of three times.

The sea line has set off another climax

As the domestic social finance data fell short of expectations, the market's expectations for going overseas were strengthened again, and power equipment, home appliances, shipping and other sectors rose sharply. The European line of container shipping soared by nearly 15%, and the shipping sector Air China COSCO, Ningbo COSCO, and Phoenix Shipping rose to the limit; Power transmission and transformation equipment sector, Yangdian Technology, Igor intraday daily limit, Taiyong Long March, Jicheng electronic daily limit.

In fact, the overseas line has been very strong this year, the Straight Flush Overseas 50 Index has risen by more than 20% this year, and the overseas line is not only a plate for institutions to increase their positions in the near future, but also has completed a considerable degree of dissemination among retail investors.

We want to remind you of the risk here, a logic to complete the popularization of retail investor groups, often also means that the late awakened people get on the bus, the expectation is gone, the chip structure becomes crowded, and the plate divergence will increase. Going to sea is a long-term logic, but in the short term, we believe that there is a risk in the sea line, on the one hand, this year's rise is larger, there are more profits, and institutions are in the stock game, and some funds will be cashed out; On the other hand, the global manufacturing industry may not recover as expected after the second quarter, and the U.S. economy has begun to weaken.

However, the power grid equipment can be paid too much attention, because this is an independent logic of the boom track, unlike home appliances, machinery and equipment that rely on the macroeconomy, the development of new energy and the rapid development of AI data centers have brought about the investment demand for power grid renewal and upgrading, foreign capital such as Siemens, Eaton, Hitachi Energy and other orders in hand are increasing, and overseas demand is showing a high boom.

The utilities sector skyrocketed

Since last year, the narrative of "the real estate downturn has led to local governments having to raise the cost of public services such as water and electricity", and this year this narrative has been further upgraded - raising the cost of public services to promote the recovery of inflation.

Utilities can indeed increase in price, but they cannot be completely marketized, otherwise what is it called a public utility. And we do not agree with the logic of "promoting inflation rebound through industrial price increases", inflation has a cost-driven type and a demand-pull type, the current inflation downturn in the mainland is mainly because of the damage to residents' balance sheets, income has not been completely repaired and lack of confidence, the reasonable approach should be to increase residents' income, boost residents' confidence, and exert force from the demand side, and now the demand has not yet risen, and prices have risen, which is more likely to suppress demand. It is also very simple to understand, everyone's income is certain, and if rigid expenditures such as water, electricity and travel increase, other expenditures will decrease, which will crowd out optional consumption such as travel and car purchases, and it is nonsense to promote the recovery of inflation.

It's okay to speculate in stocks, but you can't hope that suffering will befall others for the sake of the ticket in your hand, which is a desire for profit.

Finally, as of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.21%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.95%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.80%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index rose 1.42%. The turnover of the two cities shrank slightly to 0.9 trillion, and today is the first day of closing the intraday movement of northbound funds. However, the southbound funds are still announced, and today domestic capital bought 8.8 billion Hong Kong stocks, and dividend stocks continued to rise sharply, and it seems that the market believes in the dividend tax reform.

Although the index did not fall much today, the market sentiment was poor, and the loss effect was obvious, with more than 4,100 companies falling, 77 companies falling to the limit, and the tide of high-level tickets receding.

Risk Warning:

The stock market is risky, investment needs to be cautious, this article does not constitute investment advice, readers need to think independently

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